"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Greater Storm Coverage Today - Very Warm Friday/Saturday Even at the Coast - Then...

Vertical Standing Shelf Cloud Moves In -July 26, 2014 Cape Canaveral
 TODAY: Day 2 of same theme, only with a bit more moisture  with slightly better wind fields to work with. Mid-level area of low pressure slowly taking shape over the Deep South as upper level trough moves east through the Great Lakes region to eventually sync going into Sunday-Tuesday time frame. But for today..

More warm temperatures before rains develop with high heat index readings. Best chance for convergence of sea breeze boundaries appears will run a line from JAX along the St. John's River Valley basin through Central to Western Volusia , down toward Eastern portion of Osceola County and take a curve toward the WSW-SW to near the Fort Myers area.

Largest rainfall totals appears will occur from near SR 50 and north. Though there could be an isolated stronger storm the bigger news will be lightning and larger rainfall totals near or west of I95 suspected somewhere near Seminole County, perhaps eastern Orange into parts of Osceola County. Best opportunity for storms to clear the coast is from Volusia County and north though some activity in a weakened state might be able to drift offshore from near or north of Melbourne Beach.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  Next pattern begins for two days. Pressure gradient to increase from the SW direction. The east coast sea breeze might be held off until mid afternoon north of Vero Beach (or so) which , if so, could take temperatures even at the beaches from say Cocoa Beach and north into the mid-90Fs. The sea breeze might not manifest at all for Volusia County and north.

Historically, a 'good SW flow' at the surface in the absence of cloud cover tends to pile up the heat along the far eastern side of the state north of Lake Okeechobee. Gander  that from Ft Pierce and north might see some solid mid 90Fs..whereas further south the better chance of showers/storms (St Lucie County and south).

 There will be little if any storms around Central though never say never, it just looks slim.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Pattern change. Low pressure over much of the southeast places Florida  clearly in cyclonic flow aloft and at the surface. Sunday is now coming into the picture as an active day along with Monday. 

The Frontal Boundary associated with the  developing synoptic scale scene is expected to make it as far south as potentially I-4; even a 'cold front' as far as July standards are concerned. 

(Morning temperatures further north over the region along and east of the Mississippi are forecast to fall even into the lower-mid 50Fs in some areas; meaning some areas that were hit hard by heat not too long ago such as Tennessee will now experience a flip-side)

On this Date in 2014, Off Cape Canaveral
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will likely follow along similar themes but exactly what that will be is hard to say. Temperatures beginning Sunday or at least by Monday will not be nearly as warm due to increasing cloud cover, as rain chances will also have increased. Working into Tuesday the flow increasingly becomes more WSW - West with much lower chance of sea breezes (probably none). How cloudy it will actually be though could well determine afternoon rain chances and locations. Thunder will still be possible. The GFS implies Tuesday is more or less a 'wash out' for some areas or perhaps just a  'cloud out'...

BEYOND: Pattern continues to remain 'unsettled' (to put it lightly) all through to Saturday of NEXT WEEKEND after this upcoming one. 

No comments:

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

New Pattern to Play Out Today - Thursday

Storm Approaching Canaveral Cruise Terminals on Sunday Around Noon-Time
TODAY-THURSDAY: Twist to the rather uneventful pattern of the last two days (Monday/Tuesday). Not that there has not been some showers, and even a 'good rain' the other day down in Okeechobee County, but by-n-large things have been on the 'quiet but hot' side of the July coin.  Looks like it landed on tails the past couple of days but it will all come to a head coming late week on the flip side.

Regardless, minor detail changes at hand but nothing that will go unnoticed for those who get a shot at rain today that haven't even seen a hint of it during the past two days. Will not rehash the warm and hot message that most are already aware of if only to have walked outside after 1PM and away from the sea breeze, as heat indices sore to even above 108F in a few isolated cases, but mostly around the 102-105F region (other than right on the beaches).

Moisture most available across South Florida will advect during the day to near the SR 528 dividing line by later afternoon. Sufficient moisture in place already for some cumulus clouds but nothing more that far north (so far), whereas a few showers have already managed to develop over South Florida.

Though a storm could 'conceivably' become strong, the signals aren't good enough at the moment to make that call, and nothing per guidance implies that would be the case if in fact given the atmospheric conditions it is even possible.

 Most activity will be in the 'shower' category for the most part , apart from boundary collisions near Lake Okeechobee and late day where the 'Hatfields meet the McCoys" (West and East Coast Sea Breeze Collision") where some real 'sparks might fly and shots will be fired'. 

 Best chance of this collision appears now to be in Central Osceola County  then south and west toward the NW-and West side of Lake Okeechobee.   

One model shows some stronger activity closer toward the West coast even well South of Tampa but am hesitant to include, namely because upper level winds at 'storm anvil height' are well  out of the Northeast to ENE and blowing toward the WSW..anvil tops spreading across the western portions of the state if other activity forms more toward the interior might well put the lid on activity further west.

THURSDAY: A similar scenario will take shape, day two of the Pattern with a variation. This day appears to have better coverage and greater storm strength potential. Some activity on this day might be able to work off the east coast from Brevard County and North as SW Flow aloft begins to increase.

As it is now, a voriticity field aloft is resting over Southern Georria toward North Florida. This area appears to be the harpbinger of what is to develop in the coming days as an upper level trough well up by the Great Lakes moves east and begins to synch with the mid-level  'troughiness' over the Deep South just now in progress.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: These two days might be the great 'in-between' days of lower activity again as drier air advects across the state.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days, but mostly so on Monday, appear to be the next pattern to emerge   as a near Full Latitudinal Trough (FLT) down the east coast with a mid level Center over the Deep South will increase westerly flow surface and aloft. By Tuesday and/or Wednesday we might not see an east coast sea breeze at all. Despite that there will be increased moisture ample for storms, that which is being most impressed from my readings of the models at this stage is for early morning activity mostly over the Panhandle and along the Gulf Coast...with increased could cover from the west spreading across much of the state. After Monday it might be hard to recover from the previous day's activity, and so it goes on into the following days, each day successively less active than the day before due to cloud cover even though steering would favor storms moving completely off the east coast of the state.  

That is just a first 'best guess' as to what might begin to evolve going into later next week; for now though, perhaps on Sunday we will see stages of the new pattern at play to evolve to Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Long and short of it is that next week might not be the greatest days for going to the beaches other than earlier in the day. Monday appears to be the biggest 'overall  Thunder Day'.


No comments:

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Storms/Shower Risk Today Up and Down the Peninsula - Even the Beaches (?)

Over the Banana River on this date, 2014
TODAY: Same general synoptic situation is at play but with a slight change in the theme as the old one likely played itself out yesterday with the very early onset across SW Florida associated with colder air aloft - that as a 'renegade' upper low had retrograded from the Carolina's the other day toward North Florida and continues west and out of the picture.

New scene today as temps aloft are just a bit warmer  with the low having moved further from the state -   upper level triggers (vorticity) associated with it are likely more removed from the immediate area (as per model guidance).

Otherwise, Cape sounding showed a convective temperature there of 90F which is up a bit from yesterday, and warmer by about 2 degrees at both the 700mb and 500mb levels. Steering is from the southwest but not so strong as to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming.  

There  is activity up and down the west coast however encroaching on to the beaches in some locations. Chances are if these storms can collapse and send outflows eastward coincident with the west coast sea breeze, that boundary could make good headway toward the east side of the state while the east coast sea breeze makes much slower progress. 

There is some 'cloud cover' across a portion of southeast Florida which 'might' put a crimp in the storm style down there (if any is to be found at all, 'see below') apart from a merger of the Lake Okeechobee/Sea breeze. That area looks like it might escape the storms today, unless the clouds thin out a bit (hard to say for certain).

Otherwise, apart from other questionable potentials ...the 'better bet' (per the blogger only) for mid-late day storms appears to be along I-10 then south along and west of I95 as depicted below.. also activity could 'pop' as the east coast sea breeze forms but suspect it would be rather isolated, at least compared to yesterday's standards.

The region over South Florida (south of Lake Okeechobee) will likely need to wait for the sea breeze collisions later in the day as well; the Miami sounding had a precipitable water value of around 1.72"   (but the moisture was more evenly distributed up and down the column) - and as such, it appears for now a bit iffy for storms down there; on the other-hand, it is thought this area might moisten up a bit later in the day with the peak of activity closer toward the west side.

Overall, suspect the 'better concentration' of storms with at a minimum 'anvil debris rains' at the immediate coast even will be portions of Central (East Central to eastern portions of North Central)..then along a southwest line from near Yeehaw Junction toward Ft Myers.

SUNDAY: Expect less concentration of storm coverage at this time, though upper level winds do not change, moisture availability might. The GFS showed a similar set up as today with a few variations which would be par for the course of things running along in 2-3 day 'cycles' or themes' as the larger scale synoptic scale situation across the country undergoes some subtle changes.

BEYOND: Little variation in the 'winds at the surface and aloft' forecast, with more sensible (observable) changes occurring in regard to where moisture will be ample enough. Guidance is providing varying forecasts regarding this particular variable , making an extended outlook sketchy at best.  However, there is consensus that some definite 'rather dry slots' will impede or pollute parts of Central Florida at times in the upcoming week as well as South Florida; North Florida seems to be the location where a steady increase of moisture is expected into mid and late week. 

Expect there will be days that shower/storm coverage will be significantly hampered in particular regions/areas of the state more so than others, but exactly where cannot be pre-determined at this time. The GFS shows little change, overall (as just described) into the end of the month (for the time being at least)

July 22, 2014 over the Banana River as Viewed from Cape Canaveral

No comments:

Friday, July 21, 2017

Larger Rainfall Totals - Heavy Thunderstorms Again - With Some Near Coast

Storm Clouds Loom Over Hickory Tree Road in Osceola County on Thursday.
Vivid Lightning was dead ahead at the time of image
St Cloud in Northern Osceola reported over 2.5" of rain yesterday
TODAY: Looks like a variation of yesterday's theme. KSC sounding came in at around -7.5C at 500mb and a bit cooler at 700Mb at around 7C (from yesterday). With no capping in place and little in dry air up from the surface to 500mb column would except showers to initiate easily once convective triggers are reached by noon time or so (the KSC sounding shows the convective temperature to be 89F for that area), outside of earlier smaller showers that could begin sooner.  There is already plenty of activity across SW Florida progressing slowly eastward.

Low -mid level ridge axis remains suppressed to far South Florida up toward Southern Shore of Okeechobee County today and tomorrow.

As such, steering in the mid-levels is from the WSW at about 10kts but suspect once sea breezes kick in that most storm motion will be dictated by propagation along the sea breezes as they progress inland and then along outflow boundaries / lake breeze mergers until the brew is mixed until there is one big convective mess 'somewhere' over the interior. The slightly better winds aloft today will only lead to further unpredictable storm motions across into areas that haven't already been worked over by earlier storms. The blue area in the image below is a 'guess' of where that might be.  

Biggest hazard again today will be driving in heavy rainfall and the ever present cloud to ground lightning strikes that can occur prior to heavier rainfall onset under billowing cloud tops or even outside of the storms themselves in 'clear air'.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: For now will clump these two days together as the Song Remains the Same more or less. Only difference might be for a slight decrease in coverage, namely on Sunday, and that steering toward the immediate east coast north of Palm Beach County might increase just a bit; either that or the east coast sea breeze might get pegged closer to the coast if winds at the 925-850mb levels increase more toward 15kts which is being implied as a possibility on both the morning NAM and GFS model runs. Of the two days, Saturday looks to be the day for a Strong Storm potential once again, with decreasing coverage on Sunday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Main shift from previous thinking is that the ridge axis' remains across South Central toward South Florida for the duration into next week, even into NEXT weekend. That is to say, somewhere across South Central Florida. The pattern seems to favor more and more the east side of the state for mid-late day storms, though there is some drier air that is going to be thrown into the mix. The GFS runs a 'dry slot' across mainly Central or South Central for several days. Inevitably if this is the case, it will mean many areas will remain rain free, but on the other hand some areas along the moisture gradients across South Central and or North Central might see some vigorous updrafts evolve late in the day. 

FAR BEYOND: Just for now and then we can see how things change in the future, the GFS implies this 'drier' period for some areas will remain relatively brief, (maybe 2-4 days) as yet more moisture begins to fill in and steering remains from the WSW-SW. Granted that is too far out in time; just to throw the bait out for now..then we can see how well the models continue to bite on that prospect  in future runs.

TROPICS: Nothing in the tropical realms of concern at this time into the first week of August (at least). Even if something were to form in the Atlantic, given the upcoming pattern :  location of the ridge axis, and winds would not be welcome for a visit to the "Sunshine" State.

Heavy rainfall along SR528 near I95 on Thursday

No comments:

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Active July Pattern , Monday-Thursday

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: No changes from previous post of the other day. Pattern change from days of late slowly in progress today most notably will begin for the wee hours Monday morning as surface winds along the east coast (at least north of Palm Beach County) become light offshore (westerly) before day break as opposed to easterly or near calm . Mid-level winds also to shift from light east to west to more  from a southwest component as the mid-level ridge axis drops from Central Florida late today to near Lake Okeechobee  by tomorrow morning (though quite light).

Otherwise, for today moisture to be ample enough though some dry - pockets (like today) might well remain. 

Sea breeze converge appears will be maximized mainly North of "Dead Central" across the Interior from the Suwanee River Basin south into parts of eastern Lake County/ Western Volusia then south-southwestward  toward Central and  eastern Polk county (?) , but over all coverage appears will restricted inland except north of Ormond Beach. Better chances of seeing activity nearer the coast from St Augustine  northward.

Increased moisture was anticipated in previous post for South Florida which was the case, and as a result rain showers were set off  earlier day  ; however, at this stage it appears said activity set off outflow boundaries that 'might' have scoured out large portions off inland South Florida unless those areas can 'recover their loses'    for late day storms (which is always possible).

Not all areas in 'Orange" will see thunder or even rain today; most will be more isolated
except north of I-4 over the interior toward I-10

MONDAY: The GFS and now the NAM as well as other models have shown a curious 'thing' to occur tomorrow over the peninsula taking the form of what appears would be something like a mesoscale, perhaps heat induced surface low pressure circulation centered either near interior North Central or South Central Florida.  All in all, it looks like a thermal trough up and down the spine of the state might evolve, which in some cases results in long, prolonged rainfall eventually by the end of the day with quite a bit of cloud cover. Time will tell. Often in such cases , if this does occur, we might see more storm coverage than anticipated. 

Otherwise, it appears some storm might even come to be on the 'stronger side' from near Canaveral and North from near Orlando and east toward Off shore up toward Daytona Beach and then more toward I-95 for  North Brevard late in the day. Some activity might be able to drift offshore even from Brevard and north (eventually), bit in the form of merely light rain or thunder is too soon to say.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far these days appear will carry on the same themes more or less. Light west to east steering, ample moisture, and sea breeze collisions point to a rather 'on the wetter side' for July pattern, but not unusual.  Biggest hazard will be lightning and expect there will be quite a bit of it. Some storms might be able to press offshore the east coast or form near it even on some days with the strongest activity mostly limited to 5 miles of more from the coast except north of I-4; however, more details are needed for refinement as these days come . 

Expect we might be hearing that on either one or both of these days that 'some storms might be strong' (due to stronger surface wind gusts near the heavier storms  later in the day). All storms will bear the hazard of lightning, however, and seeing as how some of this activity could be close to the coast the threat of cloud to ground strikes near the beaches prior to the beginning of rainfall would present a precarious situation if that is the case.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Storm coverage might begin to decrease overall with most activity limited to 'away from the immediate coast' ..but again too far out in time to say.  The GFS shows most activity restricted to interior Central Florida during the late day sea breeze collisions with South Florida drying out a bit.

Over all, the next week looks like it could carry on perhaps three different summer themes in groups of 2-3 days at a time as the varying ridge axis' at different levels of the atmosphere toggle for position. Outside of that, what occurs each day might be slightly dictated by remaining boundaries that lie dormant from the previous day's activity.

No comments:

Friday, July 14, 2017

Pattern Change Begins Sunday Night - But Until Then...

Sunrise Friday Morning
TODAY: Another variation of the same theme since the post-tropical wave passage of Wednesday. Easterly flow will pile up moisture along the west coast, especially near to even west of I75 in the mid-late afternoon where the strongest thunderstorms will occur. Elsewhere sufficient moisture was in place for some showers earlier today, even some thunder from South Brevard on southward, but overall the air mass especially North Brevard northward is too dry in the mid-levels to produce much than a small rain shower in the absence of any synoptic scale disturbances.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Not much overall change to this pattern. The GFS shows East Central Florida to be 'especially dry' all things considered, whereas South Florida might see a surge of moisture on Sunday for greater coverage there. Otherwise, the Panhandle and spots along the west coast later in the day are the better areas for thunder with the spine of the state westward all potential clients of at least a rain shower.

SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY: Trough of low pressure over the northeast states (aloft) will carve south enough to shift the low level ridge axis to South Central Florida ending the easterly flow of recent days ..which will result  in morning offshore winds mainly north of West Palm (though quite light)..while the mid-level ridge aloft will meander somewhere across South Central to Central Direct. Thus, expect to wake up early to a completely different scenario at sunrise than will be the case the next two more mornings.

This overall scheme of things especially sets in around Tuesday, though there are some variations of the theme  in location as to where the ridge axis will be on any given day in particular;  it's just too soon to get into the nitty-gritty details. However, the scene is set it now appears for a new pattern to be established for several consecutive days in the next coming wee.

Overall, the period of MONDAY-FRIDAY appears will be one that sea breezes from both coasts will be at hand with enough moisture to play with, especially as they begin to converge on the center of the state with some days perhaps acquiring a slight leaning tendency to favor toward the east  just a bit for rainstorm and thunderstorm coverage. No days so far show enough of an easterly push for storms to work the whole way off the coast though, so many coastal locations (meaning within 1/2 mile of the beach) could well remain dry almost this entire upcoming week. Suspect many afternoons will end with much cloud cover however from anvil debris (at least)...and some outflows from inland might work their ways to the beaches...producing at least some showers.

Must point out that as this time approaches the forecast each day will greatly be contingent upon smaller scale parameters and localized 'events' such as outflow boundaries, lake/sea breezes, as well as exactly WHEN the early day activity actually gets going. All it takes is for a cluster of earlier day activity, even before sunrise (e.g. toward the Cedar Key area on the west coast) throw a wrench in the forecast for the entire day for some areas, especially in regard to the timing of when the best chances of rain will be. In other words, this time frame could be categorized as one of the 'typical summer' patterns, of which there are several.

TROPICS: The GFS is picking up on a tropical disturbance to enter the picture (potentially) by early next week to be located over the Western Caribbean region in general and to continue moving west and north in the general direction of South Florida in days to come; however, variations to this theme are already cropping up to include a tropical storm or even low end hurricane to curve well before reaching the state. 

The thing to consider is that it by that time it is not out of the question for tropical storms to begin to play a larger role in the long term forecast as we find our way out of the ' early-mid July lull".

No comments:

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Strong to 'Isolated Pulse Severe' Storms Possible Today Parts of the Interior

July 8, 2014  Storm Moves in on The Beaches
TODAY: Ample moisture , good surface heating and mixing ratios, with precipitable water values (PW) on the KSC sounding at 1.74" and 500mb temperature a cool -8 t0 -8.5C; Tampa is at 1.81 PW with similar 500mb temperature and both reading around 8C at 700mb ,  (as too is the same case with Miami) reveals fairly uniform conditions more or less across the region (peninsular North Central to South Florida). 

The surface ridge axis is approximately across a line running east -west across Lake Okeechobee whereas the mid level ridge axis is close to Central Florida to South Central Florida. Winds at all levels are generally 10kts or less...but from the west to southwest surface up through the mid-levels mainly north of a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota.

What this all amounts to is both sea breezes to become active and progress inland in due time (but at what rate is always a mystery) with the area around the Big Bend and SE Florida to potentially 'go off' earlier along their respective sea breeze fronts which appears to be at hand already as of 11:55AM...

As this activity sets off outflows and propagates even newer activity going toward mid afternoon the sea breezes themselves will begin to work inland..further inland from Southeast Florida north and westward...and further inland toward the east and south from NW Florida.

All this 'should' come together with accompanying moisture convergence and Deep Moisture Convergence in the presence of colder air aloft and moderate instability in the lower levels to result in perhaps some water overloading aloft leading to strong downburst winds near heavier storms. 

Given the temperature profiles aloft (which are rather cool toward the colder side as far as the summer norm is concerned) a brief spurt of hail might also occur in some isolated storms which if the cards were to fall just right in isolated areas could result in Pulse Severe.

Activity might be able to find its way all the way to the beach proper mainly from near Oak Hill (southern Volusia) and north and toward US1 or I-95 further south. Local area affects along the eastern and north eastern banks of Lake Okeechobee will not be referred to at this point as those are too localized to be worth surmising due to the large scale overall scenario at hand today, though the 'potential' is there for that  area to have some anomalies to contend with as well.  

Some light rain even might be able to be realized at the beaches proper as far south as Central Brevard eventually accompanied by some rumbles aloft? We'll just have to see.

SUNDAY: Similar scenario in the all - in - all other than that temperatures aloft might not be quite as cold; on the other hand, the immediate beaches might have a better chance at rainfall on Sunday north of Vero Beach as the surface ridge takes its most sturdy plunge southward both at the surface and up through the mid levels resulting in better (though quite weak) west to east steering.

MONDAY: Pattern begins to change. Appears air aloft might warm as winds at most levels come to be more from the south to south -southeast direction. with moisture still around there might' be showers near the beaches early on but that activity would shift to the interior in rapid fashion working into mid afternoon.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Moisture from the old tropical system well out in the Atlantic is forecast to approach Florida . If so, it would be rather transparent to residents; just another day at the office more or less with maybe some showers nearer the coast earlier in the day ,  with maybe Thursday being 'that day of higher chances toward the west coast late in the day, and east coast early on'    ..then Friday might be a transition day...

BEYOND (yet still?): Upper level trough might dig south along the the Appalachians providing for better storm coverage toward the east side of the state again next weekend. Yet as we approach ...

(Magic Eight-ball Time: MONDAY and BEYOND of THE NEXT WEEK: All eyes might be on the tropics with a system that has been being forecast to move across or near Cuba and perhaps poise Florida as a target within 'eye' site. Too much uncertainty at this point. Historically speaking, there has been very little tropical activity to ever hit Florida prior to the last week of July that was above tropical storm status across all recorded (officially) history.

No comments:

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Strong Storms Possible Today Mainly North Down through East Central

Sunrise Tuesday, June 27 2017 Off the Florida East Coast
TODAY: Frontal boundary this morning remains near I-10 and most guidance implies that it will wash out today somewhere between there and the I-4 Corridor from Daytona west toward North Tampa Bay area later in the day if it can make it that far.

Morning soundings show slightly cooler air aloft across the boards both at 500mb and 700mb though the coolest from near Ormond Beach to Jax on the east coast. Steering hasn't changed much though there is about a 10mph nudge on average toward the east coast for Brevard and Indian River Counties , and a bit more of one further north. Thinking is a possible severe category storm could occur in that area around the St John's River Valley as was the case yesterday though haven't included in the graphic for 'severe' as if so, would be far too isolated to be 'forecast-able' without any real synoptic scale features of dominance at play  .

Other stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze front might occur however as far south as Indian River County closer to or just west of I-95  (and maybe even yet further south due to more of the mesoscale boundary interactions than for other reasons further north, namely better instability at the lower levels where cloud cover is not as prevalent. This activity might be able to work toward the east coast but might not retain the 'strong' caliber in the process of doing so.

Rains could dwindle Eastern Parts of North Central or Central to after dark, and even some thunder could occur then as well.

Activity might get an earlier start too near the immediate coast as the sea breeze kicks in anywhere from West Palm Beach and north, with favored areas being near Lake Okeechobee (St Lucie, Martin Counties) and the north side of the Cape (Brevard).

WEDNESDAY: High pressure  moving across the Carolinas, though not exceptionally strong will begin to take the steering aloft further south to almost nothing but with a tendency, especially later in the day for storms to drift more toward the west rather than the east.   Remnant boundary moisture could pool however across Central so even locations 'near the coast' might get a shot at some showers or thunder as the sea breeze along the east coast develops with any stronger activity waiting until later in the day further inland.

THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly interior thunder and over toward Route 27 - I-75 appears to be where the better chance of storms will occur. Showers still possible earlier in the day some east coast locations but too early to peg down where at this stage.

FOURTH WEEKEND To THE FOURTH: Not much change in thinking . Will likely be some isolated bursts of lightning around on the fourth , mainly inland  while the east coast beaches for the most part remain rain free (?). Overall, looks very like typical July pattern coming up this weekend into early next week with the ridge axis oscillating to be located somewhere between Central to North Florida favoring the I-4 corridor and most of Southwest Florida...then also up across much of North Florida.

No comments:

Monday, June 26, 2017

Greater Rainfall Coverage - Isolated Rainfall Amounts over 2" Possible

On this date, June 26, 2014. Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: We'll, give'r yet another try to see what can be brewed up today across the state. Morning soundings came in similar to yesterday morning's temperature wise aloft, but with a bit more moisture above 700mb. Last evenings soundings showed that the 700mb level had warmed up to 10C from a cooler morning reading and in part resulted in less activity (and of less strength), but will surmise that the same will not occur today due to consistency across model guidance shown between models and within model runs that more coverage is to be expected. Will it ring true ?

Per surface analysis combined with mesoscale features appears ye olde frontal boundary is close to the I-10 up along the Panhandle whereas a secondary zone of 'contention', almost like a broad pre-frontal boundary or deformation zones lies roughly along a line, on the south end, running east to west from near Titusville west to Brooksville, with the northern side running from near Ormond Beach toward Cedar Key on the west coast. Within that zone is where the greatest coverage is expected at least for starters but wouldn't bet that's where the activity will be toward early evening as suspect that area will be the first to blow up north. 

Further north yet still colder air aloft combined with convergence along the boundary  itself might yield a stronger storm or two which could even move off shore at such locales as JAX , Ponte Vedra, St. Augustine,  and south toward Palm Coast.

Further south sea breeze converge combined with greatest moisture running along to just north of the I-4 is the next bone on contention to pick .  Some activity could move off shore here as well for at least Central Volusia and north if things were to work out just so. Other activity even over Pinellas County however, might be able to get an early start just prior to or as the west coast sea breeze manifests.  In this area and perhaps a bit further south, due to slow storm motions we could see an isolated report or two of over 2.00" of rain before all is said and done.

Dead Central might see some isolated showers pop up mainly along the northside of the Cape earlier in the day but suspect the real show for Central will primarily not begin until after 4:30-5pm and could last up through 10pm or so. Most activity will eke toward US1 but might not be able to  bridge the gap across the rivers due to extremely slow steering in competition with the sea breeze.

As we journey further south toward Vero on down expect sea breezes will have worked will inland before any activity can really get going with any true punctuated vigor, more like a comma to the day,  other than a few showers and maybe some thunder near Lake Okeechobee as the sea breeze sets up. Though this graphic shows thunder well south, most of it will be isolated (within those areas, except for Central/Northern parts of the state where the concentration might be a bit greater later today) Okeechobee County comes to mind.

TUESDAY: Though this day has looked for a while like a 'good coverage' day for the most part, not sure how well cloud coverage from today's activity will have cleared and as a result we'll just have to wait until then. Other than that fact though, better rain chances continue south of I-4, with even a better chance of east coastal rains well down the remainder of the state while the far north begins to dry out a bit.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Storms will mainly favor the spine of the state to the west a bit, though showers could occur further east, even at the coast  earlier in the day but be isolated at best.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY - FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Looks like a typical summer set up so far, with perhaps a bit above normal in the rain chance category. GFS model keeps going back and forth on which side of the state (if any) might be more favored for late day thunderstorms on the Fourth. The last GFS run was   favoring the east side of the state just a bit, whereas the previous run showed no chance of storms for the east coast for nearly a good 2 weeks. Just too far out in time to make that determination.

No comments:

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Slightly More Shower/Storm Coverage Today - Stronger Storms Possible North on Monday

TODAY: Slight 'improvement' in the rain chance category over the Interior today, mainly for North and North Central to parts of Central.

Morning soundings at MIA/Tampa/and KSC all came in with a shallower dry layer air in the mid levels at and above 700mb , though there is still an inversion it is not as strong. Temperatures aloft at the standard 700mb/500mb levels have cooled 2C to 2.5C as well with 700mb no longer reading the difficult to penetrate 11C but rather around 8.5C at the Cape. This should allow showers to form more readily except where a thin veil of higher clouds is currently located over parts of North Central (and as seen below).

Last evening a storm or two lasted well into the evening where remaining boundaries interacted across regions that retained some instability during the day and suspect the same will hold true this evening as  at this time of year small patterns of 2-3 days tend to repeat themselves in the absence of any large (synoptic scale ) invasions or changes.   Image shown above is but a general representation of where the better chance of thunder might occur, but not necessarily exclusively so.

 MONDAY: Aforementioned frontal boundary mentioned in previous post now near the Florida/Georgia border will be undergoing frontalysis as it is forced toward Central Florida on Tuesday. In the interim, another day of storms , some possibly 'strong' mainly near to north of I-4 is in the cards as colder air aloft starts to over take that region. For now it looks like 'possibly stronger than usual' storms will be along the east half of the spine of the state or close to the St Johns River Valley basin west of JAX southward toward Interior Volusia and Seminole to Orange Counties. More activity possible elsewhere down to Lake Okeechobee.

TUESDAY: Again frontal boundary as of the last GFS model to make it to about Titusville or Canaveral toward Sarasota before losing all identity later in the day. Stronger storms possible most anywhere on this day across the same regions as the day before but with an even closer favoring toward the East Coast with some making it off the coast mainly from near South Daytona northward. Increasing cloud cover as well most areas by later in the day, though more than likely the morning will start off with more clouds as well from remnant debris  clouds lingering from the day before yet to have been completely dissipated.

WEDNESDAY: Easterly flow starts to take hold through the remainder of the week favoring the west side of the state for afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Friday, with a remote chance of an early to mid morning shower at the beaches in isolated fashion mainly from the Cape south before noon time.

WEEKEND: Appears we could enter a phase, especially by Sunday that will continue to favor the west side but will also manifest storm coverage over much of the interior as flow could become less easterly and more southerly in nature. All but the areas east of I95 could see storms though the further south one goes the more to the west the storms will be as the Atlantic ridge axis meanders between Dead  Central northward up to the Florida/GA border at this time; quite typical of a summer like pattern.

FOURTH OF JULY: Looks like a typical summer time pattern will be fully in place with showers/thunder possible driven mainly be sea/lake breezes (at least for now), and remaining over the interior with perhaps a leaning that would favor more toward the east side of the state later in the day into early evening (though it's too early to say for certain as guidance this far out is extremely inconsistent )

No comments:

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Showers/Storms Possible Mainly Well Inland Central/North Central (with a caveat)

June 23, 2014 Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Slowly approaching a more summer-like pattern in the 'storm arena' today. Surface ridge axis is pulling a bit off to the east of Central Florida and dropping a bit south as well during the course of the day.  This was immediately notable over night as wind at the surface picked up from the south (rather than from the east as it has been the past few days).

 Conditions unfavorable for showers/storms most areas to start the day but this will quickly change going into early afternoon  from west to east as moisture at the necessary level creeps back into frame .  Better chances or earlier day convective showers appears to be running along a line about 50 miles north of I-4 earlier today and south toward Sarasota. 

In fact if the latest RAP analysis has any credence, there is a very poor chance of anything but low topped showers anywhere over the entire peninsula south of a line running from near Brooksville northeast toward St Augustine as or 9AM.

Steering is from the SW but extremely weak and net affect of it will be almost nil. Thus, apparent storm 'motions' today will be inland along sea breeze/outflow/and lake boundaries.

Earlier activity 'anticipated' further north as noted could set up a secondary boundary a bit further south toward I-4 by late day.  Temperatures aloft remain warm today per models but the early morning KSC sounding says otherwise at around -8.5C for 500mb at least; on the other hand the 700mb temperature came in a nearly impenetrable +11C for updrafts. Further investigation of the Miami and Tampa soundings shows that they too are showing a very warm 11C and very dry above that level. All in all, that would spell out mostly 'showers' at best (or worst, depending on how one looks at it) for the entire day unless something can change 'rather drastically'.

All in all, will give the benefit of the doubt during this time of transition and stick with the chance for some thunder very late today toward early evening when sea breezes and random boundaries work their magic.

SUNDAY: Earlier guidance wasn't showing much of a difference for today though the situation is different. The Atlantic Ridge axis by now having pulled away from the state is replaced by one stretching across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and breaching across North Central Florida.  Have seen this before in past summers, and when it does occur the storm coverage is meager at best. But will the same hold true this time?  

The over all affect is for similar conditions with little to no steering aloft is what model guidance implies. As usual in summer, things will likely change in the guidance by tomorrow as even the latest GFS of the 2AM run shows more coverage and closer to the east coast (mainly Central and North Central/North) southwest toward Naples than it has in previous runs.

MONDAY: Frontal boundary will be near I10 later in the day to work southward as advertised in previous post. The big change from that post is that the boundary is no longer forecast to get hung up near the FL/GA border but rather make it's way into Central Florida.

Noting, this 'boundary' is more of the leading edge of high pressure building east and south from the Deep South region rather than a bona-fide 'front' by the time it gets to Central Florida.

In any case, increasing moisture pooled within the remnant boundary as it undergoes frontalysis should lead to good coverage of showers and storms on Monday mainly in from the immediate coast except north of the Cape where some activity might be able to work or even propagate offshore the east coast. More cloud cover this day as well, especially by later in the day many areas.

TUESDAY: This day is 'up for grabs in the region of Central Florida and north depending on how fast the high pressure area builds east and south and just how expansivee it will be. The GFS is oscillating from run to run in either have the leading edge or 'the front' make it through Central well before noon time, whereas other runs old off until around sunset. This will be an integral factor on where it will thunder/rain on Tuesday. 

If it holds off a bit there is a  good chance of thunder Central Florida, even at the coast from Sebastian and north, but if it presses south faster than expected (which is possible) chances are greatly diminished. Temperatures aloft his day should be cooler as well, or at least are thought will be, which could yield some stronger storms. For now will go with strong storms Southwest Florida (Tampa and south).

BEYOND: Regardless of what occurs with the 'boundary' , traces of it are consistently show to lay across North Central Florida or Central more or less for another day or two. The overall scheme will be 'easterly flow' as the high pressure builds across to the north of the state in which means all thunder will be limited to the west side of the state for the remainder of the week. 

On the other hand, with ample moisture in place we could see showers even at the coast at almost anytime but most likely manifesting either over night or during the mid-morning to noon time hours before working inland along the east coast sea breeze.

How long this easterly flow pattern will remain is uncertain. Hints that it will last until around Saturday are showing up when another mid-upper level trough and associated frontal boundary works across the mid-Atlantic states which would in turn  shift the steering  from east to west to more of one being from south to north and eventually favor the east side of the state more so come the Sunday , Monday or as late as Tuesday time frame.

TROPICS: No tropical threats foreseen and likely will remain of little concern at least until around the last week of July. Investigation of historical records shows there have been a very low number of named tropical system in 'recorded history' to hit Florida prior to July 24 (in July); any that did were weak.

No comments:

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Mainly Dry Today - "Summer Classics Begin Next Week"

Sunrise at Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Potential to be named Tropical System in Gulf centered at the surface is to the west and south of the large canopy of clouds as forecast models at time are in agreement for the low to eventually make a landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border in the next 48 hours. This of course might change, but will go with what we got. Regardless, closer to home as suspected might end up being the case if the system got more wrapped up, much of Florida would 'dry out' (that is, in the mid to upper levels).  

There is a moisture gradient from West to East Florida with the east half of the state drying out a bit which will continue for the rest of the day. Temperatures aloft are a bit warmer, especially at 700mb right in the middle of a dry layer so see no need to even mention rain outside of quick low topped shower almost anywhere due to lack of moisture and poor lapse rates.

 Lack of sea breeze convergence along the west coast might preclude the thunder chances there too (despite what the Tampa Forecast Discussion reads, will omit). The better chances for thunder is up along I-10, from around Gainesville out up through Tally to Pensa.

TOMORROW: Better chances of showers and/or thunder from mainly Central Polk or Osceola County and northward. Guidance hasn't come to terms with where the better chances of the rain might fall , for the NAM has it more toward the western side of the state but the GFS points to Central with a workings toward the east coast.

 Regardless, will take it while we can and go in favor of the GFS for showers/thunder possible from Polk/Osceola/Parts of Brevard/Volusia and north ( but mainly interior) because...

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: .... these days look much more on the drier side. Note that there couldn't be a shower, even thunder over the interior, but it's just not looking to ripe for the pickins so won't bother elaborating for now, besides that some things will change along the way in regard to moisture availability but for now it's looking a bit grim to go for much beyond  'isolated chance'.

MONDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK: Finally, say it is so, because for the first time since June began it looks like we will have a prolonged period of 'summer type' weather at last. 

Temperature wise that hasn't been too much an issue, it's been the overall synoptic (large scale pattern/patterns) we've been under the influence of that has been far from playing to the tune of  " sea-breeze convergence over the interior" exclusively type feel that one looks for during the summer across the peninsula.  

At this point, appears a frontal boundary will press south toward the Florida/GA Border come around Wednesday and wash out somewhere near there in the days to follow. Ample moisture , boundary collisions and weak steering toward the east coast and some days and more toward the west coast on other days.  The surface to mid level ridge axis appears will waver  between Lake Okeechobee (the 'Big Lake) region to as far north as South Georgia. 

 If it is to the north of Central Florida..flow favors the west coast for late day storms. 

If the ridge is from just north of the lake and South, flow favors the east coast. 

And if it is give or take within 50 miles of Central direct..neither coast is much favored but for the interior. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it all ...plays out.

No comments:

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Stronger Storms Possible Interior Central/North Central Later Today

"Strong' Thunderstorm Approaching Parts of North Brevard Late Friday Afternoon

TODAY: Not much change in thinking from  yesterday's post in regard to a bit less moisture and ridge axis gradually lifting north from South Florida as the day progresses. These two combined will alter the overall coverage and location of said coverage later in the day as a result of where the sea breeze collision is most likely to occur. (side note: Some 'stronger' storm reports did filter in yesterday , namely in regard to wind gusts  in the 38-52 mph range over parts of Brevard and Southern Volusia County).

For today, ridge axis across Far South Central will lift north after noon time as sea breezes begin to develop. There is a chance of showers and even thunder to occur interior area of St Lucie and/or Martin Counties as the merger of sea-breeze/Lake Okeechobee Breeze occurs. This activity, if it does develop, could further aid to spread outflow boundaries further inland and north toward Central Florida.

Meanwhile, activity around the Big Bed and across I-10 which may develop and spread east (remnants of 'energy' from the Southern Plains region) could also help to spread boundaries south and eastward.

Grungy Shelf Hinting at Cool Outflow Beginning to Take Over by Lower Clouds as Storm Presses East

Overall atmospheric moisture content I will surmise has decreased a bit though early morning soundings are not yet available. Regardless, will base the discussion  on continuity that even if they come in 'moist' (like yesterday) it will decrease a bit during the day. Regardless, whatever moisture there is will be at the proper levels of the atmosphere (lower and mid -levels) to permit storms to form. 

Expecting then the best 'convergence' for greatest lift will occur a bit further inland and more northward today as the east coast sea breeze will have been able to have manifested both for a longer amount of time with greater inland penetration  as the ridge axis lifts north before wedding with the west coast sea breeze boundary.

Image shows a potential region of best low level converge / lift (in red) though not exclusively so. Another area which is highly conditional for some stronger activity is far SW Interior Florida or toward the Southwest side of Lake O.

Some rains might be able to find their way back to the coast eventually as light, debris type rains as winds in the upper levels (beginning around 20,000 ft) will remain a 'good' WSW strength to at least bring cloud cover back, mainly North Brevard northward.

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Again, not much change in the highly questionable, 'what will become of what is to become of what might occur around the Yucatan' time frame. 

Guidance is still in disparity about what will occur in this region going into Monday. Regardless, deeper moisture is still forecast to make a return from South to North from morning through mid-late afternoon tomorrow from mid-morning through late afternoon. 

Suspect that earlier day activity will begin across South Florida and spread north and west during the day. Along the immediate east coast north of Vero Beach this might manifest eventually only as cloud cover but no guarantees. 

If the moisture spreads north more quickly before too much of an onshore (ESE-SE wind) flow develops, we might see an area of showers/storm working south to north even up the coastal areas, though as of this time thinking is that 'true rainfall' will remain 'just west' of I-95 north of Vero or Sebastian.

Increasing cloud coverage might also limit the extent of actually 'thunder' on Sunday as well as that we might not see a vigorous sea breeze collision this day, and as a result, not as many thunderstorms.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much is contingent on the outcome of strength/movement of what is to occur in the tropics. Overall, the better chances of rainfall and storms appears to be over the western 1/4 or 1/3 of the state from Ft Myers up to the Big Bend in the next few days, with coastal activity (esp. in the late night/early morning) along the east coast also a possibility. Again, though, this time frame appears to be a big TBD.

 Regardless, it seems most likely that rain chances for the regions east of I-95 may significantly decrease going into Monday or Tuesday through late week next week as flow becomes more southeasterly from bottom to top.

Outside of 'that potential' the next pattern shift to favor more toward the east coast is not foreseen until around the 24th time frame.

No comments: