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A Strong Storm Encroaches in on US1 and SR528 In Cocoa Late Monday Afternoon |
TODAY: Similar set up to yesterday with little change in the overall synoptic (larger scale) pattern. At the lower levels not much else has changed either, other than the day looks like it will start out not 'quite as cloudy' as it was Monday (given, it is still dark out at the time of writing) based on Infrared Satellite Imagery. Given what occurred yesterday (and continuity) the atmosphere should sufficient de-stabilize with sufficient moisture already now in place to set the stage for another round of heavy storms with gusty winds in the stronger storms - with occasional to frequent lightning at times (perhaps small hail in the strongest cores).
A mid-level trough just to the west of the state combined with a ridge across Far South Florida results in W-SW steering across Central/North Florida. At the immediate surface the wind is forecast to be from due south though a bit more of an easterly component is possible along the immediate coast from US1 and east. All this means that storm motion outside of the effects of outflow boundaries translates to storms moving in from the SSW-W depending on the situation.
The only 'issue' is in regard to timing, with the RAP consistently inferring activity will be 'hitting the coastal regions' between 2-3pm this afternoon, whereas even the RAP derived HRRR does not show this to be the case, nor does the 4KM NAM or the GFS, but rather those models point to the 4-6pm time frame, then lasting (and weakening) as it gets dark going to the mid-evening hours. Will side with continuity, and hence speak 'late afternoon' for the better 'time-frame' for activity. Temperatures aloft are still 'cool' without much to speak of over-head wind-wise - but 25-35kt wind aloft translates to surface gusts in the 40-60mph range related to the strongest of storms . Storm motions might be a bit slower today, so other than wind the bigger 'hazard' would be localized flooding in the prone areas that have already received a healthy dose in the past week.
WEDNESDAY: One more day of the current patter, with again storms favoring the region north of Lake Okeechobee to I4 for greatest coverage , including the immediate east coast. Again, the favored area appears to be near I4 south toward Osceola /Brevard Counties for mid-late afternoon storms to move even more slowly toward the east.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Pattern change. Though steering decreases even more, moisture remains across much of the state. South Florida more likely to get in on the 'action' by this time frame...and timing of rainfall, especially near the East Coast could get tricky. There are 'hints' that come Friday morning (for example ) some areas along the east coast could see showers/storms just offshore that might migrate onto the coast early to mid-morning time frame so will just have to be watching for these subtle changes in upcoming days.
WEEKEND: GFS consistent infers a drying out phase across the state as the high pressure surface ridge lifts north and deeper easterly flow ensures eliminating any chance of sea breeze convergence but for perhaps along the immediate west coast and across the Panhandle region. Beyond the Tuesday time frame there is not enough agreement between models to bother going into - though worth noting the last GFS the came out showed yet another tropical system lifting north toward the northern Gulf Coast region.
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