"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Chance of Strong or 'Isolated Severe Wx Possible' Late Wednesday - 11pm

"Turbulent Weather Potential Could Be Looming Late Wednesday"
TODAY: Not much really to say regarding today with the short-term on track. A little more moisture, a few more clouds, and warmer temperatures with coolest readings at the immediate beaches with highs ranging from the lower 80Fs well inland south of I-4 down to the  mid 70Fs  range in general immediate beaches.  A developing warm front near and north of I-10 will be creating winter havoc over parts of Georgia once again as we are sure to be hearing about if not already on the news and other areas further north.

WEDNESDAY: A cool start to the day but warmer than the one this morning with increasing cloud cover especially north of I-4 to near it as the day wears on. As surmised, it appears the active weather later in the day and evening will be associated more with a pre-frontal surface trough/front as opposed to the actual cold front which will be bringing air conditioner PLUS on the colder side afternoon readings in the following days. But closer to home in the short term...

Weak surface low to form near Apalachicola to slide east and amass in due course to an organized low will track very close to and up the entire US East Coast centered just offshore  from Wednesday evening through Thursday and into early Friday playing potential cold weather drudgery mainly along and east of the I95. 

For Florida, it appears a good 90-110kt upper level jet swath will coincide with 50-70kt winds through the mid levels and 30-40kts at lower levels (except at the lower 3000 ft or so). Winds do not appear to be sheared directionally as much as could be, but the GFS is showing respectable vertical upward velocity compiled/associated with some vorticity max impulses within the flow much like eddies form as water flows along a rocky river. Guidance does show especially as of the latest model run an impulse coming in near to south of Sarasota to exit near the Space Coast with others closer to I-4 though this might only be the half of it. Colder air aloft associated with any tall convective cloud tops into those strong upper levels winds could result in severe category straight line winds if and only if true deep convection will be able to initiate. 

The issue there being a lack of low level convergence along the pre-frontal trough coupled with weak surface based instability. Regardless, those dis-qualifiers aside, wouldn't hurt to hoist the 'just in case banners' and select a local weather station broadcast particularly after 7pm if along the East Coast.

THURSDAY: The true front itself does not appear will clear all of Central Florida until after sunrise the next day with passage direct close to Dead Central near sunrise. Much drier and colder air to infiltrate behind that boundary with rapidly clearing skies and very breezy winds as the colder air attempts to mix with good surface heating from the sun. Breezy on Thursday with NW winds gusting to 25 mph or so up until mid afternoon but gradually waning toward sunset. Highs will occur close to sunrise then hold steady or drop a bit until near sunset then drop more significantly . 

FRIDAY: Much cooler all areas with lower 40Fs inland though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 30Fs Interior West Central as high pressure begins to move directly overhead, with the immediate beaches in the lower 50Fs. Cool on Friday with a high in the lower to mid 60Fs and light west wind. 

EXTENDED: Continued cool with a bit chilly sunrise temperatures, but progressively warmer toward Sunday with a return to normal temperatures that day and perhaps a notch above 'normal' in the beyond. Extended dry period of several several days could be anticipated at this conjecture as the story is being portrayed as of this morning by the Geriatric Fiction Story (GFS model).

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