Man Your Life Boats! Large Rainfall Totals Possible The Next 10 Days

 

Purple colors means very high 'precipitable' water values
through the depth of the atmosphere

TODAY: If there were a Noah today, he'd be calling all to Get Onboard and Get with The Program because rains are a-comin' (!) but who would believe His Report? After all, it looks nice enough out there now, and 'I've got better things to do than be concerned about some mamby - pamby report about something I see no evidence of with my bare eyes.'

However, things are 'setting up' in some form and fashion for not only some large rainfall totals (esp. just inland from the east coast toward I95) today, but also tomorrow. And, for that matter, for several days to come for varying reasons. 

This is not a 'sure thing' however, especially the further out in time we go, but  the 'trends' have been that in some form or fashion there will be good rain chances persisting for at least at an intermittent fashion (with a few breaks in the cycles) for the next 6-10 days (at least).

Firstly, moisture advecting in from the west from nearly stationary remnant 'Nicholas' will be combining with a more SW-W (toward the east) steering flow, and that with the east coast sea breeze will result in a moisture convergence most prominent along the east side of the state later in the day along the west coast - east coast sea breeze merger and outflow boundary collisions of earlier shower activities. 

The large rainfall totals will not only be from all the available moisture (precipitable water) but due to the slow forward motions of the storm activity itself. Steering, though toward the east, is rather weak so storms themselves will be in no hurry to pull out once one unloads over a location.

The same situation will occur tomorrow in must of the same areas, with the north half of the state most favored.

Now, as one may realize another tropical system is currently in the process of evolving well east of Florida. This system which will likely be named is not expected to make landfall anywhere along the U.S. East Coast as it lifts northward and eventually curves to the NNE off the Carolinas. However, as it moves out, a trailing low level 'trough axis' - a bit like a cold front - will translate south and westward from it as it merges with a larger continental trough moving off the NE - and Mid-Atlantic States. 

That 'trough axis' will trail back south and west toward/across Florida where the remaining pooling of moisture from Nicholas will again come into play. So now we will have that moisture COUPLED with convergence along this newly formed trough axis from the departing tropical system, which if named, would be 'Odette'.

Between today and tomorrow, we could see rainfall totals between 3-4" in isolated cases (most likely along to just west of I95) but other areas could well see 2" inches plus, with wide spread 1/2 - 1" totals possible. That is only for the next two days from "Nicolas" more or less, alone; now, to consider what occurs when 'Odette' (if so named, but makes no difference one way or the other) is included, which will affect the state for another 2 days or so due to that 'trailing trough axis arching back across Florida', we can double that total. 

But hold on, as the GFS is showing a potentially potent tropical wave to be approaching from the east by the time these first two scenarios have been exasperated, which would only then prove to be another 'nail in the coffin' of moisture laden atmospheric mayhem.

'Sum Total" for Today through the middle of next week (at least) is to expect rainfall (not all day long, mostly in the late mornings through mid-evening) today through Tuesday. THEN, when the pattern changes but we still have moisture all about, another pattern of nocturnal and early day rains might set up for the east coast primarily for several days to come. So far, severe weather is not expected, but dangerous lightning strikes will be at stake as the primary hazard (as well as localized short-term flooding).

This post is considering a 'worst potential outcome' though. Chances are we will end up in the middle-ground realm - but still - rains are on the way to begin later today - for any one location though -such as your own - there is no saying if you will see such high totals or not - one place only 5 miles away from any other location can manage as much as 4 inches more than another location not far away.