"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Better "Thundery" Weather Pattern Today Through Saturday

ISOLATED Stronger Storms Possible Late with LAKE/Sea Breeze/Outflow Collisions
Mainly West of I95 to near and Across the Florida Turnpike Zones
TODAY: What a difference a day makes, although not unexpected. Guidance does not agree well on the regions of greatest rain chances today although a few items can be ascertained. Some drier air is moving into Southeast Florida so this area appears to have a lower rain chance other than toward parts of Palm Beach County and nearer the Lake. Further north, the Lake Shadow toward Ft Pierce will have an enhancing storm effect in certain spots but also be detrimental in the rain chance department for other areas not far off.

Steering for storms today instead of being from the east or southeast is from the Southwest today which brings to mind the other 'problem zone'..East Central in general where a not so unusual afternoon 'dry socket' will be enhanced as the afternoon progresses which seems to happen fairly often in a summertime SW Flow regime. That region could count out the coast of Central to South Brevard for heavier if any rainfall south toward Indian River County and north toward Cape Canaveral since those areas are upstream of that unfavorable area for either storms to form in or to die out as they enter that region.  

The other option out (though)is that the HRRR model seems to be bringing the east coast sea breeze too far inland based on its mock future-radar forecast; thus, we might be able to shift the orange zone east another 10-20 miles.  All in all, the best time for strongest activity will be after peak heating when the west coast sea breeze will have made progress east across the state to the far interior and when the lifted condensation levels start to fall. BUT, there too is an issue. 

The RAP model insists that those levels will not fall amply enough to generate significant if any thunder activity over South Central toward the coast until after 6:30-8-00pm tonight. Suspect parts of Brevard might end up seeing threatening skies that produce little rainfall when all is said and done, but can't say the same for just about anything  20 miles from any coast (inland) or areas closer toward I-4 and north.

The gist is, much better chances of thunderstorms today than there has been on a statewide basis for several days now, to nearly a week.    

REMNANTS OF CHANTAL: The advisories have ended although the latest GFS shows a re-emergence of a near Tropical Depression "Like" feature near the Bahamas in about 48 hours or less. Surprisingly, in the past 2 hours where the storm was 'last seen'..explosive development has erupted near SE Cuba (below)

In General, the GFS has shown moisture from "The Ghost of Chantal" to lift northward well east of Florida but not to be forgotten. If that model verifies from two previous runs, we might see that moisture slosh ashore from the east around Sunday afternoon into Monday morning but timing if so is completely hypothetical at this point.  

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: These two days will be on a case by case basis, but rain chances overall appear to be less problematic to forecast at least on Friday where many areas will have a better chance of showers and thunder.

SUNDAY- BEYOND: The theme of the summer so far re-emerges, that being High Pressure from the Atlantic again asserts its grizzly face back westward in retrograding which is what ended the thunderstorms for many areas several days ago, placing the state in deep easterly flow once again. 

But again as noted above, moisture from The Chantal Ghost could end up washing ashore  making for east coast early morning and overnight showers through early afternoon before marching toward the west coast late in the day. That pattern is expected to persist from Monday through at least Friday (if not much longer) of next week. Guidance is oscillating toward a more typical summertime pattern favoring the I-4 for thunderstorms as it attempted to do nearly a week ago until Chantal entered the picture going into the last 15 days of July.

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