"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Mainly Dry Today - "Summer Classics Begin Next Week"

Sunrise at Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Potential to be named Tropical System in Gulf centered at the surface is to the west and south of the large canopy of clouds as forecast models at time are in agreement for the low to eventually make a landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border in the next 48 hours. This of course might change, but will go with what we got. Regardless, closer to home as suspected might end up being the case if the system got more wrapped up, much of Florida would 'dry out' (that is, in the mid to upper levels).  

There is a moisture gradient from West to East Florida with the east half of the state drying out a bit which will continue for the rest of the day. Temperatures aloft are a bit warmer, especially at 700mb right in the middle of a dry layer so see no need to even mention rain outside of quick low topped shower almost anywhere due to lack of moisture and poor lapse rates.

 Lack of sea breeze convergence along the west coast might preclude the thunder chances there too (despite what the Tampa Forecast Discussion reads, will omit). The better chances for thunder is up along I-10, from around Gainesville out up through Tally to Pensa.

TOMORROW: Better chances of showers and/or thunder from mainly Central Polk or Osceola County and northward. Guidance hasn't come to terms with where the better chances of the rain might fall , for the NAM has it more toward the western side of the state but the GFS points to Central with a workings toward the east coast.

 Regardless, will take it while we can and go in favor of the GFS for showers/thunder possible from Polk/Osceola/Parts of Brevard/Volusia and north ( but mainly interior) because...

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: .... these days look much more on the drier side. Note that there couldn't be a shower, even thunder over the interior, but it's just not looking to ripe for the pickins so won't bother elaborating for now, besides that some things will change along the way in regard to moisture availability but for now it's looking a bit grim to go for much beyond  'isolated chance'.

MONDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK: Finally, say it is so, because for the first time since June began it looks like we will have a prolonged period of 'summer type' weather at last. 

Temperature wise that hasn't been too much an issue, it's been the overall synoptic (large scale pattern/patterns) we've been under the influence of that has been far from playing to the tune of  " sea-breeze convergence over the interior" exclusively type feel that one looks for during the summer across the peninsula.  

At this point, appears a frontal boundary will press south toward the Florida/GA Border come around Wednesday and wash out somewhere near there in the days to follow. Ample moisture , boundary collisions and weak steering toward the east coast and some days and more toward the west coast on other days.  The surface to mid level ridge axis appears will waver  between Lake Okeechobee (the 'Big Lake) region to as far north as South Georgia. 

 If it is to the north of Central Florida..flow favors the west coast for late day storms. 

If the ridge is from just north of the lake and South, flow favors the east coast. 

And if it is give or take within 50 miles of Central direct..neither coast is much favored but for the interior. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it all ...plays out.

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