The advertised potent cold front is well on its way early this afternoon now passing through the Panhandle Region. Ahead of the front wind is going to be picking up out of the southwest and be gusting at times as cloud coverage comes and goes.
Winds at the surface will be SSW-SW whereas winds in the mid-upper levels are from the west to west-northwest. Animation of visible satellite imagery clearly shows low level clouds moving northward at the same time high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. This 'change of wind with height' (and strong winds aloft at that) is the main-key to the severe weather potential though there is instability as well mainly south of I-4 across the Eastern Half of the state. Thus, for BLOG Purposes highlighted only that area for any strong/severe risk (as shown above).
Be that as it may, model guidance of 'simulated radar' is not really showing any severe storms - but despite that - strong winds at the ground could occur if a stronger updraft does get going. At this time, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has almost all of the state under a 'Marginal Risk' of severe weather into this evening.
Otherwise, the COLD FRONT PROPER is anticipated (per models) to stretch (as shown ABOVE) across Central Florida from near Port Canaveral to Sarasota around 10PM this evening. Several models agree in this timed positioning of the boundary give or take two hours either side of 10PM.
It might too be noted that light to moderate rain might occur AFTER the front has passed which means a COLD WINDY RAIN with temperatures in the lower-mid 50FS for a few hours AFTER the cold front passes.
Granted, by that time hopefully all will be well settled in 'for a long winter's nap' - as it will be around midnight to the wee hours not fit for a mouse that the colder rain will or might occur during.
I've included the earlier 'Forecast Discussion' from the National Weather Service (NWS) from Melbourne (MLB) that highlights much of the same mentioned herein .
It might too be noted that by Christmas Morning at sunrise temperatures might continue to fall or level off for much of the morning hours due to continued "Cold Air Advection' into the state from the northwest helped along with winds gusting in the 18-28mph range for a while.
It is expected that most of Central Florida will not get much out of either the upper 40Fs or lower 50Fs on Christmas Day. This might well be the coldest Christmas we've experienced since 1995 (though that one was much colder, well into and below freezing for several hours).
By Christmas Evening winds will be backing off under clearing skies, but temperatures will also fall once again. Saturday morning will be colder than Christmas Morning, with low-mid 30F readings possible all the way around to the south side of Lake Okeechobee (in the interior regions).
Across Central Florida we'll mostly see 'mid to upper 30Fs' possibly even right at the coast with Freezings possible near/along the Route 27 corridor - though expect it might be closer to 40F along the outer most barrier islands.
Either way, Saturday is going to be the colder of the two mornings, with Sunday morning not far behind. Warming trend, though at first slowly, commences Sunday afternoon and runs through until New Year's Eve.
The next 'bigger front' is on tap as of now to enter Florida on 'New Year's Eve'. There was one year I recall we had a 'Severe Thunderstorm Watch' issued on Christmas Eve followed later by a 'Tornado Watch' on New Year's Eve - that was at least 20 years ago, though I remember it well. The timing is about right between systems (one week) this time of year for such. At time, not anticipating we will see a 'severe thunderstorm watch' though with this system. The next cold front around New Year's Time Frame is at this point not forecast to be as 'potent' in terms of cold air.
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