"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 24, 2017

Potential For Near Record Warm Min or Max Temperatures Next Week

"Jake" Near the Jetty Last Year This Date
FOLLOW UP: Up to record rainfall totals the other day. The area with the overall highest totals with the last 'rain event' ended up being the Brevard County area. A sampling of some rainfall totals can be seen below , accompanied by the radar estimates.

Melbourne Radar : Rainfall Storm Precipitation Totals
CoCoRHaS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network)Input by Participants around the state and accompanying rainfall total range reported
from a graphic perspective

Totals reported in by local participants in the CoCoRHaS program

TODAY : Mostly Sunny and pleasant with temperatures running above seasonal 'norms'. Light east wind in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: A bit warmer all areas as wind becomes south to southwest ahead of the next 'cool front' . Highs Saturday in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Front is on the way for the midnight hours for Central Florida.

SUNDAY: Front to pass through Central Florida around midnight. Wind to shift to NW -N and eventually NNE-NE by daybreak or within a few hours after day break providing modification (rising dew point temperatures) rather quickly post- frontal passage (fropa). Lows interior Sunday morning in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs with warmest temperatures from the Cape South (near 58-60F Canaveral to lower 70Fs South Florida). Sunday will see a a bit breezier at first from the ENE to E but decreasing wind later in the day with highs generally in the mid 70Fs (warmer south of Lake "O").

The front is expected to make it as far as South Florida before losing all identity.

MONDAY: High pressure well to the north will quickly move off the east coast and easterly flow will shift to southeast to south-southeast. Highs in the interior in lower 80Fs and closer to  upper 70Fs to near 80F near the coastline. Rainfree.

TUESDAY: Even warmer all areas Tuesday morning. Might see near record warm minimums this day and / or on Wednesday with interior temperatures into the lower end of the mid 80Fs. Rain free.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture ahead of next front with potential for 'near record' highs , though rather sketchy on that one as of now.  Looks like there might be an onset of more cloud cover to preclude that from occurring due to lower - mid level moisture convergence as the west coast sea breeze works over toward the east coast, with even a chance of showers south of Brevard Closer to the east coast.  

THURSDAY: Next front to go through with a repeat performance of the one to come overnight Saturday into Sunday but with even less impact in the temperatures. 

From NEXT Friday on out there is showing nothing but mainly light easterly flow with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs for several days on end. What occurs after that is too far out to say. Would watch for the remnant boundary to be lifted back north after several days, however, which 'might' result in another 'rain event' of sorts..or maybe not. Because it is so far out in time the guidance shifts around on what will occur about 5 days later (or so) and now we are nearly two weeks out and beyond forecast-ability (with any assured accuracy).

IN SUMMARY: The chances of another ' sig cool down' is starting to wane with every passing week now. Days are getting longer and before we know it Daylight Savings time will be at hand (March 12) . Not that that means anything. Good one or two 'dayers' of a cool down can still occur well through March and into early April but they are, for the most part,  short lived.

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Tuesday, February 21, 2017

High Rain Chance Wednesday Could be in The Making

Sparkling Seas Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy all day with light wind. Generally no rain except the Western to Central Panhandle where some showers and thunder could occur. 

TONIGHT: Complex upper level pattern with  a low at an anomalously low latitude (Eastern Gulf) to cross across parts of South Florida going into Wednesday late in the day. At least one if not two surface reflections of this low pressure area could form around the state, possibly along Southwest Florida coast and another somewhere over the Gulf Stream waters of the east coast south of the Cape. Temperatures aloft are to be quite cold which be a red flag alert for severe weather;  however, overall lapse rates and associated instability at the surface and lack of wind shear looks to result in minimal impact for what could have been a rather 'strong storm event' if a few factors had aligned differently. 

WEDNESDAY: Given the position of the low however, and the jet stream more or less even to the south of most of the state, the overall consensus at this time point to  mainly a rain event (for some areas) with thunder possible 'aloft' (in cloud-cloud to in-cloud lightning mainly).  There might be some small hail briefly of 'below severe size' should a strong storm be able to form but for the most part it looks mainly like   high rain chances beginning along the west coast  spreading to east and working from south to north by late morning. Some showers might be able to evolve before or near day break along the east coast south of the Cape and press ashore as well as a prelude to the day's orchestration. The prevailing wind direction most of the day will be from the ESE-SE- to eventually south whereas upper level steering mainly will be from the southwest for any stronger activity.

THURSDAY: Hard to say exactly when rain chances will end other than it looks like the higher end rain chances will end sometime before midnight (if not much sooner) with lingering activity always possible into mid-day Thursday. This part of the forecast is far less certain. But be advised

The NAM model indicates potential rainfall totals up to between 2-4" in very localized areas especially just in from the east coast from  Brevard County and south, likely due to a slightly warm air advection pattern at low levels coming in off the Gulf Stream waters resulting in some surface based instability. Suspect this is overdone though and might be able to cut those numbers in half. We'll be able to see what comes about though as this is a rather 'tight' situation to evolve  and bears watching for possibly 'flood watch criteria (somewhere)' should   a  locally energized pattern set up. 

Such events are very difficult to foresee in advance as it is and given the very unusual circumstances forthcoming in regard to the overall synoptic upper level pattern that is to evolve coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty with where any specific necessary dynamics will end up being located (  including potential training affects or rain storms repeatedly over any given area) only makes the rainfall total part of the forecast all the more difficult to put a finger on

In regard to temperatures it will mainly be cooler due to rainfall and cloud cover, but no 'cold front' will be blasting through once this system passes. No, temperatures will be much more pleasant Thursday with a cold front still to approach  but more so Friday and Saturday.

FRIDAY: This day looks rain free and rather nice as the low pressure assembly line moves out further east over the Atlantic. A cold front on the approach however for Saturday Night.

SATURDAY: If you want a nicer weekend day in regard to warm air, this would be the day. Highs in the lower to possibly mid 80Fs (inland) as front approaches from the northwest. Some clouds around but no rain is foreseen.

SUNDAY: Front to pass down the state overnight Saturday night. Sunday to be a good 10F degrees cooler for the most part than the day before but dry with light wind. Slowly modifying temperatures going toward Tuesday of next week with no cold blasts yet foreseen even in the far off land of the distant future . Looks like we might be 'good' from 'cold air' at least into the first week of March if not longer (at least in terms of how cold it has got this year, this upcoming cool spell will but take is to around seasonal norms for about two days).

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Monday, February 6, 2017

Remote Chance of Strong Storm/Near Record Highs - Tuesday/Wednesday

A Particularly Peculiar Situation  (PPS) Over Cocoa Beach Pier Friday Morning
TODAY: Gradual air mass modification continues with light easterly winds and not much in clouds. All in all a nicer day than yesterday - less cool and more comfortable for the natives on the beach.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, wind was to become  more southeast Monday evening to south and eventually SSW into late morning on Tuesday. This outlook is still on track.  Appears the east coast sea breeze will make an attempt to develop and press inland, but if so will make little progress if any. Chance of low cloud cover and/or fog in the morning but will rapidly burn out into mid-morning in areas where it might be able to form.

The bigger issue is the potential for showers and/or even a thunderstorm (possibly strong) to occur mainly east of the Orlando longitude and closer toward I-95 and east somewhere from East-Central Volusia south toward Indian River County. For now will target in on Brevard County as reference region.
Convergence near the east coast coupled with good low level lapse rates (localized upward forcing) in the presence of rather cold air aloft could make for a storm akin to a 'stronger type-summer storm' siutation coupled with a little help from wind aloft. All in all, if the tell-tale signs being advertised by the NAM bear merit, could call for small hail and maybe winds gusts near 50mph. 

Overall, the situation might be one of those Port St John to far southern Volusia County situations for a stronger storm. On the other hand, the NAM has a preponderance to over-hype which has been implying this chance. The other option might be for a broader range of rain showers and larger area of potential general thunder. Either way...

WEDNESDAY: Less chance of rain this day with continued southwest wind. This is the day that for now appears might approach 'near record highs' for the date. I do not know what the record high is for the various locations of East Central, but if guidance implies an 83-84F, chances are it could be even warmer especially from near Vero Beach and north toward Titusville.

THURSDAY: The front that was thought to come through by early this day is now slated for after sunset. Thus, another warm day with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs wiith a west to WNW wind in the 10-15 mph range during mid-afternoon, especially south of I-4 . There is a chance of seeing some rain immediately either during or after frontal passage late Thursday toward evening along the east coast, otherwise mainly only some cloud cover.  The front will come down almost straight from the north to be followed by rapid turn to NE and eventually ENE wind; as such, the East Coast will be spared  much in the cold air department with return flow off the Atlantic.

FRIDAY: Lows in the upper 50Fs to near 60F Brevard and south but cooler inland and even cooler yet still further north. Either way, nothing unusual.

BEYOND: Moderating temperatures to near normal values as another front will slide by perhaps late weekend, but won't go into this one for now. It appears whatever the next front will do will have even less affect than the previous one late Thursday with an even less chance of rain.

IN SUMMARY: Beyond next weekend it appears Central/South Florida is 'out of the woods' in the Cold Air Department up through Mid - February. 

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Saturday, February 4, 2017

Near Normal To Above Normal Temperature Tuesday - Wednesday

Saturday Shrimping off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: A 'frontal boundary' side-winding down the state with little fanfare other than some increased clouds from Brevard County line and north which might work south, but mostly noted by wind direction change and perhaps a shower near the east coast mainly from near Melbourne Beach and North. Radar is showing some showers off shore heading toward the coast (below image) but skeptical that they'll make it west of the western edge of the Gulf Stream waters offhore to our east without collapsing over the cooler immediate coastal shelf waters. But who's to say. In any-case, could see a few more clouds as the day wears on  , and even if the rain showers themselves do not make it to the coast proper, still might experience an uptick in the wind from Northeast direction sometime after the 2-3:30pm time frame.  

SUNDAY: Though some cloud cover might persist early morning mainly north half of state the overall 'non-event' will be also non-effectual in regard to impact to activities and temperature . Sunday might be a bit cooler than today though overall, but close to normal. If there is to be any showers, they'd be gone by noon. Sunday won't be quite as warm as today at the beaches however. and a weak coastal trough will close slightly and move off north and east, bring northerly wind down it's back side on the way out..though mainly only for Sunday through mid-day Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind gradually to swing around to east then southeast Monday into Monday night and become more south to southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like these days will see highs in the lower 80Fs inland, and maybe some middle 80Fs here and there but remain dry.

THURSDAY: Next front to come through, and for now looks like it will pass through dry south of I4 but could easily change.

BEYOND: So far nothing too unusual  is showing up on the long range to beyond in regard to temperature 'EXTREMES"...not to say it couldn't quite 'cold' again in the next two weeks, but so far that does not appear will be the case for any more than about 36 hours. 

No severe weather in the next week. By around next Saturday is where some pretty big inconsistencies come into play in regard to the GFS vs. The Climate Model in how to handle an upper trough to build down the U.S. East Coast. The GFS almost tries to pinch off a low near Florida, while other models do not. Either way..  other than today (and the chance is very slim) and maybe around next Thursday or will be dry, normal temperatures ingeneral.. and relatively uneventful. Plenty of front rows seats available, but no show.

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