"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 18, 2013

Cold Spell Abates as Temperates Flare

One PM afternoon visible satellite picture from the sky shows the anticipate lower mid level clouds beginning to work across the Peninsula as High Pressures moves East while another front approaches from the west 
TODAY: No surprises since last Friday's post. Winds have switched onshore as anticipated and low 'starting-to-cloud-up' intermittent stratocumulus clouds have begun to advect ashore in return easterly flow. 

Extensive cloud coverage not expected although they could thicken close toward sunset near the immediate beaches south of I-4 toward Ft. Pierce. Wind light from the ENE slowly veering to east then east-southeast to southeast after dark.  Highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs.  

Lows this morning varied from the lower 40Fs along A1A from the Cape to Miami and it was colder everywhere else in the state with a reading near 19F in the low interior area of JAX noted on their observations. Other freezing temperatures were noted elsewhere though, with lows into the mid to lower 30Fs as far south as between Punta Gorda and Venice on the west coast interior. 

TONIGHT: Warmer all areas, with overnight readings in the 40Fs range interior and west, in general, except east of US1 and  south of I-4, with warmest readings from Canaveral and south as wind become SSE and begin to increase. 50Fs closer to I-95 to US 1.

Temperatures might fall very little along A1A after 8 or 9pm and might even increase after 3AM into the lower 60Fs to mid 60Fs south of Vero Beach.

TUESDAY: Breeze from the SW and highs in the low-mid 70Fs with some upper 70Fs South Florida  always possible as the next front approaches. Any rain with that front will be north of I-4 at best.

Afternoon placement of surface features today, Monday
TUESDAY NIGHT -WEDNESDAY: The front should be whisking by Central sometime around 1AM Thursday morning with little effect other than to result in after noon highs a bit cooler than Tuesday but warmer than today's highs will be. High clouds could start to move in prior to frontal passage and be more abundant behind it though. This front is very shallow, barely penetrating upward vertically about 2000 ft with a quick easterly wind shift behind it. Thus, the cooler temperatures will be in place primarily due to potential high cloud coverage which is to be in place through Thursday or maybe into Friday as well. Air temperatures temperately comfort-able. 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like the warmest day now will be Saturday, with highs in the lowers 80Fs if not warmer. High Clouds to move out as the line of thinking this afternoon so far. From Saturday on through early next week is where a scenario is unfolding per the GFS which is not consistent with previous runs.

That being, the front never gets south of Central Florida by Sunday , but rather moves back north as a warm front. If that is so, we could see showers or thunder on Sunday afternoon Central to North Central and then again on Monday into Tuesday. The trend will be interesting to monitor though. 

In regard to late month severe, that potential has popped up in one out of six model runs (which are posted ever 6 hours) since the previous post, but the majority rule so far 'was' for another very cool spell..but given that would be going into the first week of March (although totally possible) we are beginning to enter a change in the seasons Florida  style, which makes extended outlooks even more unreliable than unreliable at best.

No comments: