"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Cooler All Weekend into At Least Mid-Next Week

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday Morning

TODAY-THURSDAY: Very little to say for the next two days other than 'similar to Tuesday'. Wind from the ENE-NE and brisk at times. Other than perhaps a few very brief spritzes' of drizzle and perhaps some small accumulations over South Florida today looks dry. There is a remote chance that more toward the morning hours to early evening of Thursday a quick shower might fall (better chance than today) but all in all temperatures remaining status quo with the coolest temperatures inland and toward the west coast away from the warming influences of the Atlantic and intracoastal waterways.

For example:  Even at this  pre sunrise hour  it is 65F at Punta Gorda (Wednesday morning) and the reporting station in Daytona is showing 66F. Such temperatures at the beaches of Brevard and South have yet to see such 'cool air' for many months.

FRIDAY MORNING: Cold front will be approaching the state and we lose the ENE-NE winds that have prevailed since Hurricane Matthew passed by.  This morning 'might' be nearly the coolest morning "BEFORE' the front even passes through for the outermost barrier island (namely A1A strip) due to NW surface winds prior to frontal passage, even since last May (!). 

 Inland temperatures will be similar to other mornings , but it is the 'immediate A1A strip' that could see morning lows into the 'mid 60Fs'  easily due to the NW winds rather than the on-shore component off 78F degree ocean temperatures which have produced the mild mornings of recent days at the beaches.

On the other hand, Friday afternoon will be warmer than what has been seen lately for the eastern most parts of the state in quite some time with highs in the mid-upper 80Fs with NW-WNW wind. Front will be on the way though in the overnight  and will pass through 'dry'.

FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY: The cold front per NAM and GFS extrapolation have come to rather close and consistent agreement that the frontal passage will occur across 'Dead Central" (per se) sometime between 11PM - 2AM time frame as evidenced by inspection of forecast Theta-E and Dewpoint Temperature graphics. The wind direction might also attain a more NNW -N component shortly after frontal passage which could put the breaks on any temperature falls  along A1A from Canaveral south toward West Palm Beach in particular.  

Regardless, much drier air will prevail for days to come. Additionally, large expansive high pressure will pass over the Deep South behind the front only to be re-enforced mid week by an even more expansive area of high pressure to expand up and down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard behind a secondary boundary which will pass by 'mainly' overhead and not be realized at the surface over Florida. 

Same old story that has been for the most part in place for a good week now as a result. NE-ENE wind once again as is typical of early-mid fall time frame.

 Difference being this time the overall air-mass quality will be too dry to support rainfall of any kind into at least mid week when this next boundary passes over head. 

The second 'front aloft' sometime  around Wednesday might add enough moisture for showers or at least increased cloud coverage through the remainder of the week toward next weekend. 

Regardless, cooler temperatures round the clock beginning Saturday, most notable west of I-95 (even US1) the first few mornings. The A1A strip from Southern Volusia and Southward might but see lows closer to between 68F -72F most mornings while inland lows, especially Saturday- Monday mornings could be in the mid - upper 50Fs. 

NOTE: All for the immediate A1A strip will depend upon what direction the wind attains overnight. Even a slight variation in wind direction before sunrise could make as much as a 7 degree temperature difference for morning lows for folks that are along A1A from Canaveral and south. Expect some mornings to be much cooler, for example, in Okeechobee than further north in locations like Cocoa Beach.

For inland areas, lows in the mid-upper 60Fs is nothing new already. Lows have already been in the upper 40Fs through the mid-upper 50Fs on several occasions unbeknownst to far-side East Coaster and South Floridians. (though far SW Florida such as the area around Punta Gorda has seen some mid-upper 60Fs). 

Again, it looks possible that such a temperature might be seen BEFORE the front goes through due to the NW winds prior to frontal passage for Brevard and Indian River County beaches ..the question is the wind direction AFTER the fronta passes, especially on Saturday morning. Beyond Saturday morning the east coast beaches south of the Cape will be seeing closer to the 70F mark with a marked drop toward the interior, especially near along Rte 27.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY: Overall, cooler air continues. The immediate beaches might be seeing nearly 'perpetual 70Fs' round the clock with lows close to the 70F hashtag with highs in the mid to eventually upper 70Fs. An hour or two of 80-82F is possible by Tuesday but more likely away from the coast.  

Again, other than Thursday  not much in rain chances  in the cards at least until mid week when the second front 'passes over head' (for now, will say that would be around Wednesday).

TROPICS: No signs other than what is evolving east of the Bahamas of a tropical threat through the remainder of October (so far). Seas might pick up though in the next few days as a result of low pressure formation to the east of the state so would anticipate continued high rip current threat.

Might note that based on Historical Data only 2 hurricanes have been recorded to hit Florida in November. Any activity per the records other than those two storms was either a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm.

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