"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 11, 2015

The July of Dry To Become More Stormy Into Next Week

Birds Appear to Split the Scene as Thunder Roars at Lone Cabbage Fish Camp Several Days Ago

TODAY: Gradually emerging and anticipated (for several days now) pattern shift in progress, though the more deliberate change is slow to manifest it will be likely noted today over parts of the state. High pressure that has been stretched from the Atlantic across North Florida accompanied with drier than normal air  to be pinched off at the mid-level across the state will gradually retrograde in part toward North Central to NW Texas in the next few days as some upper level 'trough-iness' gradually works down the Eastern Sea board. This appears to be a bottom up - top down process that will take some time and guidance is very sketchy as a result on where the best depth of atmospheric moisture will reside each day. 

For today, some strong to near or pulse severe storms are possible as noted in the graphic.

SUNDAY: Area of possible storms also of pulse strong to 'near severe ' are possible over an expanse further south and east with a delayed east coast sea breeze. Steering aloft will be from the north but will be interrupted and distorted by the outflow boundaries and spotty moisture both from a remnant cold front which emerged off the east coast days ago and some moisture working in from the far south. The NAM model has been insistent on larger coverage than the GFS which is a reversal from what is usually the case so question flags arise immediately on to what exactly is going on.

For now it looks like most of the beaches will remain dry though storms might be visible to the west from the coast and some cooling outflow might reach the beaches as well prior to night fall. Best chances of rains will be along to west of I-95 into Seminole, Volusia, Orange, and Osceola Counties and into North Florida and perhaps extending down into North parts of Okeechobee county and west though closer to the coast to just offshore north of Daytona Beach is possible.

NEXT WEEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Off shore morning winds (from the westerly direction) will have worked up to the mid levels delaying sea breezes as mornings warm. Temperatures aloft will be a bit warmer more than likely but pulse strong possible somewhere along the eastern half of the state late in the day or even into mid-evening are possible but wide-spread convection does not at this time appear likely. It will as a result be more on the isolated to widely scattered garden variety type storm situation except in isolated cases but the east coast beach locations will at least have a chance of seeing some drought relief that they are in right now.

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