Risk of a Strong/Marginally Severe Storm Late Today (East Central)

 

Late May Storm -2020 
 There are Signs / Signals today
Indicating that there is the potential
for a 'near severe storm' along and
east of I-95 Today

TODAY: First post in quite a while - as weather officially is getting into 'the warm' with no return to cold foreseen anywhere on the horizon. Ocean temperatures off East Central are getting closer to 80F now helping to make sea breeze - lake breeze boundaries potentially more effective than when the ocean is colder. That, and for today we have plenty of heating , just enough moisture (barely)..a  good west coast dominate sea breeze to work east across the state, lack of strong 'suppression from aloft' plus cold air aloft and some wind shear combined all could help make a situation for 'pre-summer thunderstorm like' activity with the bonus of winds and cold dry air aloft to add some punch to the crunch.

The best chance of a strong storm today, IF one can form, appears would be near to just east of I-95 from Volusia County southward down toward inland Palm Beach County and around the Big Lake (Okeechobee).

Noting that late in the day though wind across much of the state will be from the Southwest the East coast sea breeze running 'up the coast' form the SE-SSE combined with the winds of Lake Okeechobee could set up for two to even a three way boundary collision (s) later further north toward Brevard County. Watch out especially if near the rivers (esp. the Banana River) the late afternoon wind in that area seems unusually gusty (!). All eyes to the W - SW after 5pm if you are on the Barrier Islands.

Morning sounds are showing an INVERTED - "V" profile with drier air closer to the ground, a layer of very moist air, then colder and drier air above that. The D-CAPE values (Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy) as such then is more than sufficient by all indications combined with the cold air aloft to result in wind gusts in the 50-60mph (at least) , hence adding in that risk (and/or for small hail as well).

The big question though is IF a storm can get really started in the environment that is forecast to set up later today. At this time, things are not quite sufficient, and much can change as we get past the noon- 1PM time frame. It may be at that time (even) that it will become apparent that any storm risk at all will have vanished -- but then again, it might be come apparent that the risk is even greater yet still (!).

End of story is, the best chance for strong storm at this point seems to be near interior Indian River County and again from around Port St  John toward Titusville/Mims corridor southward into North/Central Brevard County after 5:30PM or so.

 TOMORROW-THURSDAY: Again, more chances for storms in the afternoon, especially on WEDNESDAY. Temperatures aloft might warm a little bit tomorrow so not so sure about strong activity (or even much at all except more inland) but that day is not yet here so will be watching.

So far, the GFS model has been hitting pretty hard on WEDNESDAY for much better coverage and possibly some stronger storms then as well.