"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, November 30, 2015

Possible "Active" Weather Pattern Could Evolve Thursday - Tuesday

MONDAY:  "Flock of Seagulls"
November 30th, 2015 Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Warm and 'muggy' for November as the general 'warm streak' continues. Weather Service Offices across Central have noted the past Meteorological Fall Season (September - November) is in the Top Five for overall warmth this year , and this thread will continue into Wednesday. 

Though some ocean showers are possible any time the better rain chance begins Thursday as a frontal boundary cuts across Central and gets strung out across South Florida. This will be a very shallow boundary though with no true cold air behind it though temperatures will held off by increasing cloud cover after Wednesday.


 ***NOTE*** From this point on the 'blog' covers mostly a 'worst case' scenario type situation(s) as it stands this morning. Guidance is not in agreement to timing and location of future pressure centers and even within the GFS the character of upcoming days has varied vastly across the previous runs of the past two days.

Chance of rain late Wednesday Central and on Thursday after frontal associated rain that could occur late Wednesday. It is the post frontal scenario south of I-4 that will be the issue in regard to how far north the rains will occur  . So far, the GFS has been drawing a line from near Canaveral to Tampa and south, though at times even further south with the rain chances for Thursday and Friday with the model teasing the Dead Central line too often not to mention (and to South Florida especially).

FRIDAY: Continued partly cloudy to cloudy with easterly wind increasing as high pressure passes to the north of Florida and strengthens. How strong this high pressure center becomes will be the chief factor concerning Saturday and Sunday in regard to onshore east coast winds because if it strengthens as much as the last model run showed (and a few other runs as well a few days ago), then .........

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Chance of very windy conditions with rain showers. Wind gusts in rain showers if the GFS of 7AM this morning were to verify could be toward 45 mph? Huh?! Cold air aloft with strong pressure gradient..might even mean stronger winds than that near the east coast in rain storms..time will tell so if planning beach activities this weekend stay tuned to latest media sources.

The GFS showed winds as shown below at 2000 ft. beginning very early Saturday into Sunday accompanied by rain storms.

GFS 2000 Ft. Wind Forecast shows 30-40kts which could translate to
 higher ground level wind gusts in rain storms with cold air aloft
with gusts in the 32 - 45 mph range - purely speculation at this point

SUNDAY- MONDAY: Meanwhile, low pressure might well form ahead of the next approaching upper level trough approaching the Deep South States but still to the WNW of Florida. The GFS implies this upper level 500mb trough will take a negative tilt with a surface low pressure forming near the base over the north-central Gulf of Mexico in the presence of strong divergent jet stream winds aloft along the left exit region of the Southern Branch 300mb jet. If so, the low is then forecast to shift ENE to NE into Monday-Tuesday time frame across Florida as shown below.

If so, that could mean   there will be a decrease in surface winds on Monday and a break in any rain potential (but not entirely)...with another bout of fast moving (possibly severe) weather   in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. 

Additional model runs will be necessary for continuity in this very actively portrayed series of days as of this morning

Previous model runs have been hinting at a rather active patter anyway..but just exactly how these days  will evolve is surely going to vary in days to come with each model run - if , in fact, it will be active at all.

 -  Future posts will reflect any evolving or devolving issues - but will hold off for two days to watch the next 8 series of GFS model runs before running another blog update  -

FORECAST by the GFS model for Monday afternoon

**** NOTE: subject to change
in subsequent model runs ****

No comments: