Eye of the High

(altocumulus clouds made for a nice sunset)

...the title says it all, because that's where we are. Smack dab in the center of a vertically stacked high pressure system. If there was ever a day we would NOT see storms despite a somewhat moist airmass it would be today!. I really hope "Ma Nature" proves me wrong today, I really do.

As expected, the high over the Western Atlantic has retrograded at the mid-upper levels and Florida is wearing it like a baseball cap. At the surface the ridge axis extends from the center located over the mid-Atlantic region down the US East Coast. So it's "High pressure, high pressure, everywhere you look". It's a totally different story as one heads west though into the Mississippi Valley and the Southern and Central Plains where severe weather abounds (lucky dogs). But we have one thing going for us, and I hope you'll agree, and that thing is 'warmth'!...Ahhhh. Western Nebraska and Southeast Wyoming are getting dumped on by snow...as is the Denver, Colorado area.

So when will things get fun around here? Good question. When you know, please fill me in because I don't see anything remotely "interesting" here in like..'forever'. Don't get me wrong, there might be some changes in store for us as we go into the weekend and early next week, but at this time those changes won't be in the 'active weather' category. Just maybe a slight cool down. Well, considering we have been near record high temperatures the past few days, that sort of change would be inevitable.

So for today, honestly I didn't pry very hard into looking for an excuse as to why it could rain today, despite what I'm hearing on The Weather Channel this morning (as I type)...I just don't see an excuse for ANYTHING today...(shrug)

Launch of ARES 1-X As Shot From Cape Canaveral

The video associated with this launch is available on You Tube

Last Gasp Today At Rain

(in celebration of the potential ARES 1-X Launch today I posted this photo)

Surprise surprise, it rained last night and we even got a tiny bit of the flash-boom stuff, but nothing to write home about (or barely in the blog). I would consider that event a 'bust' on my forecast checklist as I didn't see a chance in blue blazes anything would happen yesterday (granted it didn't happen until well after dark).

Today: Strong high pressure is centered over the Western Atlantic and currently Florida is on the western edge of this system. A very deep trough is entrenched over the west half of the country which will dig even deeper as the high retrogrades west and becomes entrenched directly overhead by late Thursday. Until the high pressure is firmly overhead I think portions of the state have a shot at rain again today. But for east central Florida or any coastal community on either coast it's going to have to be before 4pm. Westerly steering currents (from west to east) currently in place will weaken as the high builds in and a sea breeze may form as well by mid afternoon on both coasts as it does so. Once that occurs the chances for rain along the coasts is slim to none.

Tomorrow: High pressure and subsidence will be the words for the day. A stabilized air mass under high pressure and drier air will reign supreme, squelching all chances of rain for about everywhere on the peninsula. The high will be directly overhead at least into the weekend. So enjoy the dry weather if you're so inclined to like nice weather (frown). By the way, Melbourne tied a record high temperature yesterday, and given they don't feel the impact of a sea breeze too soon, may even break the record high today.

Sweet Summer Has Made A Late Season Return

(My cat got to this poor guy this morning. I'm releasing him back to freedom. Click to enlarge)

Man it's nice outside today. Nice and breezy, warm, with a chance of storms...so they say. I'm not buying into the last part all so much though. Looks like it will be almost like one of a type of summer day pattern. The type of day where the wind is off the ocean all day, lots of high level clouds, and low chance of thunderstorms along the coast. And such it is today.

A weakly defined 'warm front' lies draped across North/Central Florida which is pushing north and basically damping out..like the last ripple of a series in the water from a dropped pebble. Its just sort of rippling and dying to become a non-entity by later today. In the meantime, a similarly weak cool front extends North/South across the central panhandle. It is by that boundary that all the weather will happen today.

The air mass over east central Florida this morning has moistened considerably since past days, but instability is highly lacking as is any low level forcing or convergence. We won't have the usual sea-breeze convergences today...and with no upper level triggers to manifest themselves it appears that what we see now is pretty much what we get for the rest of the day...given some variability in the cloud cover..and perhaps a very light shower..I just don't see cause for alarm today (as much as I'd like to be an alarmist). Let's face it, nice weather is nice, but change is good...so bring on the storms!

Still don't see much reason to set the umbrella by the door for preparations tomorrow as there really won't be much change. We will remain entrenched in a sort of bland, duck soupy air mass which I suppose beats Cream of Mushroom...but without the spices and heating the air is just going to sort of blow around and not do much. Hopefully, I'm wrong...only tomorrow will tell.

A Rehash Of Saturday's Post (so click me)

(the 'dayz' of summer)

Supposedly, if you click on the title of today's post it will take you to Saturday's. Good reason for that and it's no accident; that post was actually pretty accurate and depicted the current "sitch". No "tors" or "flangs" (flash-bangs). I like "bash" better (bang-flash)...problem is that's not in the correct eventful order for a "cg" (cloud to ground lightning). ROFLMFAO (ad naseum)!!!

If you read Saturday's post you'll know what I just said in the preceding sentences.

The front as discussed on Saturday is indeed lurking awkwardly off the coast aligned somewhat along the Gulf Stream and up the coast off East Central Georgia. It actually exists in our area as an inverted trough running from SSW to NE across the vicinity. Being as such, convergence along this boundary is non-existant and moisture at the necessary atmospheric levels is still lacking. Hence, I'm going to stick with my six-shooter and fire a round of "no storms today" to the Supercell Death Squad, or as what would be known in the Storm Chaser realms as those suffering from SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome). About the only thing we have going for us today is heat, but the coast won't see that either due to an onshore flow (wind direction) component.

I really don't see anything very exciting happening from the meteorological perspective until maybe Wednesday, and I'm not leaving much credence to the mid-range model guidance at this point. My best 'guess' is that we're going to have to wait until the next frontal system approaches which will not only enhance some deep, low level flow, but also increase the moisture throughout the layer to appreciable values. And that event is questionable. I know what the models are saying for when and where all this is to take place, but I don't believe it..and until I have a resource to trust from which to base a forecast on...I'll say the closest is the GFS model.

"Flat" Day Ahead

A hand, human liver and a brain make for a lucious holiday feast at last night's holiday party put on by a storm chaser

Normally when one hears such words in these parts the first thought is "Oh,, the waves are flat. No good surfing"...but in this case it means "no 'good' weather". We will have weather today...the kind that's mostly dry with occasional bouts of clouds and comfortable temperatures. A moderate ENE-NE wind might develop by mid-afternoon making the coast feel a tad cooler.

The models are all in very close agreement with each other, including the fact that they are putting the edge of rain right on Cape Canaveral; however, I believe that area depicted will manifest itself as dense low to mid level clouds off and on throughout the day mainly right along the coastal communities. All models also depict an inverted trough axis extending from just off Miami and off shore up the coast. It almost looks like this would actually be a manifestation of the Gulf Stream more than anything else.

In either case, the effect is the same. This pattern will hold tight for a good 2 days so until things change there may actually be very little worth writing about. Temperatures will be around normal with no extremes. Just typical early fall stuff out there...demanding that folks have something else to talk about besides the weather. Guess that means I'll be keeping my mouth shut for awhile.

Not An Altogether Ageostrophic Day

Above photo: shown is a storm chaser's car somewhere near Trinidad, NM

Index:

"sitch" - situation, like the syoptic sitch is heavy duty we might be in for a major storm

"siggy" - significant, like there's a 'siggy' chance of tors today

"tors" - tornadoes

"The sitch is bad, there's a siggy chance of tors today. Could be baseballs and flangs too."

Things are progressing as expected from the meteorological side of life. I think the other side of my life is less predictable than the weather. But here's the "sitch". A front lies NNE-SSW bisecting the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will progress eastward and be nearly on top of Brevard County by around 2pm. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure 'area' is approaching SE Florida, with arrival there about the same time.

Models: Today's forecast is based on a blend of the NAM, RUC, and GFS as they are all in relatively close agreement. Although not exact in nature in the short term, the end result is almost identical by most synoptic perspectives. Thus, other than localized affects and knowing exactly where/when it will rain, today really isn't too hard despite all the things that are going on. Seems weird doesn't it? The best way to approach today is with a broad-brush. It's impossible to know exactly when / where it will rain without the luxury of short-term or rather NOWCASTS. With little in dynamics and not so cool air aloft the atmosphere is pretty much ageostrophic, meaning not too good a chance of any significant storms which seems weird considering everything that's going on.

Expect the front to progress as forecast toward East Central Florida during the day but with not much associated action with it. The upper levels are too dry but last I saw our lower levels in the immediate area have changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the time that front went through last week...for the first time. So that does leave a bit of a challenge. We definitely will have more moisture to work with, but that low approaching SE Fl. will not affect us at all. I expect that what will happen is that it will either be absorbed by the front or linger around SE Fl. for a day or two. Either way the outcome is the same. The low will provide additional moisture to the front which will stream NNE into Central Florida later in the day. Believe it or not, it's not TOO likely to rain until after 2pm today with the greater likelihood being sometime after 6pm. The west side of the state might be oh so unfortunate to not see anything from this set-up as they will be behind all the action (the front). But that won't last too long, maybe a day or two.

The front should push through sometime near 8pm then linger very near by for at least a day but far enough east to put us in a NNE wind (YUCCH). Either the same low or a new one will form along it and rotate NE up the SE U.S. coast...with us just a smidge behind the boundary, yet close enough to still see a chance of rain. Once the low gets into the area around N. Carolina the front will retrograde to the NW and put all of Central Florida into a moist SSW regime for at least two days.

While we sit in this regime yet another in the series of disturbances which will be evolving in this very progressive pattern will be entering the lower Mississippi Valley and approach Florida. I'm not going to go any further at this point as we have enough to deal with on our plate with what's at hand to be concerned with 3-4 days from now. Agreed?

Not sure how the NE U.S. will fare in this set-up as I honestly forgot to look. I have interests up there and like to keep an eyeball out to see what kind of atmosphere they are toodling around in too! And you might too, so why the heck not give that area a plug now and then. I have a feeling they are going to get wet big time though. This was mentioned several days ago as a matter of fact when I first mentioned that we were entering a very active pattern as far as the entire U.S. is concerned (a progressive pattern). But that won't happen until that aforementioned low rides further up the coast. At least not in a more "siggy" fashion.

More on locally though. I'm afraid some of the 'worst' (wettest) of the weather may occur right around sunset. The opt out on this is if we get some good rains earlier that stabilizes the atmosphere. I think initially when the front goes thru the atmosphere will indeed have been stabilized, but with time as it lingers about it will revamp sometime tomorrow. We can leave that for another blog. Lots of bases to cover today. Look for a chance of rain from 2pm and after with the greatest chance from 4-9pm. There...that about sums it up.

Are We Home Yet?

The first storm pictures I ever took as a 12 year old lay above

The answer to that question is as expected a resounding NO. Meaning, we're not home to any siggy rain or storms and more of the same. I'm starting to sound and feel like a broken record. And why do they say that anyway. Wouldn't it be the record player that's broken? A broken record can't make any sound to sound like. Enough of the philosophy lesson, time to get down to the meteorology of the moment.

As expected, the high pressure system that had originally brought us all the cool air (remember that?) has moved on well into the Atlantic. As a result, we will receive return flow out of the southeast today with no dynamics and drier air aloft. However, things look a fraction of a air better today for a possible morning shower near the coast that would be very low topped and whimpy, whimpy, whimpy.

Meanwhile, the mean cold front will be approaching western Florida but will likely never make it there as it's main energy source will be gyration off to the NNE and stretching the front as if on a torture stretcher. Torture for us is what it is. There still appears that lower pressure and a big puddle of moisture will approach southeast Florida during the course of the day but never reach here until at least overnight. I don't think there will ever be a collision of forces as the front will be long gone. Really not much to say for today despite how hard I've tried. I would give today being just short of a nil chance of rain, but there is that remote chance so as I begrudgingly hang my head I mutter...it might just maybe. But don't sweat it.

In fact, it could be late Sunday when any real chance materializes. I'd have to say that the highlight for the next few days will be nice warm temperatures. But I wouldn't lather up the sunscreen just yet, as there may be periods of clouds just like yesterday. I'm too tired to write much more this morning. It's hard to dig up material when there's nothing to write about anyway. I think I hear the weekend knocking...gotta go answer the door.

On another note, I added a new video over there to the right. The top one. I was working all night to swap in the right audio and finally got it there but wouldn't you know that YouTube had some other trick up its sleeve and took it from me without asking. So I kept trying to get audio for it, but if it wasn't one thing it was another so I finally gave up and determined that YouTube is "broken" right now. So if you happen to watch it, the accompaniment is not of my choosing but rather the system's.

Pulled An All Nighter in Lieu of Another Day Of......

Looking straight up a palm and Into the darkness

Click to enlarge these...they're kind of interesting actually.

Yawn....stayed up all night working on a silly little YouTube video slide show called "Bad Sky". I know, that title has potential for many..uh hem.."comments" shall we say? Check it out if you want. If you're reading this from the blog itself you can watch a mini version of it without even leaving the page from the video column. Anyway, after finishing up I decided to go outside and take some photos in total darkness just for kicks to see what would happen and saw that little fellow you see above too. It actually was totally green, but something happened in the picture taking process I guess. Only got one in before it took off. He/she was near the ceiling of the porch; so, I was standing on a beach chair just to get close enough. Enough of the jibber-jabber, so what's up with the weather?

As it is, I just happened to check that out too :-). Today looks to be the beginning of the big lull before the 'storm' so to speak on Saturday. As if what we've had so far hasn't been "lull" enough...it gets worse before it gets better. But in a sense it will be better in that I think that by tonight the strong east wind that's been right here on the beach will finally let up. Yes, believe it or not if you're any further than about 1 mile from the beach it's like a completely different day. I was in Titusville yesterday and it was like, "where's the wind?". Then I crossed the bridges and got to the Port entrance and it was , "oh, here it is...Drat!"...

So again, today might be a little more calm than yesterday, and so far it looks like tomorrow will be much the same. High pressure will remain the key player yet again today in this seemingly endless parade of blahsville days. We picked up almost 0.2" here yesterday...woo hoo. But it's something anyway. Not so sure that will happen again today though. At least yesterday the models were forecasting it to some degree to happen...but not today, at least not as of last nights run. Tomorrow is supposed to be the same. The difference is that the high pressure is going to move off to the east to leave plenty of room for a front (Mother Goose and her hatchlings of storms) that will come in almost directly from the west and be knocking at the door around midnight Friday/Saturday.

Sure enough, the cap if you could even call it that is "off the charts" this morning LITERALLY...LOL. The dewpoint line on the sounding goes off to the left and separates from the ambient air temperature into no man's land. Almost looks ridiculous and to even say there will be anything beyond some clouds is giving it credence. But things can change..that's just how it was at..hmm..let me look..oh, 25 minutes ago. Geesh. High confidence in forecast today until around sunset because then almost anything can happen..but again..moderately high confidence there will be nada based on the models.

For the forecast I'm sticking with the NAM. It is very consistent with yesterday's presentation as far as where highs and lows and troughs and ridges will be. The only difference is that the intensity of all the aforementioned is about 1/4 of what yesterday's calling was. And this comes more in line with the GFS so heck why not? In essence, despite their overall presentations the result should be about the same. So that means nothing today or Friday. The wind will start to let up along the coast and start to shift to a more SE direction from it's current directly east heading. Enough is enough. Let's get to Saturday.

Saturday. Now the tables turn BIG time. Still to be a weak low bubble over S. Florida with the ridge completely out of the picture further east with a steep,sharp trough/front approaching from the Gulf (Mother Goose). The Tampa area will be first to feel the pinch from the front, but we have another game going on over here to due to that low. In fact, for the most part that low is the major player. Thus, Saturday could be wet. Precipitation is forecast to have commenced by sunrise and is depicted into Sunday morning which might be a bit overdone. However, the low will draw in moisture along with it like the Pied Piper and his entourage of rats. We could be hearing thunder on Saturday..in fact I'd be will to give the possibility a thumb's-up (yes...that's just one thumb).

So, the Pied Piper will come head on with the Mother Goose and kursplash..rain across the boards Saturday afternoon. I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't get toward a 60 percent chance before all is said and done. Will be interesting.

Should I go beyond Saturday or leave that as a surprise? I'll give you a hint...you won't need your galoshes (that doesn't reveal much does it?). Seriously though..it's dullsville beyond belief. Just probably really nice for at least 2 days. It's beyond the scope of this blog unless I want to get into a novel to cover the next period so cutting it off with that.

No Change, No Fun

Don't forget to check out the new videos to the right. They won't take you from this page.

Hey, chasing is what is all about. Even the comics think so!

Blah ad naseum. Another day of the same old song and dance, which really is pretty nice except it is kind of breezy along the coast. But other than that not much to say for today nor tomorrow as far as that goes. The first hints of changes to come is Friday when surface winds will begin to veer toward the southeast ushering slightly warmer yet ocean surface cooled air. Regardless, late Friday into Saturday will be warmer, especially Saturday. After that there are 2, count em 2, trains of thought.

1) a front will pass thru with little fanfare other than a wind shift and drier air; or

2) it's a return to the rainy season. As the high over us now moves out a low is forecasted to form over Cuba and move north to join the impinging front. In fact, the mess from the south is to be worse than the frontal activity. But the whole ca bash runs together over Central and South Florida...especially the east half on late Sunday and all of Monday. Monday might be downright raincoat weather all day if this scenario plays out.

For now I'm favoring the first one though as the second option is a new one way out of the trends of current and of past model runs. So I'm following the golden rule which is "stick with consistency until you can see the whites of its eyes".

And while we're at it, it seems that a wide area of the country is going to be in the offing for at least some 'weather' for a while now. In fact. it looks like a very progressive mean-five-wave pattern over the Northern Hemisphere is setting up nicely, meaning lots of changeable weather across the Plains, the Southeast, and up the eastern seaboard particularly from VA to NY. And the tropics are going to start humming in the Eastern Atlantic (a big perhaps). So we have a HUGE mixed bag of elements to focus on. The evolution is currently in progress in the S. Plains this late evening(early morning if one is on the East Coast). I'm interested to see what will come out of all this in the coming several weeks if not longer across the aforementioned areas, and what type of weather everyone will be experiencing.

Early American Tornadoes 1586-1870

4 Words For The Day - Coastal Blahs/Future Hopes

Photo above of the sun blocked by a palm and the other looks like some version of a Bird of Paradise

Recommend clicking to enlarge.

This won't be a hard one so I'm leaving it brief. Just look outside. See those clouds if you're along the east coast...probably fewer further west too? Well..that's today. Anywhere from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with only mid-lower level clouds, mostly cumulus and stratocumulus will be the rule of the day with a slight chance of a barely detectable sprinkle possible about anytime, although attm (at this time) it looks most likely to occur between 1-3pm and again around dark.

The wind will become a prevailing easterly breeze all day leaving the coast the coolest area. In fact, with all the clouds along the coast temperatures probably won't be much warmer than yesterday with a high in the 79-82 degree range.

Okay, that's the Coastal Blah part. Now for the fun Future Hopes.

Those hopes involve, if you can believe it, the tropics. There are hints there could be development of a system anywhere between the western tip of Cuba to Puerto Rico along a 200 mile wide swath anytime between Friday and for a good 10 days after that! So keep your eyeballs pealed open at all times and do not, I repeat, hit the coffins just yet for a sustained period because we must be watching at all times. L:-).

Already two separate models are either showing development off the western tip of Cuba with a TS or perhaps a good old 'cane moving toward Miami on or around day 10 while another further out is showing a system near Puerttthhco in about 2 weeks.

In other words, about anything can happen. But truth be told, it's going to be a battle between how far south the southern jet stream branch makes it and how strong the pseudo-Bermuda High will be. So there are so many unknowns it's ridiculous. IMHO..the next 5 days will reveal to us whether things will get active or not. If the stream gets too far south with this next approaching south...then we'll have to wait about a week for the area to recover ...so we could be talking about maybe around the 25th when another chance comes around.

For today...enjoy (how profound).

Warming To Begin

(above: a "Bird of Paradise")

Looks like the onshore flow has begun with temperatures now on a fairly rapid moderating trend. As of 2am the temperature is 58F here, but much colder inland and most other locales further from the coast the whole way down to Lake Okeechobee or even Naples.

Today, with the onshore flow and partly cloudy sky we should warm to around 76 degrees. Then tonight should only get down to about 65. Each day will be successively about 3-4 degrees warmer on both ends with a very slight chance of east coast showers under continued easterly flow, but no thunderstorms and not much accumulation (if any even occurs).

By Friday and into the weekend an approaching front will bring increasing chances or even a thunderstorm, but the front should barely slide through. In the long range I'm watching for the possibilities of remnant Hurricane Rick to bring in a good chance of storms around next weekend, but that is so far off it's strictly optimistic speculation at this point.

Cool and Dry One for Sunday

The mouse mat for paws with the mouse pointing to our next system ;- )

Looks like the 850mb trough has just cleared the area setting up for the full fledged "Cold" Blast to move in todaywith a low temperature this Sunday morning around 53 and a high of about 72.

The good news is, is that it will be very short lived. By Monday morning the winds will have started to swing around to the NE giving the immediate east coast a good warming with a low near 59-62...and a high near 77 and the trend will continue. The only fly in the ointment is that with the wind shift may come coastal showers...but only very light. That is generous too...but the possibliy will exist even more so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Photos Of FLorida Fall...LOL

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Stephen Sponsler (vortex2@brevard.net)
High Speed Dirt Blog: http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/
Cape Canaveral, FL \/
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Heat Is The Word Of The Day

(above photos: seagulls and beachgoers)

The title of today's post might be a little misleading for those living along the coast. If the sea breeze kicks in like it did yesterday by 1pm then the immediate coast shouldn't be any warmer than it's been the past week. It's the inland areas that will feel the pinch today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.......ad naseum....with the high temperature flirting with near record levels, which really isn't saying all THAT much considering we just finished summer, and we're pretty used to the heat anyway. But just as a CYA...if we don't get the sea breeze expect a high around 94, but again...I think we'll get one that will penetrate no further west than between US1 and I-95.

Well actually, the coast could get pretty darned hot too on Saturday. All this because we have stacked high pressure centers over the state creating some tremendous subsidence and compressional heating. However, the high at the lower levels should start to shift off to the east during the course of the day which will allow the diurnally driven sea breeze to develop. The front that was across north central portions of the state yesterday has all but died a painless death...it's tail end waved good bye last night right at sunset as cloud cover started to clear and shower/storm activity developed down by Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like that will be about the only area to see precipitation today as well..if even that. Overall, it looks like a dry one across the boards. I'm not even going to give potential sea breeze / land breeze developing storms a plug on this one, as dry air aloft has really moved in and the possibility simply does not exist. At least not currently. Saturday might be the hot one right along the coast though as another front will be trying to impinge on home territory and the high pressure center will be well off to the ENE by a couple hundred miles at least, thus we could end up being minus a sea breeze.

As suspected yesterday, despite what the one model was advertising as far as a frontal passage is concerned does not appear to be a reality; however, it does appear that we will see a wind shift for 36-48 hours to the NE and ENE as high pressure sneaks in from the west by early next week, but that will be short-lived as another series in the train of frontal systems approaches and the veer on around to the south...none of which will cool us down...at least not in the short to mid term.

Full Fledged Summer is Back With a Vegeance

The frontal system that was in North Florida yesterday has moved a little further south and will make it to a Tampa to Cocoa Beach line before washing out altogether by mid-late afternoon. It looks like a weak sea breeze should set up by 4pm about the same time that thundershower activity should approach as well. Actually, it looks like our rain chance will be a little earlier today than in our last two little 'events' of the past week. It could be as soon as 3pm...or at least there will be activity spreading eastward reaching the coast from Daytona and points south after 2:30pm...with the greatest possible impact between 4:30pm - 7pm. It will be a hot one today..but even hotter tomorrow so hold on to your sunscreen and iced tea.

All in all, storm activity does not appear that it will be especially strong due to warm air aloft, but that air was there yesterday and we still squeezed out some off shore lightning after 7:30pm...and the potential looks greater today with the boundary so close to the area.

The next front is right on this front's heals, and is currently forecast to shove thru on Thursday. However, some of the latest model runs haven't come in yet so I'm not hanging my hat on that one just yet. It is tempting to though given the very progressive weather pattern the lower 48 is in right now with the upper level westerlies just ripping across the country's mid-section from coast to coast. But we can leave that for tomorrow's post. But for now, it is worth mentioning that if the front does do what it is forecast to per last night's run, then it will be through with no real temperature change but will put a major damper on shower activity for Thursday and Friday..with the weekend seeing return moist southerly flow and showers...could be fun!

Thunderstorms Making A Surprise Come Back?!

(I don't know what kind of bloom this is..but it smells buttery sweet!)

Ah yes...the sun is shining nicely shortly before noon today, and that's a good thing if you want it to rain late today or tonight? That might sound odd, but it's a good thing (for that to occur). With good, unfiltered sunlight, the land mass will heat up nicely today and set up for a sea breeze this afternoon, which earlier was questionable. However, even with the current south winds it has an onshore component out here on the Cape. The big fly in the ointment for today is how much moisture can we work into the 700mb layer..which is still quite profoundly dry. With a better sea breeze we have low level wind convergence with the prevailing SW flow aloft...giving rise to the air at the low levels (convection). Other than the dry slot aloft...we are Good To Go for some 'boom booms' very late today and tonight.

A frontal boundary remains 'dormant' across the extreme northern panhandle at this time, and will remain there until it gets a good push from the next system to move into the Plains mid-week...at which point it will be shoved south by Thursday morning. But in the meantime, other than that little dry slot...we are set up for thunderstorms today through Wednesday..most assuredly (speaking) for Tuesday. Today is just sort of the 'warming up' to the idea period...if the atmosphere will succumb to such thoughts that is.

But for today, model data is all in agreement that it will be the east coast from the Cape and points south along I-95 and points east and around the Big Lake that will have the best chances of a storm. For the Cape area it looks like it will be almost any time is possible after 5pm...well into the night. Doesn't mean it actually will rain, but the potential does exist. So for those lightning photographers this could mean some good news is in the offing for this evening. And in the meantime, pull out the iced tea and sunscreen, coz it's going to be a warm one, especially tomorrow with 90 degree temperatures over most all of central and southern Florida.

About the only effect the front will have either late Wednesday or overnight into Thursday will be to shift the wind around to the northeast and dry out the overall air mass with shower activity restricted to the most southern areas near the Lake. But there are hints that ample moisture might reside regardless for some coastal nocturnal showers, so I'm not jumping on the "all's clear" bandwagon just yet! Stay tuned to your official forecasts for the latest until tomorrow's post.

Summer Part II Has Arrived (Minus the Storms)

(this pink flower hibiscus was the only one of the batch. All the others are white)

The title for today sums it up. The high temperature has risen to the 90 degree mark for 3 straight days (or very close to it) with no change in sight for the next week. Unfortunately, the ritualistic thunderstorms are not in the offing until at least Thursday. And even then they will be very far and few between. High pressure will hold fast between weak frontal passage attempts and during them as well. Meanwhile, things have picked up in the tropics with two tropical waves and a weakly organized area of low pressure, but I'm not coming out of the coffin for any of this activity unless we see some very significant changes in the upper level pattern down this way. And like our forecast is indicating, no such changes are in in sight.

For now it's back to the A/C morning, noon, and night. Our low last night was 79 degrees. It's cooler inland of course, as it always is during the late night and early morning, but the ocean is still warm and greatly modifying the air in these parts. The air show is now over, and for the most part was pretty uneventful as far as air shows go. Nothing like the good old days at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.

How Much Can One Blurb (Blog) About Blue Sky?

("Bird of Paradise" in Canaveral)

Blue blue blue. That's all one can see when looking upward from Canaveral today. But if you can believe it, it actually rained overnight just to the west of here, in one report over an inch. Yet at 8am there wasn't a trace of it (in the sky) to be seen. I thought I saw something on radar at 6am upon awakening for a short time but figured it was ground clutter. Guess I figured wrong.

In any case, the weather seems to be running on schedule with no more hiccups to occur in the near term...at least thru the weekend. There is a teensy chance of a shower on Sunday but for now I'm forgoing the possibility along the immediate coast. Inland areas seem to have the best chance, and maybe around Tampa Bay later on Sunday. But probably not the 'thundery' type.

All in all, it still looks like an uneventful weekend weather wise..but plenty of events across the country such as the Air Show in Cocoa Beach, a boat show in the Tampa area, the OZtoberfest in Kansas, and the hot air balloon festival in New Mexico which will surely be 'advertised' on The Weather Channel.

Good News If You Like Nice Weather

(above: precipation totals for my location in Cape Canaveral..4.53")

The title of this morning's post sums it up. It won't be as cool as it was this morning (Cape Canaveral got down to 72 degrees) Friday morning...and we never broke the 70 degree mark as suspected. Just to the west (across the rivers) they did..but not along A1A here. The remainder of today and into the weekend will be characterized by a slight warming trend and dry weather.

Originally it was thought that yet another cold front would enter our region very late Friday which would affect the central portions of the state through Saturday, but things have changed. It now appears the parent low pressure system now near NW Missouri will loiter to the north and move into the Great Lakes while the appending cold front will elongate NE to SW and never make it here, very typical for this time of year. So the cool mornings will soon be a faded memory for what now appears a solid week, with little to no chance of rain.

A slight onshore wind regime along the east coast will moderate morning low and afternoon high temperatures, but inland areas will not receive (or really notice) this. They will be cooler in the mornings and warmer in the afternoons. In fact, along the east coast there will only be about a 10 degree temperature difference between early morning to mid afternoon temperatures by tomorrow and continuing into next week.

So all in all, it looks like a nice weekend for an air show, a boat show, or a day at the beach or the attractions.

Could It Be...A "Slight" Chance of Rain?

(tiger lilies by the pool)

The long advertised first front of the season is currently located between Daytona Beach on the east coast to just south of Cedar Key on the west side. All atmospheric parameters as far as instability and moisture differences sharply advertise the boundary which is slowly sinking south.

Interestingly, the NAM model has been indicating precipitation with the front along the east central coast by late this afternoon for 2 days now, and now the short range RUC model is doing so as well for the past few runs. It does not appear that the front will "blast" through by any means. In fact, it appears it will make it to a North Brevard - Tampa region by late afternoon and just sort of loiter around a bit before continuing its southward progression after sunset. So what does this mean for us?

Latest sounding data is of little use as the air mass is undergoing some gentle modification throughout the day and will be continuously changing. So based on satellite imagery, surface analysis, and model trends it appears that some form of rain should be included in this 'personal' afternoon forecast package especially from Orlando and points east to the coast and south to the shores of Okeechobee and Ft. Pierce. I was originally thinking that the forecasted precipitation would reveal itself as only enhanced mid-level clouds, but will now kick it up a notch to traceable amounts of rain...maybe measurable. However, it is with great hesitation. The front and its associated moisture may linger just long enough in these areas for moisture to amass and generate some of this rain.

Shortly after dark..or by 9pm it should be over for the central locales though..with the potential lingering until after midnight further south.

As for temperatures, interestingly the Melbourne area got into the upper 60s early this morning, while the coast near Canaveral was still in the mid-upper 70s. With the front going through a tad slower than earlier thought, don't think Wednesday morning temperatures will be all so outstandingly cool; that will wait until Thursday, and even still won't be too great. The biggest change for the late morning riser will be that afternoons will be a solid 5 degrees cooler and much drier through Thursday and into midday Friday.

The next front in the series will be taking shape over the Plains tomorrow and Thursday and will entire our picture by Saturday. Along with that will be increased moisture (humidity) and the chance of rain will again enter the picture. Not by humongous amounts, but it will be there.

For today, enjoy the afternoon and keep ones eyes glued to the WNW after the 3-4pm time frame until dark if your looking for those rain clouds.

Fall - Phase I - Has Arrived?

(this image shows some kind of "boundary" aloft passing over the aparment stretching east-west)

If a water vapor image tells a thousand words, then the old phrase holds true. Much drier air aloft is already overhead, and even drier air resides in extreme North Brevard knocking at our door. At the surface, the dewpoint has dropped below 70 degrees for the first time in who knows how long (I would probably suffice it to say since April though as a wild guess...or maybe early May).

All in all, today will be a dry one with no change in the ambient outside air temperatures. After sunset and into early Tuesday morning it will be the very immediate coast that will notice the change with the drier air and a light westerly wind component. As of shortly before noon today the wind even veered to the NW, an indication that indeed a front has passed. It currently resides from a Palm Beach to Ft. Myers line and probably won't make it much further south during the day. And yet another front is waiting on its heels for post-noontime tomorrow. This will be the second half (Phase II) of falls arrival with an accompanying drop in temperature as well.

The models are continuing to show a chance of rain to accompany the second front after noon tomorrow along the central east coast, but as of now I have extremely low confidence of any such animal to make an appearance. Most likely what is showing as precipitation by the models will manifest itself as a band of short lived mid-level cloudiness.

Open the windows Tuesday night before going to bed because unless one likes it really REALLY cool inside with the A/C cranked up it should be cool enough for the meekest of souls to bear. I'm holding true to yesterday's temperature forecast other than it's possible that everyone other than those living within 3 blocks of the beach will fall below 70 degrees. Coldest temperatures will be on the west side of the state from Punta Gorda north, especially 5 miles or more away from the Gulf of Mexico. The warmest morning lows in the state will be found along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral south.

Looking into the future a bit, we can rest on our haunches for a while as far as anything spectacular weather wise to occur. At least until Saturday. The local air mass will undergo a very slow modification starting Friday with no more fronts poised to impact us until at least early NEXT week...if even that. Often these first fronts are more like a friendly gesture to remind us the summer is over, but fall still has some biding to do..but don't forget 'it'...because sure enough it will be here for the long haul sooner than you think!

Summery Hot...and Maybe Even Wet Today

Several changes are in store for east central Florida the next two days starting with last night. Overall steering has finally shifted from being easterly as it has been for at least two weeks to being from the west. The change occurred as expected late Saturday and was heralded by some brief rain after midnight. Those steering currents will remain in place the remainder of this week, at least until Friday.

For today, a cold front is currently located from around Jacksonville to Cross City. This front will sink into Central Florida during the course of the day then slide off to the east with no impact temperature wise. Ahead of the front the air mass is still pretty 'wet'...and with probably no sea-breeze today things will heat up into the low 90s, even along the coast. There is currently some scattered shower activity ahead of the frontal boundary along the west half of the state which will translate eastward during the course of the day. We might not wait for the leading edge of this precipitation to reach us for rain chances to pick up a notch. With all the heating and ample moisture in place, expect at least some widely scattered activity to develop in the 12:30-1:30pm time frame along the east half of the state (there is a caveate to this as noted in the next paragraph). Activity will then become more 'full blow' in the 3pm time frame and last until after sunset, mainly east of the I-4 corridor.

There seems to be a brief, relatively dry slot of air aloft currently over the area which may off set rain chances for a time early in the afternoon, but this should be gone after the more full blown chances move in from 3pm onward. I don't believe this front will actually make it through the area, but rather wash out completely over us; however, somewhat drier air will user in behind it for a time over night tonight and through Monday.

Then fall, or a hint of it, arrives late Tuesday in the form of yet another cold front. At this time, it appears the front will pass through East Central Florida mid-afternoon Tuesday...to be followed by yet drier air in earnest, northerly winds, and slightly cooler temperatures, especially during the overnight hours where "window opening weather" may very well be possible Tuesday and Wednesday nights at bedtime. But don't expect anything earth shattering, just cool enough to do that for the brave at heart (or with a tolerance for sleeping in low 70s weather). High temperatures will be in the mid-80s but with the air being so much drier, the change will be noticeable. The areas west of the I-4 corridor will see the biggest morning cool down as far south as Sarasota with temperatures into the mid-upper 60s. Actually, the more that I think about it...areas west of U.S. 1 may very well break the 70 degree mark. It's the immediate coastal area, surrounded by warm water on all sides, that will feel the least impact from this change in the weather. It's always the "very" immediate coast that is the last to feel true fall weather as a rule anyway...due to the surrounding warm water which takes quite a while to modify.

Anyway, the front may again provide for a shot of rain Tuesday afternoon, restricted to the eastern peninsula south of Daytona Beach where some lingering moisture may reside. But this front will shove even that possibility out to sea in its wake until at least late Friday.

On Friday and during the course of the week thereafter a moderate zonal (west to east) steering flow will reside across much of the south half of the continental U.S. with a fairly active pattern running along the jet stream across the Northern Plains...the Great Lakes..and the Northeast U.S.

The first of these systems may make a brief dip south into the Central Plains providing a shot of severe weather mostly over Kansas and Nebraska and maybe western Iowa late this Wednesday through Thursday, although northeast Okalahoma can't be discounted.

Florida may be intermittently affected by the extreme southern tip of a system or two, but for the most part our weather along the east coast will be dictated by a weak, shallow onshore flow after Friday which will modify the drier air mass to normal moisture levels. Not sure if this moisture will stretch deep enough up into the atmosphere though to induce coastal showers starting late Friday and into next week...but that's still 5 days away.

Fall Will Creep In (If You Can Call It That)

(Delta II blasts off Friday at 8:10am from Cape Canaveral AFS)

I didn't leave a blog post yesterday...as there was no need to with the ever continuing prevalent nice weather on tap. It was perfect weather for the Delta II launch though. Today, no difference, although some gentle changes are in store beginning tonight through Tuesday which will be fun to monitor from a meteorological aspect, although from the weather watcher stand point it won't be very exciting (except maybe tomorrow as noted below). As of this writing, the latest model data has not come in yet, but I'm not expecting any earth shattering new info, so decided to go ahead and post anyway.

High pressure that has been dominant across the center of the state the past many days will sink to south Florida during the course of the day and be located near the southern tip of the state shortly after sunset. In response to this the steering currents will shift from the east to being from the west by around sunset tonight and then be prevalent through Wednesday from that direction. A surface cold front will sink Sunday from extreme North Florida into the Central peninsula during the course of the day which will be our only real rain chance mechanism for a shower or thunderstorm for many days to come as it lingers near the area during the afternoon. Anything that forms along this boundary will be shoved toward the east coast.

This front will linger just along or south of the area by late Sunday until a reinforcing shot hits on Tuesday and pushes the whole shebang south toward the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning. It will be Wednesday and Thursday mornings that we will see our first 'coolish, dryish' mornings of the fall season. That meaning a low temperature between 72-75 degrees and relative humidity below 75%...not saying much, but it is a change :-). It is the western half of the state that will feel the bigger temperature change, but not by much.

The folks on the west side of the state today might not see the big rains they've been receiving the past several days. Believe that as the steering currents shift, there will be a sea-breeze collision set up along the western interior, and it's likely that is where most of the rain will remain today..mostly from Lake down to Polk County..then along the western shores of Lake Okeechobee. As the steering currents start to shift tonight the extreme west coast from Sarasota north might be prone to nocturnal and early morning showers into Sunday though, which will be interesting to monitor.

All in all, by late Tuesday through the end of this upcoming week it appears it will be dry with lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the mid-80s. Onshore flow beginning Thursday afternoon will lead to moderate temperature rise to nearly the levels they've been the past few days. That far out, rain chance forecasting would be strictly tongue in cheek to be perfectly honest, so no point in trying this far out.

Water OFF..Water ON..Water OFF...Water ON

(Above: "Gold Sunshine")

The atmosphere over the Atlantic nearshore waters and the land mass are just not cooperating in tandem to produce the desired precipitation along much of East Central Florida. Of course, if you don't want it to rain it's golden sunshine. Current morning data at first glance seems to reveal all the answers for the day...while the models are showing a different story altogether.

So this forecast will have two options : (1) A blend of what current data shows, the models, and past days trends...or (2) what my gut tells me.

(1) Current data shows that the atmosphere is very well saturated up to above 700mb with the driest air residing right on or above the surface. However, water vapor imagery shows much drier air throughout the layer has moved in since after midnight despite what the fairly recent sounding shows and this drier air expends well out into the Atlantic. Expect this 'drier air' reside mostly just well aloft and shouldn't be much of a factor (3) Some models indeed pick up on the drier early day period..but all agree that it will only last until early afternoon. So based on the models one is lead to believe that this drier air is short lived at the very low level..and by very early afternoon will be replaced by rainshowers moving onshore. However, by that time the true sea-breeze will have become established and washed out all hopes of such occurring.

(2) With all said and done, it is with great hesitation that I'm led to believe that east central Florida will receive little to no rain today despite what the model runs are showing. Interestingly, the drier air aloft is currently over much of the peninsula except extreme south. Models do show that rain chances will begin somewhere in the 2-3pm time frame west of the spine of the state and this leading 'voundary' will collide with a light onshore /Gulf Breeze after 5pm which shouldn't make it much more than about 10-20 miles inland. By that time whatever dry air is in place there now will likely have moved out. The caveate for the east coast is that models are still hinting at precipitation for even after the onset of the seabreeze. Whether this is just an anomoly or a sign of a change in the pattern of late will have to be seen. If indeed there has been a change, then the east coast could see afternoon rainshowers, but this would be a pretty big change, and I'm not willingly to jump into that pool yet without testing the waters. But leave it at this, if it does by any chance happen to rain today, it should be between 12:30pm - 2pm.

West coasters can hope for another shabang very late today...but just exactly where is not so written in stone as it has the past few days. Could be almost anywhere...as the story unfolds.....

"Freddie"'s Back

(photographers capture a Canaveral morning moment at sunrise)

The ashes of Fred have finally arrived as discussed yesterday. The first sign occurred last night around 10pm when the Canaveral area received just under 1/2" of rain in short order. Since that time most of the rainfall has been focused over the southern half of the county, but there's more in store for the rest of the day.

For today, the inverted trough axis is currently situated along the western Brevard County area with a heap of moisture waiting in its wings over the Atlantic. Shower activity extends beyond the scope of the radar. This activity will exist off an on throughout the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The trough axis will continue to slide westward during the day and into the night and will be quickly followed by a ridge axis which now resides along the U.S. East Coast. Once that ridge axis becomes the dominating feature the rain will come to an abrupt halt. Timing as to when exactly this will happen is a bit sketchy, but it currently appears it will be by noon Thursday. After that rain/thunderstorm activity will be limited to the inland areas and along the West Coast.

As the ridge axis strengthens the west coast may even find it difficult to squeeze out some rain..but that's almost out of the range of a daily blog issuance, so will leave that discussion to a more appropriate time frame.

It still appears that a cold front is going to try to penetrate the Deep South during the beginning of next week. This front will actually come as a "backdoor" one...meaning it will sink in from the northeast rather than from west or northwest. There is a variety of potential resultant outcomes from a backdoor front being from benign to a rainfall event as can happen this time of year. But for now it appears the only affect will be to drop morning temperatures into the low-mid 70s for a day or two...with the west half of the state seeing the greatest cool down in the morning. That's still quite a way off, so to generate a full blown forecast for this time frame would be nothing more than adding more hearsay to the fire. Just keep a heads up come the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

Subtle Changes Are Occurring

*Above: Sunset Over the Banana River as Seen From Cape Canaveral

Somewhat subtle to nearly astounding changes have occurred overnight along the immediate east coast that are quite surprising, and it appears that additional surprises are in store.

First off, the KSC sounding indicated precipitable water to be nearly 2.1" today, a far cry from the 1.67" of yesterday (much more moist), and this moisture isn't limited to any one or two specific layers but rather the entire column. This means, no real capping dry air aloft. The problem for the near future (for those who actually want rain) is that a narrow band of drier air is looming just off the coast. The location and movement of that sliver has two potential impacts. (1) It will sit there and prevent showers from forming off shore and moving onto the coast, (2) it might shift over the area and prevent showers from either forming on the immediate coast or kill anything that moves in from the east. Hence, even though we are more saturated today we still may not see any rain, at least not until late this afternoon.

The dry slot is on the leading edge of an extra moist pocket of air (remnants of "Fred")...and this poses yet another complexity to the forecast. Most models are depicting this area to move into the Carolinas/Northeast Georgia, yet current water vapor loop and wind field analysis shows that this trend is not at all to what's actually occurring. In fact, it looks like the remnants have split..with the high level energy indeed moving into the Carolinas, while the lower level 'stuff' is moving dead west toward East Central Florida. I believe the dry slot off shore is subsidence ahead of this forward motion.

What this all means? The dry slot will either move over or remain just off shore and gradually dissipate during the day. The first hint of moisture from "Fred" will move in during the course of the late afternoon, with the bigger slug to arrive mid-afternoon Wednesday. For the most part all of this will mean little more than a slightly increasing chance of coastal rain showers on the east coast..while the West Coast's pattern remains unphased. It does appear that the bulk of shower activity on the West Coast will be from the immediate Tampa Bay area to just south of Ft Myers with most of it clinging around the Bay and south right along the coast. Inland areas away from both sides it appears will only receive remnant shower debris as a sea-breeze collision in the true sense does not appear to be a threat. However, given ample heating and destabilization lake-breeze /sea-breeze interactions are still possible especially in Lake County and around Lake Okeechobee. It currently appears that the moisture, as defragmented as it is, will arrive in 'waves' at any given time, so there is no specific time frame when one can predict it is most likely to rain. This will be the case from late this afternoon into mid-day Thursday.

Moisture levels will return to their lower levels along the east coast after mid-day Thursday and remain as such until an approaching cold front struggles into the Deep South and eventually Florida. But that's a new story for a new day in this weather log's entry.

Dorothy - The First Chaser

Photos courtesy of Jim Williams of
http://www.dryliner.org/

In recognition of the debut of "The Wizard Of Oz" in HD at a theater near
you!

Sunday In The Park

(remember what that is in the above photo?)

Today's weather along the East Central Florida Coastline this morning can easily be summed up as sunny and dry. Morning sounding came in dry at all levels except at the very lowest and a thin sliver in the mid-levels. The NAM model picked up on this trend, and as of this writing, was the only to have done so. Therefore, most of the day's forecast is hinged upon both that and latest water vapor / visible satellite imagery...speaking of which, water vapor does indeed show the area in a 'dry slot'...except maybe a few low Cumulus clouds this afternoon and some high cirrus with light-moderate onshore easterly winds this afternoon. Don't expect much anywhere in the area, including inland.

About the only place that looks like it could receive some rain today is along the immediate west and southwest Florida Coast from Tampa South. The upper air data from that area came in much more moist and the NAM picked up on that as well. It does show shower/storm activity in that area to commence after 2pm into the evening.

In fact, the NAM in the longer term continues to support this scenario for both Monday and Tuesday for the most part. Only exception being that the SE Florida Coast might see a slight increase in moisture late Monday with, I dare hesitate to say, "remnant" Fred other than giving whatever it is a name. Might as well starting naming every thunderstorm is about how relevant it is, but tropical discussion lovers would put a high nose up to such degradation of their adored creatures (I am a tropical weather forecasting lover myself, but let's face reality folks :-)

As always in such a flow pattern, with no outlying data resources available upstream in an easterly flow regime, changes to this pattern are most certainly possible within any given 12 hour time frame especially along the east coast.