"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Cloudy , Dank and Wet - Then Colder Yet Still Through Saturday

TODAY: Nicest day of the week in regard to sky, wind, and rain free conditions combined. Enjoy it while it lasts!  Not much to say about today as temperatures remain cool, even a bit below normal, but otherwise uneventful as a new year arrives.

TONIGHT - MONDAY: Cloud cover will be increasing across the north even more where it is already cloudy as we speak (see next image below)  but will begin to drop further south along a frontal boundary. This boundary is the beginning or onset of what will eventually usher forth a much colder 'air mass' come later in the week, as it is defining the leading edge of said colder air.

In the mean time, increasing cloud cover with a chance of showers light rain commences across parts of North Central by early Monday morning and slowly begins to drop south over-coming most of Central to South Central Florida later in the day. The result of of extensive cloud cover combined with the low sun angle this time of year will be to prevent temperatures from rising possibly out of the mid-upper 50Fs, especially where any rain is falling. Better chances of seeing the 60Fs and even some lower 70Fs is South Central and South Florida. 

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind increasing from the NNE - NE, gusting up toward 30 mph perhaps come late Tuesday night into Wednesday as broad and powerful high pressure works south from the northern states. The slight onshore component will keep overnight lows right near the east coast near normal but much colder air will already prevail across NW Florida.

 Low pressure will form off the Florida East Coast and that combined with what might be a bit of an inverted coastal trough running up the west side of The Gulf Stream just off shore to near the coast may well begin to manifest low level convergence resulting in much pesky cloudy cover and likely rainfall, mainly along to even only east of I-95, even US1.  Though we might see a break in the rains after Monday night into early Tuesday it does appear there will be a heavier return of the rains  to come sometime Tuesday and possibly all of Wednesday, mostly for the areas shown below. 

Temperatures for Central Florida mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs. Guidance is showing lower 60Fs, but suspect that if rain is falling, wherever that might be, temperatures could be substantially lower due to cold air aloft being dragged to the surface in and near rainfall. 

Coastal conditions will be most unplayful with gusting NNE - NE winds up toward 25-30mph, cloudy skies, and very cool temperatures accompanying any rainfall. Dank , wet, and windy as of now seems to sum of Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Large  and extensive area of low pressure that is form offshore will quickly lift off to the NNE offshore and up the U.S. east coast as the 'great plunge' of much colder air plows southeastward down the spine of the state over night Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Very rapid clearing in sky conditions from NW to SE down the state Wednesday aternoon into evening hours at least, but much colder by Thursday morning with lows across Central mainly the mid-upper 30Fs to near 40F (right at the beach south of the Cape). Freezing temperatures so far this morning anticipated possibly along to north of I-4 interior.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind will decrease somewhat but mornings continue quite 'cold' all things considered. Still any breeze will be felt, and no sign so far it will let up entirely.  This 'cold spell' appears will outdo anything we've seen the past two winters as it stands now in regard to 'duration'. 

 Possibly freezing temperatures interior with mid-upper 30Fs most areas (except far South Florida). Overall, this does not look like a 'big freeze' situation that would 'make the record books' as of now at least. We've seen worse. 

BEYOND: Looks like   continued breezy conditions , if so will be a blessing in disguise  . This would prevent much of a radiational cooling type situation, at least near the coast but again (which could lead to a damaging state wide freeze), it is too far out in time to know for certain if this will be the case.

The other 'good' side of the story is that as wind shifts to more of a NE-ENE component on Saturday afternoon a warm up will be most notable rather quickly. Not that it will immediately get 'warm' but things will all be relative by then. Low 60Fs will be 'warm by standard of the previous three days' especially by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: The GFS and the CFSV2 (climate model) indicate the chance of a much longer 'warmer period thereafter', with temperatures running at to above normal well into mid January (?).

Noting, the coldest period of the year historically for any 'sustained periods of time' is  typically between early January to the last week of January. The question is, will  this be the worst overall 'temperature wise' that winter will deal out for us this season or not? Time will tell. 

The plus side so far is that warmer weather is already being foreseen despite this upcoming first week of 2018.   But again, going out beyond even 7 days is entering unchartered territory.

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Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Above to 'Near Record Highs" Through Christmas Eve

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Very little change in the 'scheme of things'
as strong high pressure over the Bahamas - Florida - Western Gulf  at the surface in response to increased upper level heights perpetuates the current trend.

Though there is quite a bit of low clouds / fog in some areas this morning, and some higher clouds as well streaming over Central Florida early today, the fog will eventually break up and yield to mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be rather similar in the afternoon, especially close to the east coast where ocean temperatures are in the mid-60Fs (north) to the lower 70Fs (far south). Canaveral Jetty has been reading around68F for water temperatures recently. This means highs in the lower 80Fs inland and upper end of mid to upper 70Fs right at the beach accompanied by a light NE wind.

THURSDAY - SUNDAY:  Morning fog might continue to be an issue, at least for a few more days, typical of winter weather during the 'warmer' periods.

As a deep, upper level trough and related cold (in some case, extremely cold) air mass plunges across the Western and Central portions of the country with readings that will end up a good 10-20F degrees below 0F across the Dakotas, Wyoming, parts of Colorado, Minnesota, even possibly into Iowa, Florida will remain the 'hot' spot, especially later in the period as the front will struggle to reach the state. 

Wind will become more from a SW direction which could mean even the east coast will be seeing solid lower - mid 80Fs. It is on one (or more) of these days that we might see near record highs near the East Coast locations. Melbourne, Ft Pierce, Vero or Daytona might all stand a chance of reaching a new record.

 Regardless, no snow during this period over Florida on Christmas Eve.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Guidance diverges most notably for Christmas Day as to when the front eventually glides through Central to South Florida; so far they imply it would be late in the day rather than earlier, which could mean yet another warm day for certain regions south of I-4. Too soon to say however.

At this point, three Ensemble models: The GEFS, GEPS,and EPS vary as well but not too significantly in regard to exactly 'how low will it go' once the front does go through. 

So far they all agree that the 'least affected region' will be the east coast south of The Cape and around South Florida , mainly south of Lake Okeechobee. 

The 'most affected' would be the Panhandle region...north of I-4 and the Nature Coast region north of Tampa Bay.  For perspective, the east coast so far is forecast to see temperatures around 1-3F below 'normal', but much cooler for regions west and north.

All in all, little if any precipitation is foreseen as well. Cold fronts to be accompanied mainly by cloud cover is about it, and maybe some light to gentle sprinkles of rain at most is being implied.

The GFS operational model has been much more aggressive with the colder air, it appears now, but the ensembles   together do not show temperature falls nearly as drastic' as the operational run. 

Considering the   ensembles do not show all the much of a change, 'would anticipate at this point' a return to 'near to just a bit cooler' than normal temperatures for the east coast, mostly due to cooler afternoon highs. 

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Thursday, December 7, 2017

Watching Like a Hawk for 'Potential Severe' - Prolonged Cold Spell on Tap

TODAY: What a day of contrasts currently at hand !

 If one is along a line from North Brevard to Tampa southward, they'd never guess that not far away are completely overcast skies and temperatures as much as 25F degrees colder (as of 1pm). 

Temperatures last hour in the Panhandle Region are running  in the  upper 40Fs through the 50Fs  with mid 70Fs to lower 80Fs across South Central and South Florida.  A stationary front has come to a halt across Central Brevard stretching across the state to the north side of Tampa Bay and will remain in place more or less the rest of the day before slowly lifting back north overnight or into early Friday.

Frontal Boundary bisects the state this afternoon

TONIGHT: Not much change overnight as this boundary remains nearly stationary. A powerful upper level trough with Jet Stream winds plunging southward across the East Central U.S. and associated  'energy' with strong mid-upper level winds as well will approach the state late tomorrow and then cross the state mainly north of a line from Ft Pierce to Sarasota during the overnight resulting in increasing mid-level lift due to speed shear though there might also be just a bit of directional shear mainly north of that line.

Models vary significantly in the finer (and most important details) as to where the Risk of any strong to severe storms might occur, with the NAM model showing the potential well into Northern Parts of North Central Florida, but for now will not go there and stay further south . However....

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT- EARLY SATURDAY: The Storm Prediction Center in their latest outlook Is favoring a bit further north than what this post is showing for a 'risk area'. 

Either way, the Time of 'Greatest Potential Risk' for strong surface winds to Severe Strength if not even mini-swirl type tornadic activity appears most likely  along to south of I-4 after Dark on a developing Quasi-Linear Convective System Type Squall Line (if the 3KM NAM is to be believe). 

This is  still a  " 'yet to be seen'  -  'still in development' " type situation as far as forecasting is concerned. Timing and location could vary greatly yet still. 

Otherwise, the chance of seeing rain, some heavy with totals been 1/2" - 1.5"  (some places much less) across the entire state at varying times is high, beginning late Friday running through mid  morning - early afternoon Saturday (South Florida), though again, that could change. 

Rains will end rapidly from north to south, and might be over with across North Central between 9AM -1PM Saturday , though could be as much as 3 hours sooner (or later). Least to clear as would be expected, South Florida mid day Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Behind the front cold air advection commences with gusty NW winds over 25 mph at times. The Full Thrust of  'cold air' will not be yet realized, however, until yet another front is to approach sometime around late Tuesday. Regardless, highs on Saturday afternoon might not see 60F along and north of I4 with Sunday morning lows in the upper 30Fs interior to lower -mid 40Fs in many locations .  

SUNDAY: With the above said, either Sunday/Monday morning for some folks along the east coast might see the coldest morning experienced since the coldest morning all of last winter, coupled with wind chill readings. Wind however by Monday morning will have tapered off significantly.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: "Warming trend' if you can call it that. 

Though it will be 'warmer'  after another cold Monday morning through Tuesday the temperatures will still be below 'normal',  but after the previous two days might not feel so bad comparably speaking.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Yet another front if not two will progress down the state with the greater surge of colder air now being anticipated. The Canadian Model actually indicates a near State Wide Freeze Thursday/Friday mornings but the GFS doesn't even come close to such as that and not sold on the idea either.

Regardless, the potential remains that for  some folks along the East Coast South of I-4 to see colder weather later next week than was experienced nearly all of last winter with gusting winds to boot.

BEYOND: As would be expected we're now referring to a time frame of greater uncertainty from what is already quite a bit of previous uncertainty. 

General trend has been a warm up in the great beyond, that is, until the last GFS model came out.   Thus, as is always the case this far out in time, there is no way in knowing what is to come toward the Days Just before and on Christmas quite yet.

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Tuesday, December 5, 2017

"Winter's Chill Is Comin' To Town' - Saturday and Beyond

December 5  2017   Cocoa Beach , Florida  Morning
Will leave this post short for today  but to sound the 'alarm' for an upcoming cold spell  accompanied by gusty wind chill readings - preceded by a period of rain during the weekend.

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much change from the latest few days. A few clouds off and on, even a light ,  isolated shower perhaps. Temperatures running above average with lows near the beaches in the upper 60Fs to near 70F and afternoon highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs (interior).

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary to work south from North Florida into Central Florida to near I-4. Guidance is a bit shaky on exactly how far south it will get but appears it will reach South Central Florida by Thursday morning with a frontal passage across Central Direct close to day break. The boundary is extremely shallow; nonetheless, there will be wind shift and cooler air behind the boundary likely accompanied by increased cloud cover. 

 Slight chance of showers but the bigger story north of the boundary will be about a 8-10F temperature decrease for afternoon highs (Central/North). Sharp temperature gradient between the region north to south of boundary where highs will remain near 80F.

FRIDAY: Boundary continues to be located in the same general area as a mid-level 'impulse' rides along in the westerlies just above the deck to ride over the it  during the day and into the evening. So far, guidance advertises best rain chances North of I-4 during the day light hours. 

The Canadian Model advertised this to occur yesterday and the GFS has joined in to the prognosis. Both now showing that the better chance of larger rainfall totals perhaps even accompanied by elevated thunder appears will occur (as of now at least) across Central and South Central Florida after sunset Friday evening through the night into very early Saturday.

If the scenario paints out as shown , it will be rare bird to be getting thunder, for the temperatures during all of this 'rain' (assuming this occurs) will only be in the lower-mid 50Fs. GFS shows rainfall totals up to 1.50" (if not more) in the midst of all that. The impetus is very high bulk and speed shear through the mid-upper levels, over 60Kts at places accompanied by very cold air aloft.

Be thankful it won't be warm and unstable at the surface at the same time! Because if it were, this would be a 'big time' severe weather out-break set up; but alas, t'will be very very cool at the surface. If this were the Plains, maybe we'd be talking a hail chance, but not sure such a thing has ever happened like that in Florida before (cold weather, heavy rain, and 'hail'..that is).

SATURDAY- BEYOND: The front clears on Saturday followed by Gusty NW - NNW winds with highs perhaps only in the mid-upper 50Fs. Thus, the afternoon HIGHS will be nearly 10-15F degrees colder than our morning LOWS have been.  

SUNDAY MORNING looks also to be quite cool though it might warm into the lower-mid 60Fs in the afternoon, as wind decreases. Regardless, the worst is yet to come.

Beyond this time prepare for forecasts (such as on TV) to bounce around quite a bit, and to be hearing about the 'Polar Vortex' as it currently appears that area of low pressure is planning on setting camp up over the Northeastern Great Lakes region for quite some time. Chances are TV watchers are already hearing about it.

The end-result for Florida will be a 'difficult - to - time' succession of 'dry' frontal boundaries..boom boom boom. One after the other. 

I can count at least two more to follow during the week toward the following weekend. And be advised, 'IF" the current outlook stands, it gets colder before it gets warmer. 

Much cooler. Freezing so far is not foreseen for Central and South. but Far North Central Interior might see freezing temps come mid-late week after the second or third front pulls through, accompanied again by more gusty winds.

Temperatures along the immediate coast mid-late week 'might' be able to get into the mid 40Fs with gusty winds to-boot. But we'll see. There's time for guidance to shift around yet still, even significantly so.

In short, after early this coming Thursday things start to go down hill..then there is a good rain chance as it stands now at least sometime between mid-day Friday (North) through early Saturday morning.(Central/South Central)..and from there on will be time to  'Shift  intto Winter-Gear '.

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Sunday, November 19, 2017

Increasing Cloud Cover / Shower Risk Central Today - Risk of Strong Storms Tuesday

On This Day , Last Year
There is a Risk that there will be thunderstorms, some potentially strong or even severe (?) come Tuesday, then again more rain-thunder chances on Thanksgiving Day, meanwhile:

TODAY: A cold front currently located near Ormond Beach stretching WSW toward Cedar Key along the west coast is slowly working south early this afternoon. Last hour an area near the Villages was reporting 'heavy rain'. In general  most areas will not see all that much today in rainfall if any, but not everyone will remain completely dry.

Cloud cover associated with the cold front is clearly discernible in satellite animation working south, now already having entered parts of North Central Florida as it works into Central from noon through mid-afternoon.

The front itself is still a way back and won't like make it to "Central Direct ' until near sunset. Wind immediately behind the boundary shifts to northerly with much cooler air that won't   be realized from Central Direct and south until after sunset southward toward midnight (far South Central/South Florida).

OVERNIGHT-MONDAY: Wind overnight will become NNE-NE heading toward sunrise. Areas at  the 'immediate' coast south of I-4, mainly Brevard and South will escape the brunt of the coolest of air associated with the front, likely not falling below the lower 60Fs whereas inland temps will range in the lower to mid-50Fs with the coolest air near Lake County and North where 40Fs will be realized. 

MONDAY: Wind during the day veers to ENE and almost east by day's end. Daytime highs will be similar to the past several days, in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Pattern shift quickly takes hold as  a Strong Upper Level Jet dive-bombs from Canada south to East Texas and into the far Western Gulf then begins to curve toward the NE, poised toward Florida. In the mid-levels the WSW Flow Aloft will carry some mid-level 'impulses' of energy (vorticity) in the steadily increasing WSW Flow aloft while surface wind remains E-ESE. 

Bulk shear of up to 50Kts,  500mb temperatures running a cold -12- -14C and 700MB running around 0C,  and surface based instability of up to 1000 J2/K2 (mainly south of I4) combined could result in some thunderstorms and other areas of heavy rainfall south of I-10. So far the 'best risk' of stronger storms (if any) appears to be near the Tampa Bay area toward North Brevard southward to North of Lake Okeechobee. beginning late morning Tuesday with the risk running into late afternoon if not even mid-evening..with the better risk along the West Central Coast - though anyone could be game at various locations and varying times. 

Soundings being forecast though, indicate there could be extensive upper level cloud cover which would greatly mitigate the severe threat, though not to say there might be some 'embedded' activity in all that cloud cover that could bear watching.

WEDNESDAY: As of now, looks like a break in the action as the Jet stream continues it race toward Florida. Timing is of great issue at this point however, so nothing is certain in regard to if it will or will not rain much of anywhere this day. For now will hold peace and watch once again for a more active Thanksgiving Thursday.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain , rain showers, or even thunderstorms while bulk shear aloft continues and cold upper level temperatures at 500mb easily below -10C and even 700MB running quite cold as well. It's too soon to say if there will again be a risk of severe or strong storms on Thursday, though for now suspect the bigger 'risk' day might well be Tuesday. 

Not a complete wash out for everyone, but for now not expecting to see much sun this day if any. Cold front to eventually make way and through the state Thursday evening.

FRIDAY-BEYOND: The outcome overall , when all is said and done, will be a complete shift of recent days in the wind fields at the surface. Instead of easterly winds we will be experiencing some refreshing westerlies . 

Temperatures do not look to be anything but climatically normal for this time of year with lows in the 50Fs and highs in the 70Fs.

GREAT BEYOND: Not much of a change in the longer run as winds eventually swing around to easterly well out in time and eventually more southerly. Granted , this is still a long way off, but the GFS is indicating that the last day or two of November into the First Week of December could see above normal temperatures with highs in the 80Fs; however,  previous model runs have shown just the reversal of such fortune, with much colder temperatures.

Will be interesting to see the outcome. The Climate CFSV2 model has been showing 'above to  near normal temperatures other than for a few brief non-consequential ,   cool downs well into mid-December; 'maybe' even well above normal the past few runs going into December (for what it's worth). Though do note, some runs (like the GFS) have been showing just the opposite.

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Friday, November 10, 2017

Fall Phase II Begins Today - Winter Like Weather By Thanksgiving?

One Year Ago This Morning -  2016
TODAY: Weak frontal boundary characterized mainly by low and mid-level cloud cover and wind shift to northeast wind progressing southward will lay across South Central Florida near day break along a line near Central Brevard Country to south of Tampa Bay on the west coast. Just ahead to behind the boundary satellite imagery indicates what appears to be rather extensive cloud cover in the lower to mid-levels. There is no rain showing up along this boundary and none is anticipated but for perhaps later today for near St. Lucie - Palm Beach counties.

Wind behind the boundary is from the northeast gusting toward 20 mph and with cloud cover in the offing today, mainly for parts  of South Central Florida and northward, afternoon high temperatures will be inevitably cooler than the past few days other than for areas across South Florida where cloud cover will not be extensive and any affect from the dwindled boundary will be but hardly realized at all.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY: Some guidance indicates the chance of onshore moving rain-shower activity mainly for Indian River County northward toward Flagler County sometime after 2AM Saturday morning with the 4KM NAM model favoring Central - North Brevard to Volusia county initially.

What is to remain of the boundary either way will have lifted just a bit northward  but mainly above ground level. The surface boundary itself will have been fully absorbed into the synoptic scale high pressure area north of the state with little trace of its remains other than a moisture boundary.  No changes will be realized temperature/wind wise at the surface other than a bit of a veering more toward an ENE component. 

 Most guidance does indicate rain however, but exactly where is a tough call. Any rain that does fall would be 1/4" or less. All in all Saturday does not look like a wash-out anywhere, but cloud cover might continue to be a real bug-a-boo.

SUNDAY:  Sunday morning temperatures right near the coast will be closer to 70F (south of Daytona Beach) and cooler just a bit inland, but the bigger change and hence 'Fall Phase II" will be afternoon highs not reaching 80F (though some might see 80F from Vero and South) but more toward the middle-upper 70Fs depending on cloud cover. Chances for now favor upper 70Fs. 

Any rain-shower activity that might occur earlier on Saturday  will have worn thin and made history.

Otherwise, this day looks to be characterized by typically mid 'fall' like conditions of easterly to ENE wind and  little to no chance of rain -  cloud cover varying from scattered to perhaps a bit cloudy at times. 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Decreasing cloud cover but not much warmer with highs remaining in the 70Fs . Coolest locations in the morning inland from the immediate east coast (where closer to 70F will be realized). 

WEDNESDAY: Another back door front presses down the state either later Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will only serve to re-enforce the air mass already in place. 

Rain chance  with this boundary appears to be even lower than with the one currently at hand. The difference with this boundary is that   cooler morning lows might be realized  along the immediate coast (lower-mid 60Fs and 50Fs inland).  

Those temperatures look very close to being 'here to stay' for the most part, though the GFS might be over-dramatizing the situation a bit (which would be typical for that model). 

Overall it looks like 80Fs will be increasingly few and far between and hence the 'Fall Phase II" period.

BEYOND:  The current trend is for continued cooler with this second boundary's passage, but with a lighter (less breezy conditions) wind from more of a northerly component come mid-late week. 

 The GFS is flopping around quite a bit lately heading toward the week of Thanksgiving and in parallel is the Climate CFSV2 model showing a similar picture.

 That being, not one , but several cold air intrusions beginning any time from around Tuesday of the week  of Thanksgiving to the day after Thanksgiving, and in both cases , it just goes downhill from there. 

By cold is meant  widespread morning lows in the 40Fs if not some 30Fs accompanied by the expected gusty winds (and wind chill factor) that herald in  'goodbye to fall'.   

 How reliable is that portion of the outlook? Not necessarily very, but then again: 

The CFSV2 was showing what the blogger would consider the 'typical first cold blast of the winter season' to occur during the first week of December (two days ago). History has shown that in many years the period between the 4th - 8th of December might be seen as a 'classic time frame' for that first true 'wintry feeling' cold air mass to intrude into and across the state. Such abrupt changes take a bit of getting accustomed to as coats suddenly get hauled out of hibernation.

However, the last run as of last night suddenly shifted that to Tuesday of the week of Thanksgiving, though the GFS which was showing something similar suddenly backed off. These discrepancies indicate the increasing disparities and uncertainty in long  range forecast model skill. 

Both of them  attribute any said wintry blast'  to a very large area of low pressure, and re-enforcements to it,  forming over the Eastern Great lakes and into Northeast states  with nowhere for the low to go but sit in place and deepen as it extends well into the Deep South -- with Florida being on the receiving end of air flowing southward along the back side of 'said prognosed region of blocked low pressure'.

For now, such speculation could well change.  On the other hand, one way or another, days ahead for those who favor truly cooler to colder dry weather is showing up on the horizon, if not for now, only hypothetically.

November 23, 2016

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Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Fall is Here to Stay

Late October of 2015, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool spell of late will begin the vanishing act going into this afternoon through Wednesday. Morning temperatures ranging around the state from near 40F to as warm as 60F (warmest in the Keys) will quickly moderate through noon into the mid afternoon hours as wind becomes a light NNE to NE direction and dew-points rise from the lower 30Fs-40Fs never to sink back down again but for the west side of the state - panhandle regions mainly during the overnight hours to early morning Wednesday.

Highs today in the lower 70Fs for the most part state wide with a few mid-70Fs under clear skies. Temperatures falling west of I95 after dark but very slowly more along the immediate east coast near to east of US1 where easterlies passing across warm ocean waters will hold that descent at bay.

Per title of today's Post, it appears per long range guidance that dew points in the 70Fs, or at least any semblance of mid-70F dew-points and warmer are pretty much gone for good, thus welcoming in The Fall Season. that is here to stay.

 Dew-points in the summer run in the upper 70Fs to even near 80F but that is not happening anytime soon.  Temperature can't go any lower, however, than the dew-point temperature so it goes to follow that the higher the dew-point in the morning, the warmer the ambient outside temperate too will be whereas lower dewpoints over night also means cooler mornings all around, especially as the sun angle is getting lower and days shorter to boot.

WEDNESDAY: Warmest at  sunrise up and down the east coast along the A1A strip, even more so outer barrier islands to relish in the 'not so quite as cool' air, yet hardly 'warm '. Lows per GFS are showing lower 60Fs at beaches while the NAM model is spitting out closer to 70F. Will draw a compromise pointing toward the 67F -69F range in those locations, warming inland later in the day toward upper 70Fs but the coast a tad cooler. Either way, round the clock 70Fs are in the offing for the beaches come Thursday (or close to it).

THURSDAY: Not much change really as morning lows inland will begin to more fully realize the rising dew-points with warmer mornings more toward upper 50Fs and eventually lower 60Fs in some locations, with a better chance of seeing 70F at the beaches themselves. No chance of rain. That is to say, if per chance any depth in moisture is realized to manifest more than pancake stratocumulus clouds, chances are it wouldn't be enough to get the ground wet.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Highs reaching lower 80Fs, and lows in 60Fs except immediate beach-side in the lower 70Fs with increasing patches of various low level types of clouds from time to time.

A large, inverted trough will be forming well to the east of the state from the Bahamas or east of there up toward offshore Hatteras, and the net affect will be to keep winds just backed a bit to the ENE or occasionally NE. Eventually at some point overnight they might be able to back to NW briefly overnight near the coast which would result in a cooler morning or two. Otherwise, the afternoons will be running right on par with climatic norms of lower 80Fs with dew-points (and morning lows) in the lower to mid 60Fs.

FAR BEYOND: No cool spells of the caliber recently experienced over the past 8 days will be experienced again for quite some time, at least until mid-November as it looks now. Likewise, no 'rain events' or even measurable rain at all in some locations will  need to be addressed. Not to say heading toward late this week into the weekend some locations might not get a brief soak, but otherwise things appear to have settled down for a change as opposed to having a resting time yet being able to see something else coming along the horizon downstream. That is not the case anymore, for the first time in quite a while. 

Should anything change from the generalities expressed above  to be of impact within a week,  posts will likely resume from that time out.

P.S.   clocks   set back an hour come Saturday evening / early Sunday morning.  One more sign that we've reached the point of no return to what once was.

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Saturday, October 28, 2017

Risk of Heavy Rain / Isolated Strong Storms into Tonight - Very Breezy Sunday

October, 2015: Arcus and Attendant Shelf Descend from the North on Cape Canaveral
 TODAY: Long heralded coming rains in association with to be Tropical Depression / Storm Philippe and approaching cold front all to come together in a meet and greet, then dine and dash fashion over Florida / Straits later today into early Sunday morning.

Already, cloud cover is over-coming  South Florida while the gathering storm is still well to the south as can be seen below. A distinct closed circulation was a bit hard to see last I looked, regardless one can trace with the eye the attempt of it's coming together as a bona-fide cyclone even now. 


THIS AFTERNOON: Warm Central/North Central before cloud cover takes over announcing the coming changes. Rains with potential stronger activity will occur first toward Far SW Florida and around the Keys working to the east coast. Then work north with time. 

POINT OF NOTE AS SEEN IN THE "BLOG" FORECAST: The 'sketchy' area of most interest from my perspective is shown generally to be in the 'White Box'. This area is the more 'upon certain conditions area'   which might or might not occur zone. 

To the South it looks more certain for at least the chance of larger rainfall totals in some areas, especially along and south of a line from  Vero Beach toward Sarasota. The 'White Box zone" addresses a concern of the chance of better instability and upper level shear coming into play in that area after 9PM through 2AM in the morning (mostly) as the cold front and attendant very sharp upper level trough begin to enter the picture. Model consistency has been honing in on the region further south, but must add that in the past 2 days over 8 model runs of the GFS/NAM that area has spread out a bit and seemed to be being lifted north bit by bit. The point being is this:

The weather to impact the majority of the state will not be directly related to any tight circulation with might be linked to TBD Philippe. The mid level circulation appears will be stretched well to the Northeast of any surface circulation of " unknown at this time strength" as the system encounters upper level shear from the approaching trough

AS SUCH WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY: Suspect the risk of stronger activity, even the risk of larger rainfall totals up to maybe 4" could occur as far north as a line from Canaveral toward a region south of Clearwater beginning very late after dark, with light rain before that time. There is a risk of a 'quick change in the turn of events' as time goes on after the 8pm time frame, with the Caveat to such events that far north being indicated as being 'White Boxed".

Thus, the 'white box zone'. Again, that area is a 'conditional risk' though frankly almost all of what might occur today is rather conditioned upon several factors making it difficult to be more precise in where what will happen when  and to what degree. 

Therefore, this post is taking the broad-brush approach to encapsulate in general terms all potentialities.

As usual, all interests for pain or pleasure should consult the NWS information and/or local media viz. their radar interpretation musing for more information later today. South Central sometime beyond 3PM and more toward the Central/North Central after 7PM onward.

SUNDAY: Cold front to move through all of the state early in the day. Most rain will be over prior to sunrise all area but for perhaps along the east coast Vero and South. As skies begin to clear so too will the wind pick up from the NW. Chance we might see Lake Wind Advisories being hoisted for gusts about 32mph, once clouds clear and mixing of the lower mid-levels winds attempt to work to the surface. 

Some guidance is showing wind at only 5000 feet to be  near 35 kts  so there is always the risk we could see gusts above 30 mph , even 35 mph for a short -time from early afternoon-sunset. Highs generally in the lower 70Fs.

MONDAY: This morning might be even cooler than the previous cool spell, with wind mixed in. Generally looking at some upper 40Fs well inland/interior north, with more widespread lower to mid 50Fs elsewhere. The afternoon might also struggle to break 70F in some locations, but we'll see. Wind will have already decreased some at daybreak Monday, and will likely continue to progressively decrease through out the day. By sunset wind will be light and skies clear.

TUESDAY: Day breaks mainly clear and a bit warmer at the coast then the day before. If not, at least the wind factor will be absent and within two hours after sunrise the temperature should quickly rise toward the mid 70Fs, no issue. Tuesday looks to be a fine day. No tricks, all treats.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Wind becomes easterly and slowly increases as high pressure either to the north of the state or over the Atlantic (take your pic) have influence over Florida for quite some time to come. Temperatures to be in the normal range of lower (nterior) to upper 60Fs to near 70F (east coast) and highs in the lower to maybe even mid 80Fs going toward next weekend. 

By Thursday or Friday might see some isolated low topped inconsequential showers work ashore for a few days as well.

Latest Guidance indicates that we could be seeing normal to above temperatures to at least mid November, if not much longer than that . Not possible to know for certain.

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Thursday, October 26, 2017

"Blue and 72 will be the Rule", Rain & Storms Saturday

Great Blue Heron  - Early Morning Surf Fishing

CURRENTLY ( 5AM) : With rather  cool morning temperatures already at hand pre-sunrise, Crestview was at 39F last I saw, Ocala in the upper 40Fs along with many other locations along and north of the latitude across the interior and panhandle regions that are in the mid-upper 40Fs. Some 40Fs could still be realized into Lake County. Elsewhere, mainly 50Fs are being noted, with the warmest area out over the water-surrounded barrier islands of Brevard and south to near Hutchinson Island zones and south. All conditions under 'severe clear' with PWAT (precipitable water ) values down to 0.4" or even less.

Wind over the interior is rather light to even calm, but as expected would be the case, mixing due to surrounding warm waters is resulting in gusts over 15 mph out over the Barrier's with PAFB, Cocoa Beach, reporting a 61F with wind gusts to 17 mph.

THIS AFTERNOON: As high pressure at the surface moves across North Florida expect wind near the beaches to decrease once full heating is realized into mid-afternoon under  a clear sky with high temperatures similar to yesterday's.  "Blue and 72 will be the Rule" m though it might get a bit warmer than 72F today, with highs more toward 74-77F.

TONIGHT: As the rather weak high pressure area continues to progress east and north, wind will come to be a light NE-ENE near the beaches late afternoon / early evening. Though it will weaken and come to be near calm inland overnight, watching to see if this wind persists in a light fashion mainly east of US1 from Brevard County southward. 


Given the above stated, the chance that morning will dawn with a very large temperature gradient between the A1A Corridor up and down the east coast from The Cape south through the Keys, with lows closer to lower to mid 60Fs (considering PAFB is only at 61F this morning similar to the Stuart reporting station), with temperatures rapidly dropping progressively the further toward the interior one goes. There could be as much as a 9-14F degree temperature difference between those walking on the beach from someone for example in the Orlando suburbs or near Lake Okeechobee Friday morning. Clear sky continues though some scrappy - flat topped stratcu (stratocumulus clouds) might become evident along the near shore waters. Warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70Fs. Wind becoming more east to east-southeast late day.

Chance we might see some low topped rain showers move into the coast by early -mid afternoon from the Cape , south.


Low pressure currently located over the far Southwestern Caribbean will be lifting north to eventually NNE -NE across West Central Cuba into Saturday evening  and over-night as a cold front approaches the Florida Panhandle. Increasing wind from the SSE and rain chances thus from South to North , first for the keys and eventually toward South Brevard late day along with cloud cover and precipitable water values from the current 0.4" to up to over 2.00" South Florida by Saturday afternoon.  

Apart from the low of tropical nature, more than one guidance model indicates a secondary, weak low could form toward South Central or even Central Florida as the front takes in some of the positive vorticity  associated with  the more southern feature. 

Larger rainfall totals are more likely from a line running from near Vero Beach to Punta Gorda and south, though the secondary low could end up making for some larger totals as far north as Melbourne or even Cape Canaveral (mainly east of Orlando area) . This 'secondary area' is in question though. 

Official 'outlets' are advertising mainly the first area exclusively, and the latest Canadian and GFS models would agree. The outlier NAM (which tends to over-cast beyond 18 hours or less) implies up to 4" possible as far north as the Cape.  Any rainfall  of heavier nature, if they do fall north of Vero Beach and especially Sebastian inlet, will likely not be to occur  until a   9PM - 4AM Sunday morning window of opportunity.

Along with the rainfall, the risk of strong wind gusts in isolated, or embedded activity could occur across parts of South Central and South Florida as shown in the graphic below. The Storm Prediction Center is not nearly so generous with the 'marginal severe risk zone', with eyes mainly on the Keys and eastern Dade/ Broward county region. This could change however, as the actual time draws nigh and models come into better agreement.


Otherwise, it's all for naught as this southern system and cold front all are swept east with much drier and cooler air to follow . Very brisk NW wind appears to be on the plate for all day Sunday, with gusts in the 24-30mph range possibly with highs in the lower 70Fs or so.


 Cool morning in store with decreasing wind. Temperature similar to this morning, but perhaps just a bit warmer. 


Another cool morning with light wind and a moderating temperature trend going into the afternoon and beyond.


Resume to normal temperatures with highs in lower 80Fs and lows in the lower-mid 60Fs but much closer to 70F or warmer at the beaches , especially Thursday through the weekend. 

Chance of marine showers coming ashore almost any time by Thursday time frame and beyond.

EVEN BEYOND:  Going into the star-gazing part of the forecast -  

Granted, talking well out to the beyond reliable time frame, but so far  long-range implications are no more blasts from the north for quite some time to come. The long range climate type model shows no temperatures as cool as what we've seen (and will see come Monday) with any cooling whatever associated with more of the 'back-door cold front' type  for a good 10-14 days.

 If one were to believe the CFSV2 (which is not advised post 6 Days) it won't be this cool again all the way out to nearly Thanksgiving. Never trust a fortune teller.

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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Potentially Active Period Ahead Through Sunday

Winging It A Bit on The Forecast
TODAY       Not much change from previous post. Latest surface analysis based on the 10AM  reported surface observations places a rather 'broad' cold front's leading edge along a line from near Port St John extending  WSW (West Southwest) toward South Tampa Bay or a bit south of there. 

     The front is not expected to make significant further southward progress for much of the day, and might still be located in Southern Brevard  or Indian River County even at sunset. There is still ample moisture up through 10,000 feet to yield at least cloud cover behind the boundary for a good 50 miles or even some lower topped showers behind the boundary or on it, and perhaps some thunder further south, especially after 2-3PM (South Central Florida).   

      There was quite a bit of rain last night, though most missed out on "The Action" while asleep. Some rainfall totals across North Brevard from near Cape Canaveral, parts of Merritt Island, Port St John, Titusville were between 4-5.00" of rainfall. 

I know my street was completely underwater , the parking blocks in the street were as islands, the only sign that there was even a street there. But come sunrise, 'all better now'.

TONIGHT: Front will press on south and clear South Central Florida sometime after midnight. The driest of air, however, will still not have moved into all of Central Florida   Wednesday morning, yet will be on the way.

WEDNESDAY: Lows at the beaches south of the Cape in the lower-mid 60Fs but a bit cooler west of I-95, and even cooler further north. Skies will likely have cleared all of North Central by sunrise or will be about to.  Brisk NW will yield highs in the mid-70Fs during day time heating as incoming cooler air is mixed to the ground level.

WEDNESDAY EVENING - THURSDAY MORNING: Coolest morning by far since around last April.  Wind will have weakened substantially as the driest of air also will move down most of the peninsula after dark, with true 'drying' commencing for all of Central shortly after midnight. 

The drier the air, the lower the ambient  outside air temperature can go.  

Thursday mornings lows over Interior North Central in the upper 40Fs mainly , while in contrast from near the Cape southward we will be seeing temperatures in the 56-59F range, give or take plus/minus 2 degrees F , in general. Otherwise, continued clear skies with highs in the lower 70Fs and light wind. Near Chamber of Commerce type afternoon in store.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY : At the 'beaches' south of the Cape wind could progressively become more 'on shore' most notable a bit after sunrise Friday morning. Regardless, the ocean water is still warm and any onshore wind component prior to sunrise at the immediate beach will greatly make a difference to those in its proximity.

 Morning lows at beach might be only a bit cooler than the previous day time high temperature in some locations or be within 5F degrees of it; however, any fluctuation in any one location to westerly wind will make a big difference . Regardless, all areas to warm up rapidly between 9-11AM. No rain this day.

SATURDAY: Before the cool spell is even over we will be hearing more and more about the 'goings on' down in the far Southwest Caribbean.  Already, the NHC is outlining for a '50% chance of development' sometime after Thursday morning. The NAM model  portends like an automated fortune teller that barely has the cooler air moved out than that we will have a Named Storm to the south. The GFS and ECMWF are less generous. 

As it is at this time , there's a 50/50 chance of a named system as noted (whatever that means who can say), so why elaborate any further? 

 It can make a big difference. Ironically, if the system is named and gains enough strength, the less likely Florida will be impacted. If it remains rather strained  to deeper development there is a chance the associated moisture and energy will be rapidly absorbed northward along the leading edge of the next cold front to be arriving in the Sunday time frame. If the storm be named and then sustains it's strength, chances are it would be diverted to far off to the east of South Florida to have much impact, but for the Florida Straits and perhaps far SE Florida.

For now, will go with the 'weaker side' of guidance as a preventative measure in preparation for SATURDAY AFTERNOON - EARLY SUNDAY. If the system does not strengthen too much and is lifted northward, as the GFS and ECMWF imply..Saturday could be quite wet from South to North beginning early morning (South) into Central Florida by noon time or so. Continuing with rain, some heavy into Saturdaay night then mainly clearing out along a cold front first half of Sunday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Chance that again, it will be quite cool , even cooler than the forthcoming episode (but not by much). That is what the GFS is advertising, though will take those colder temperatures with a grain of pepper for now . It tends to overcast low temperatures in the long range (I've noticed as a general principle).

AFTER TUESDAY: Looks like we won't be seeing another cold front for quite some time once we clear early next week. 

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Monday, October 23, 2017

First Cold Front of 2017-2018 Slated for Tomorrow Afternoon

October 16, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Not too much change in the short - term (today) other than that the risk of actual 'thunder' (been a while) is a bit higher than has been previously indicated. The chance , however, is conditional due to how long  a rather "cirious" looking  cirro-stratus deck of high clouds will remain fixed aloft, mainly across North Central into parts of Central. 

The best potential for storms today at the lower levels of the atmosphere (parameters wise) just so happens to be where those clouds are now co-located, which negate any positive affects for storms. 

As a result, the blog will simply indicate the entire region that has the best-overall chance of seeing thunder today ( not necessarily exclusively). The Area over far Southern Interior Florida also appears to be in the game but all areas are in question. If thunder can get going, even rain showers (apart from some that have already manifested along the east coast near Melbourne and south) it would most likely be after 3:00pm or so through 7-8pm.

TUESDAY: Cold front still on the way for mid-week, though it will be a bit slower to make the sweep down the peninsula. All guidance is in agreement that a 2PM FROPA (frontal passage) across Central-Direct will have to be put on hold for early evening. As a result, day time heating, and the questionable amount of cloud cover that might or might not be present   tomorrow will again make for a conditional chance of thunder from Brevard County southward toward Broward County.  Chances are we'll at least see some showers along the cold front however, as that boundary will act as a low level convergence source, and hence , as a lifting mechanism. 

What that also means though is one more day of 'warmth' . The last vestiges , or apparently so, of 2017 Warmth are getting closer and closer to exit the scene until 2018, at least, as a full time resident. Given that days are getting shorter due to lower sun-angle, eventually we will be resigned to realize that the new normal for highs will be in the lower 80Fs and eventually even cooler with time.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front slated to work across Central Florida and be located still along a line from near  Central Brevard toward Southern Sarasota Area around 8PM Tuesday evening, if not a bit further north than that. 

It will have to be waiting for some reinforcements to arrive to make further southward progress, but never fear, they're on the way for the front to make to far South Florida by day break.

What this all means is that morning lows on Wednesday won't be quite as cool as previously anticipated but not by a significant difference. Dry air advection ahead of the parent high pressure area building east across the Deep South will filter in continual fluxes of drier air all day Wednesday and most notably over night Wednesday evening.

 Low Wednesday morning along Coastal Brevard and South might be in the 63-65F degree range with a NW wind , but not a 'strong and gusty' kind of wind. Day time highs in the lower-mid-70Fs , but due to the delayed FROPA this also means that the strongest of cold air advection will be at play during peak heating, which means areas just to the north and/or interior regions North Central and North 'might' struggle to attain 70F  --bearing in mind, what this all means most  for the immediate beaches is that the afternoon High Temperature on Wednesday will be cooler and drier than any of the morning low temperatures  that region has realized since spring.

THURSDAY: Again, driest of air will pave the course to allow  over night lows to 'plummet' into the mid-50Fs many areas interior, even lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs (dare we say it?) over North Central along or near Route 27 (Lake County for example), though upper 40Fs might be a bit much. Regardless, that is the region that will see the coolest temperatures , with the 'less frigid' temperatures coastal Brevard , southward. Lows in the latter region in the upper 50Fs on the outer Barriers, with lower-mid 50Fs closer to US1 and west. Lighter wind this day under pleasant skies. Thursday, after the morning chill, looks like it could be a rather stellar day to go outside and play.

FRIDAY: Fun -n- games over,  mainly east coast as overnight winds attain an onshore component. Morning lows beaches in the mid-upper 60Fs and will rise to to Thursday''s high temperature range with two hours after sunrise more than likely Moistening of the atmosphere will only be slow, but progressively increase a bit heading to Saturday. No rain.

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Wouldn't be surprise if we have a Tropical Depression on hour hands in the far SW Caribbean 'somewhere' before we see the weekend begin.  Most guidance purports that something of that nature will lift north across Cuba , but likely be pulled just off to the east of the peninsula as the next cold front approaches, with potential rain affecting parts of South Central to all of South Florida  (if  any of this occurs ) with a closest pass to the state. Granted, it's just too soon to say, as the first assumption is that said circulation will manifest, and secondly that it will lift north as well, at least in the mid-term.

Regardless, at this rate nothing to start rationing food and stocking up on batteries over though this weekend at any forecast-rate is up for grabs depending upon the area of interest that the Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of development beyond 48 hours from today (Monday).

More cool weather is on the way it appears now but nothing drastic heading toward next week. 

HALLOWEEN: Given all guidance being shown so far, Halloween looks like it will be dry with seasonable temperatures, nothing frighteningly chilly or spooky wet.

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