TODAY: Two days left before Climatological Summer begins, and looks like Peninsular Florida is going to waste no time in 2021 to "Let the Wet' Games Begin in earnest. As mentioned in the previous post the other day, SUNDAY (today) would be the 'main show day' with some storms, 'possibly strong' to occur. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Central/South Florida (mainly interior areas) under a 'marginal risk' of severe category storms - that being, some storms could produce hail of 1" and/or wind gusts equal to or in excess of 58 mph.
The 'wind threat' is by far the greatest risk today and as for 'Central Florida" the areas where those storms are mostly likely to occur appears will be under low-to-no populated areas of eastern Osceola/Orange/Okeechobee Counties well west of I 95 but that is not to discount any other probabilities especially in Seminole County and or part of interior St. Lucie/Martin Counties.
The main cause will be plenty of lower level moisture, very cold air aloft, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates primarily over Central Portions, meaning a more rapid decrease of temperature with height in the 'mid-levels' of the atmosphere which leads to quicker upward motions (vertical velocities) - those combined with upward forcing during the time of the sea breeze collisions after a full day of heating and destabilized air that is moist and we'll be able to get some big 'lightning' going (too).
Not all will see rain today however. In fact, some if not most will remain entirely DRY, but we will see increased cloud cover all along the Florida East Coast by late today into the evening if even storm debris cloudiness drifts off to the east. The Storm Steering today is from west to east but it is very slow and not likely able to penetrate the Sea breeze until well after dark.
There could also be rainstorms or showers after dark near to over and offshore the east coast, especially East Central in the vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary, but this activity would be below 'strong/severe' levels.
It was mentioned previously we'd see an influx of dew point air (more humid) of 70F plus (for the most part for a good 7 days) and that still appears will be the case... but we will also be averaging Precipitable Water values (the over all atmospheric moisture content) of 1.5" or more on a STEADY basis (compared to 1/2" or less in the winter)...as we can see here, that indeed appears will be the case for days to come (the latest GFS 'says so' at least) .....
MONDAY: Chance of showers/thunder persists at almost any hour over night tonight into early morning Monday up through mid-morning near the old frontal boundary (Brevard County beaches area), but after that things clear up and flow becomes more east to west at many levels of the atmosphere. That means the east coast might remain dry after mid-morning through the rest of the day (but not interior and west side).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Easterly flow prevails; however, it appears the old boundary might begin to manifest/meld just offshore the east coast along the west edge of the GULF STREAM as an inverted coastal trough.
If so, that would aid to act as an agent for low level convergence and hence rain and/or thunderstorms to form just off shore if not on or near shore over night into the early morning hours, mainly from the Cape and South.
We'll have to wait to see on this one, but it looks to be in the cards for now. Otherwise, afternoon storms that can form will be mainly west of I95 and more toward the Florida West Coast.
FRIDAY- BEYOND: Depth of the wind fields becomes much more south to north and looks completely 'SUMMER" ish in all ways- with ample moisture , instability and sea breezes at work. It's too far out in time for now what nature these storms will take, but some might well be strong as well as would be characteristic of 'JUNE' thunderstorms.
TROPICS: It's worth at least pointing out that the GFS has been trying to bring Deep Tropical Moisture and Lower Pressures toward Florida come the June 8 - June 13 time frame. The Model Run last night showed a VERY active rain/storm pattern coming up (the newer run isn't completed yet). Regardless, earlier runs were also showing 'something' to go on around that time frame so it is worth watching for.
MEANWHILE: The gist for today is, 'some strong storms' today mostly West of I95 after 5pm. Cloud cover and rain and weaker storms might make it back to the coast, most likely after dark (unless one can go up along the East Coast Sea breeze earlier in the day).
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