"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, November 10, 2017

Fall Phase II Begins Today - Winter Like Weather By Thanksgiving?

One Year Ago This Morning -  2016
TODAY: Weak frontal boundary characterized mainly by low and mid-level cloud cover and wind shift to northeast wind progressing southward will lay across South Central Florida near day break along a line near Central Brevard Country to south of Tampa Bay on the west coast. Just ahead to behind the boundary satellite imagery indicates what appears to be rather extensive cloud cover in the lower to mid-levels. There is no rain showing up along this boundary and none is anticipated but for perhaps later today for near St. Lucie - Palm Beach counties.

Wind behind the boundary is from the northeast gusting toward 20 mph and with cloud cover in the offing today, mainly for parts  of South Central Florida and northward, afternoon high temperatures will be inevitably cooler than the past few days other than for areas across South Florida where cloud cover will not be extensive and any affect from the dwindled boundary will be but hardly realized at all.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY: Some guidance indicates the chance of onshore moving rain-shower activity mainly for Indian River County northward toward Flagler County sometime after 2AM Saturday morning with the 4KM NAM model favoring Central - North Brevard to Volusia county initially.

What is to remain of the boundary either way will have lifted just a bit northward  but mainly above ground level. The surface boundary itself will have been fully absorbed into the synoptic scale high pressure area north of the state with little trace of its remains other than a moisture boundary.  No changes will be realized temperature/wind wise at the surface other than a bit of a veering more toward an ENE component. 

 Most guidance does indicate rain however, but exactly where is a tough call. Any rain that does fall would be 1/4" or less. All in all Saturday does not look like a wash-out anywhere, but cloud cover might continue to be a real bug-a-boo.

SUNDAY:  Sunday morning temperatures right near the coast will be closer to 70F (south of Daytona Beach) and cooler just a bit inland, but the bigger change and hence 'Fall Phase II" will be afternoon highs not reaching 80F (though some might see 80F from Vero and South) but more toward the middle-upper 70Fs depending on cloud cover. Chances for now favor upper 70Fs. 

Any rain-shower activity that might occur earlier on Saturday  will have worn thin and made history.

Otherwise, this day looks to be characterized by typically mid 'fall' like conditions of easterly to ENE wind and  little to no chance of rain -  cloud cover varying from scattered to perhaps a bit cloudy at times. 

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Decreasing cloud cover but not much warmer with highs remaining in the 70Fs . Coolest locations in the morning inland from the immediate east coast (where closer to 70F will be realized). 

WEDNESDAY: Another back door front presses down the state either later Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will only serve to re-enforce the air mass already in place. 

Rain chance  with this boundary appears to be even lower than with the one currently at hand. The difference with this boundary is that   cooler morning lows might be realized  along the immediate coast (lower-mid 60Fs and 50Fs inland).  

Those temperatures look very close to being 'here to stay' for the most part, though the GFS might be over-dramatizing the situation a bit (which would be typical for that model). 

Overall it looks like 80Fs will be increasingly few and far between and hence the 'Fall Phase II" period.

BEYOND:  The current trend is for continued cooler with this second boundary's passage, but with a lighter (less breezy conditions) wind from more of a northerly component come mid-late week. 

 The GFS is flopping around quite a bit lately heading toward the week of Thanksgiving and in parallel is the Climate CFSV2 model showing a similar picture.

 That being, not one , but several cold air intrusions beginning any time from around Tuesday of the week  of Thanksgiving to the day after Thanksgiving, and in both cases , it just goes downhill from there. 

By cold is meant  widespread morning lows in the 40Fs if not some 30Fs accompanied by the expected gusty winds (and wind chill factor) that herald in  'goodbye to fall'.   

 How reliable is that portion of the outlook? Not necessarily very, but then again: 

The CFSV2 was showing what the blogger would consider the 'typical first cold blast of the winter season' to occur during the first week of December (two days ago). History has shown that in many years the period between the 4th - 8th of December might be seen as a 'classic time frame' for that first true 'wintry feeling' cold air mass to intrude into and across the state. Such abrupt changes take a bit of getting accustomed to as coats suddenly get hauled out of hibernation.

However, the last run as of last night suddenly shifted that to Tuesday of the week of Thanksgiving, though the GFS which was showing something similar suddenly backed off. These discrepancies indicate the increasing disparities and uncertainty in long  range forecast model skill. 

Both of them  attribute any said wintry blast'  to a very large area of low pressure, and re-enforcements to it,  forming over the Eastern Great lakes and into Northeast states  with nowhere for the low to go but sit in place and deepen as it extends well into the Deep South -- with Florida being on the receiving end of air flowing southward along the back side of 'said prognosed region of blocked low pressure'.

For now, such speculation could well change.  On the other hand, one way or another, days ahead for those who favor truly cooler to colder dry weather is showing up on the horizon, if not for now, only hypothetically.

November 23, 2016

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Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Fall is Here to Stay

Late October of 2015, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool spell of late will begin the vanishing act going into this afternoon through Wednesday. Morning temperatures ranging around the state from near 40F to as warm as 60F (warmest in the Keys) will quickly moderate through noon into the mid afternoon hours as wind becomes a light NNE to NE direction and dew-points rise from the lower 30Fs-40Fs never to sink back down again but for the west side of the state - panhandle regions mainly during the overnight hours to early morning Wednesday.

Highs today in the lower 70Fs for the most part state wide with a few mid-70Fs under clear skies. Temperatures falling west of I95 after dark but very slowly more along the immediate east coast near to east of US1 where easterlies passing across warm ocean waters will hold that descent at bay.

Per title of today's Post, it appears per long range guidance that dew points in the 70Fs, or at least any semblance of mid-70F dew-points and warmer are pretty much gone for good, thus welcoming in The Fall Season. that is here to stay.

 Dew-points in the summer run in the upper 70Fs to even near 80F but that is not happening anytime soon.  Temperature can't go any lower, however, than the dew-point temperature so it goes to follow that the higher the dew-point in the morning, the warmer the ambient outside temperate too will be whereas lower dewpoints over night also means cooler mornings all around, especially as the sun angle is getting lower and days shorter to boot.

WEDNESDAY: Warmest at  sunrise up and down the east coast along the A1A strip, even more so outer barrier islands to relish in the 'not so quite as cool' air, yet hardly 'warm '. Lows per GFS are showing lower 60Fs at beaches while the NAM model is spitting out closer to 70F. Will draw a compromise pointing toward the 67F -69F range in those locations, warming inland later in the day toward upper 70Fs but the coast a tad cooler. Either way, round the clock 70Fs are in the offing for the beaches come Thursday (or close to it).

THURSDAY: Not much change really as morning lows inland will begin to more fully realize the rising dew-points with warmer mornings more toward upper 50Fs and eventually lower 60Fs in some locations, with a better chance of seeing 70F at the beaches themselves. No chance of rain. That is to say, if per chance any depth in moisture is realized to manifest more than pancake stratocumulus clouds, chances are it wouldn't be enough to get the ground wet.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Highs reaching lower 80Fs, and lows in 60Fs except immediate beach-side in the lower 70Fs with increasing patches of various low level types of clouds from time to time.

A large, inverted trough will be forming well to the east of the state from the Bahamas or east of there up toward offshore Hatteras, and the net affect will be to keep winds just backed a bit to the ENE or occasionally NE. Eventually at some point overnight they might be able to back to NW briefly overnight near the coast which would result in a cooler morning or two. Otherwise, the afternoons will be running right on par with climatic norms of lower 80Fs with dew-points (and morning lows) in the lower to mid 60Fs.

FAR BEYOND: No cool spells of the caliber recently experienced over the past 8 days will be experienced again for quite some time, at least until mid-November as it looks now. Likewise, no 'rain events' or even measurable rain at all in some locations will  need to be addressed. Not to say heading toward late this week into the weekend some locations might not get a brief soak, but otherwise things appear to have settled down for a change as opposed to having a resting time yet being able to see something else coming along the horizon downstream. That is not the case anymore, for the first time in quite a while. 

Should anything change from the generalities expressed above  to be of impact within a week,  posts will likely resume from that time out.

P.S.   clocks   set back an hour come Saturday evening / early Sunday morning.  One more sign that we've reached the point of no return to what once was.

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Saturday, October 28, 2017

Risk of Heavy Rain / Isolated Strong Storms into Tonight - Very Breezy Sunday

October, 2015: Arcus and Attendant Shelf Descend from the North on Cape Canaveral
 TODAY: Long heralded coming rains in association with to be Tropical Depression / Storm Philippe and approaching cold front all to come together in a meet and greet, then dine and dash fashion over Florida / Straits later today into early Sunday morning.

Already, cloud cover is over-coming  South Florida while the gathering storm is still well to the south as can be seen below. A distinct closed circulation was a bit hard to see last I looked, regardless one can trace with the eye the attempt of it's coming together as a bona-fide cyclone even now. 


THIS AFTERNOON: Warm Central/North Central before cloud cover takes over announcing the coming changes. Rains with potential stronger activity will occur first toward Far SW Florida and around the Keys working to the east coast. Then work north with time. 

POINT OF NOTE AS SEEN IN THE "BLOG" FORECAST: The 'sketchy' area of most interest from my perspective is shown generally to be in the 'White Box'. This area is the more 'upon certain conditions area'   which might or might not occur zone. 

To the South it looks more certain for at least the chance of larger rainfall totals in some areas, especially along and south of a line from  Vero Beach toward Sarasota. The 'White Box zone" addresses a concern of the chance of better instability and upper level shear coming into play in that area after 9PM through 2AM in the morning (mostly) as the cold front and attendant very sharp upper level trough begin to enter the picture. Model consistency has been honing in on the region further south, but must add that in the past 2 days over 8 model runs of the GFS/NAM that area has spread out a bit and seemed to be being lifted north bit by bit. The point being is this:

The weather to impact the majority of the state will not be directly related to any tight circulation with might be linked to TBD Philippe. The mid level circulation appears will be stretched well to the Northeast of any surface circulation of " unknown at this time strength" as the system encounters upper level shear from the approaching trough

AS SUCH WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY: Suspect the risk of stronger activity, even the risk of larger rainfall totals up to maybe 4" could occur as far north as a line from Canaveral toward a region south of Clearwater beginning very late after dark, with light rain before that time. There is a risk of a 'quick change in the turn of events' as time goes on after the 8pm time frame, with the Caveat to such events that far north being indicated as being 'White Boxed".

Thus, the 'white box zone'. Again, that area is a 'conditional risk' though frankly almost all of what might occur today is rather conditioned upon several factors making it difficult to be more precise in where what will happen when  and to what degree. 

Therefore, this post is taking the broad-brush approach to encapsulate in general terms all potentialities.

As usual, all interests for pain or pleasure should consult the NWS information and/or local media viz. their radar interpretation musing for more information later today. South Central sometime beyond 3PM and more toward the Central/North Central after 7PM onward.

SUNDAY: Cold front to move through all of the state early in the day. Most rain will be over prior to sunrise all area but for perhaps along the east coast Vero and South. As skies begin to clear so too will the wind pick up from the NW. Chance we might see Lake Wind Advisories being hoisted for gusts about 32mph, once clouds clear and mixing of the lower mid-levels winds attempt to work to the surface. 

Some guidance is showing wind at only 5000 feet to be  near 35 kts  so there is always the risk we could see gusts above 30 mph , even 35 mph for a short -time from early afternoon-sunset. Highs generally in the lower 70Fs.

MONDAY: This morning might be even cooler than the previous cool spell, with wind mixed in. Generally looking at some upper 40Fs well inland/interior north, with more widespread lower to mid 50Fs elsewhere. The afternoon might also struggle to break 70F in some locations, but we'll see. Wind will have already decreased some at daybreak Monday, and will likely continue to progressively decrease through out the day. By sunset wind will be light and skies clear.

TUESDAY: Day breaks mainly clear and a bit warmer at the coast then the day before. If not, at least the wind factor will be absent and within two hours after sunrise the temperature should quickly rise toward the mid 70Fs, no issue. Tuesday looks to be a fine day. No tricks, all treats.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Wind becomes easterly and slowly increases as high pressure either to the north of the state or over the Atlantic (take your pic) have influence over Florida for quite some time to come. Temperatures to be in the normal range of lower (nterior) to upper 60Fs to near 70F (east coast) and highs in the lower to maybe even mid 80Fs going toward next weekend. 

By Thursday or Friday might see some isolated low topped inconsequential showers work ashore for a few days as well.

Latest Guidance indicates that we could be seeing normal to above temperatures to at least mid November, if not much longer than that . Not possible to know for certain.

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Thursday, October 26, 2017

"Blue and 72 will be the Rule", Rain & Storms Saturday

Great Blue Heron  - Early Morning Surf Fishing

CURRENTLY ( 5AM) : With rather  cool morning temperatures already at hand pre-sunrise, Crestview was at 39F last I saw, Ocala in the upper 40Fs along with many other locations along and north of the latitude across the interior and panhandle regions that are in the mid-upper 40Fs. Some 40Fs could still be realized into Lake County. Elsewhere, mainly 50Fs are being noted, with the warmest area out over the water-surrounded barrier islands of Brevard and south to near Hutchinson Island zones and south. All conditions under 'severe clear' with PWAT (precipitable water ) values down to 0.4" or even less.

Wind over the interior is rather light to even calm, but as expected would be the case, mixing due to surrounding warm waters is resulting in gusts over 15 mph out over the Barrier's with PAFB, Cocoa Beach, reporting a 61F with wind gusts to 17 mph.

THIS AFTERNOON: As high pressure at the surface moves across North Florida expect wind near the beaches to decrease once full heating is realized into mid-afternoon under  a clear sky with high temperatures similar to yesterday's.  "Blue and 72 will be the Rule" m though it might get a bit warmer than 72F today, with highs more toward 74-77F.

TONIGHT: As the rather weak high pressure area continues to progress east and north, wind will come to be a light NE-ENE near the beaches late afternoon / early evening. Though it will weaken and come to be near calm inland overnight, watching to see if this wind persists in a light fashion mainly east of US1 from Brevard County southward. 


Given the above stated, the chance that morning will dawn with a very large temperature gradient between the A1A Corridor up and down the east coast from The Cape south through the Keys, with lows closer to lower to mid 60Fs (considering PAFB is only at 61F this morning similar to the Stuart reporting station), with temperatures rapidly dropping progressively the further toward the interior one goes. There could be as much as a 9-14F degree temperature difference between those walking on the beach from someone for example in the Orlando suburbs or near Lake Okeechobee Friday morning. Clear sky continues though some scrappy - flat topped stratcu (stratocumulus clouds) might become evident along the near shore waters. Warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70Fs. Wind becoming more east to east-southeast late day.

Chance we might see some low topped rain showers move into the coast by early -mid afternoon from the Cape , south.


Low pressure currently located over the far Southwestern Caribbean will be lifting north to eventually NNE -NE across West Central Cuba into Saturday evening  and over-night as a cold front approaches the Florida Panhandle. Increasing wind from the SSE and rain chances thus from South to North , first for the keys and eventually toward South Brevard late day along with cloud cover and precipitable water values from the current 0.4" to up to over 2.00" South Florida by Saturday afternoon.  

Apart from the low of tropical nature, more than one guidance model indicates a secondary, weak low could form toward South Central or even Central Florida as the front takes in some of the positive vorticity  associated with  the more southern feature. 

Larger rainfall totals are more likely from a line running from near Vero Beach to Punta Gorda and south, though the secondary low could end up making for some larger totals as far north as Melbourne or even Cape Canaveral (mainly east of Orlando area) . This 'secondary area' is in question though. 

Official 'outlets' are advertising mainly the first area exclusively, and the latest Canadian and GFS models would agree. The outlier NAM (which tends to over-cast beyond 18 hours or less) implies up to 4" possible as far north as the Cape.  Any rainfall  of heavier nature, if they do fall north of Vero Beach and especially Sebastian inlet, will likely not be to occur  until a   9PM - 4AM Sunday morning window of opportunity.

Along with the rainfall, the risk of strong wind gusts in isolated, or embedded activity could occur across parts of South Central and South Florida as shown in the graphic below. The Storm Prediction Center is not nearly so generous with the 'marginal severe risk zone', with eyes mainly on the Keys and eastern Dade/ Broward county region. This could change however, as the actual time draws nigh and models come into better agreement.


Otherwise, it's all for naught as this southern system and cold front all are swept east with much drier and cooler air to follow . Very brisk NW wind appears to be on the plate for all day Sunday, with gusts in the 24-30mph range possibly with highs in the lower 70Fs or so.


 Cool morning in store with decreasing wind. Temperature similar to this morning, but perhaps just a bit warmer. 


Another cool morning with light wind and a moderating temperature trend going into the afternoon and beyond.


Resume to normal temperatures with highs in lower 80Fs and lows in the lower-mid 60Fs but much closer to 70F or warmer at the beaches , especially Thursday through the weekend. 

Chance of marine showers coming ashore almost any time by Thursday time frame and beyond.

EVEN BEYOND:  Going into the star-gazing part of the forecast -  

Granted, talking well out to the beyond reliable time frame, but so far  long-range implications are no more blasts from the north for quite some time to come. The long range climate type model shows no temperatures as cool as what we've seen (and will see come Monday) with any cooling whatever associated with more of the 'back-door cold front' type  for a good 10-14 days.

 If one were to believe the CFSV2 (which is not advised post 6 Days) it won't be this cool again all the way out to nearly Thanksgiving. Never trust a fortune teller.

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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Potentially Active Period Ahead Through Sunday

Winging It A Bit on The Forecast
TODAY       Not much change from previous post. Latest surface analysis based on the 10AM  reported surface observations places a rather 'broad' cold front's leading edge along a line from near Port St John extending  WSW (West Southwest) toward South Tampa Bay or a bit south of there. 

     The front is not expected to make significant further southward progress for much of the day, and might still be located in Southern Brevard  or Indian River County even at sunset. There is still ample moisture up through 10,000 feet to yield at least cloud cover behind the boundary for a good 50 miles or even some lower topped showers behind the boundary or on it, and perhaps some thunder further south, especially after 2-3PM (South Central Florida).   

      There was quite a bit of rain last night, though most missed out on "The Action" while asleep. Some rainfall totals across North Brevard from near Cape Canaveral, parts of Merritt Island, Port St John, Titusville were between 4-5.00" of rainfall. 

I know my street was completely underwater , the parking blocks in the street were as islands, the only sign that there was even a street there. But come sunrise, 'all better now'.

TONIGHT: Front will press on south and clear South Central Florida sometime after midnight. The driest of air, however, will still not have moved into all of Central Florida   Wednesday morning, yet will be on the way.

WEDNESDAY: Lows at the beaches south of the Cape in the lower-mid 60Fs but a bit cooler west of I-95, and even cooler further north. Skies will likely have cleared all of North Central by sunrise or will be about to.  Brisk NW will yield highs in the mid-70Fs during day time heating as incoming cooler air is mixed to the ground level.

WEDNESDAY EVENING - THURSDAY MORNING: Coolest morning by far since around last April.  Wind will have weakened substantially as the driest of air also will move down most of the peninsula after dark, with true 'drying' commencing for all of Central shortly after midnight. 

The drier the air, the lower the ambient  outside air temperature can go.  

Thursday mornings lows over Interior North Central in the upper 40Fs mainly , while in contrast from near the Cape southward we will be seeing temperatures in the 56-59F range, give or take plus/minus 2 degrees F , in general. Otherwise, continued clear skies with highs in the lower 70Fs and light wind. Near Chamber of Commerce type afternoon in store.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY : At the 'beaches' south of the Cape wind could progressively become more 'on shore' most notable a bit after sunrise Friday morning. Regardless, the ocean water is still warm and any onshore wind component prior to sunrise at the immediate beach will greatly make a difference to those in its proximity.

 Morning lows at beach might be only a bit cooler than the previous day time high temperature in some locations or be within 5F degrees of it; however, any fluctuation in any one location to westerly wind will make a big difference . Regardless, all areas to warm up rapidly between 9-11AM. No rain this day.

SATURDAY: Before the cool spell is even over we will be hearing more and more about the 'goings on' down in the far Southwest Caribbean.  Already, the NHC is outlining for a '50% chance of development' sometime after Thursday morning. The NAM model  portends like an automated fortune teller that barely has the cooler air moved out than that we will have a Named Storm to the south. The GFS and ECMWF are less generous. 

As it is at this time , there's a 50/50 chance of a named system as noted (whatever that means who can say), so why elaborate any further? 

 It can make a big difference. Ironically, if the system is named and gains enough strength, the less likely Florida will be impacted. If it remains rather strained  to deeper development there is a chance the associated moisture and energy will be rapidly absorbed northward along the leading edge of the next cold front to be arriving in the Sunday time frame. If the storm be named and then sustains it's strength, chances are it would be diverted to far off to the east of South Florida to have much impact, but for the Florida Straits and perhaps far SE Florida.

For now, will go with the 'weaker side' of guidance as a preventative measure in preparation for SATURDAY AFTERNOON - EARLY SUNDAY. If the system does not strengthen too much and is lifted northward, as the GFS and ECMWF imply..Saturday could be quite wet from South to North beginning early morning (South) into Central Florida by noon time or so. Continuing with rain, some heavy into Saturdaay night then mainly clearing out along a cold front first half of Sunday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Chance that again, it will be quite cool , even cooler than the forthcoming episode (but not by much). That is what the GFS is advertising, though will take those colder temperatures with a grain of pepper for now . It tends to overcast low temperatures in the long range (I've noticed as a general principle).

AFTER TUESDAY: Looks like we won't be seeing another cold front for quite some time once we clear early next week. 

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Monday, October 23, 2017

First Cold Front of 2017-2018 Slated for Tomorrow Afternoon

October 16, 2016 Off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Not too much change in the short - term (today) other than that the risk of actual 'thunder' (been a while) is a bit higher than has been previously indicated. The chance , however, is conditional due to how long  a rather "cirious" looking  cirro-stratus deck of high clouds will remain fixed aloft, mainly across North Central into parts of Central. 

The best potential for storms today at the lower levels of the atmosphere (parameters wise) just so happens to be where those clouds are now co-located, which negate any positive affects for storms. 

As a result, the blog will simply indicate the entire region that has the best-overall chance of seeing thunder today ( not necessarily exclusively). The Area over far Southern Interior Florida also appears to be in the game but all areas are in question. If thunder can get going, even rain showers (apart from some that have already manifested along the east coast near Melbourne and south) it would most likely be after 3:00pm or so through 7-8pm.

TUESDAY: Cold front still on the way for mid-week, though it will be a bit slower to make the sweep down the peninsula. All guidance is in agreement that a 2PM FROPA (frontal passage) across Central-Direct will have to be put on hold for early evening. As a result, day time heating, and the questionable amount of cloud cover that might or might not be present   tomorrow will again make for a conditional chance of thunder from Brevard County southward toward Broward County.  Chances are we'll at least see some showers along the cold front however, as that boundary will act as a low level convergence source, and hence , as a lifting mechanism. 

What that also means though is one more day of 'warmth' . The last vestiges , or apparently so, of 2017 Warmth are getting closer and closer to exit the scene until 2018, at least, as a full time resident. Given that days are getting shorter due to lower sun-angle, eventually we will be resigned to realize that the new normal for highs will be in the lower 80Fs and eventually even cooler with time.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front slated to work across Central Florida and be located still along a line from near  Central Brevard toward Southern Sarasota Area around 8PM Tuesday evening, if not a bit further north than that. 

It will have to be waiting for some reinforcements to arrive to make further southward progress, but never fear, they're on the way for the front to make to far South Florida by day break.

What this all means is that morning lows on Wednesday won't be quite as cool as previously anticipated but not by a significant difference. Dry air advection ahead of the parent high pressure area building east across the Deep South will filter in continual fluxes of drier air all day Wednesday and most notably over night Wednesday evening.

 Low Wednesday morning along Coastal Brevard and South might be in the 63-65F degree range with a NW wind , but not a 'strong and gusty' kind of wind. Day time highs in the lower-mid-70Fs , but due to the delayed FROPA this also means that the strongest of cold air advection will be at play during peak heating, which means areas just to the north and/or interior regions North Central and North 'might' struggle to attain 70F  --bearing in mind, what this all means most  for the immediate beaches is that the afternoon High Temperature on Wednesday will be cooler and drier than any of the morning low temperatures  that region has realized since spring.

THURSDAY: Again, driest of air will pave the course to allow  over night lows to 'plummet' into the mid-50Fs many areas interior, even lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs (dare we say it?) over North Central along or near Route 27 (Lake County for example), though upper 40Fs might be a bit much. Regardless, that is the region that will see the coolest temperatures , with the 'less frigid' temperatures coastal Brevard , southward. Lows in the latter region in the upper 50Fs on the outer Barriers, with lower-mid 50Fs closer to US1 and west. Lighter wind this day under pleasant skies. Thursday, after the morning chill, looks like it could be a rather stellar day to go outside and play.

FRIDAY: Fun -n- games over,  mainly east coast as overnight winds attain an onshore component. Morning lows beaches in the mid-upper 60Fs and will rise to to Thursday''s high temperature range with two hours after sunrise more than likely Moistening of the atmosphere will only be slow, but progressively increase a bit heading to Saturday. No rain.

SATURDAY- SUNDAY: Wouldn't be surprise if we have a Tropical Depression on hour hands in the far SW Caribbean 'somewhere' before we see the weekend begin.  Most guidance purports that something of that nature will lift north across Cuba , but likely be pulled just off to the east of the peninsula as the next cold front approaches, with potential rain affecting parts of South Central to all of South Florida  (if  any of this occurs ) with a closest pass to the state. Granted, it's just too soon to say, as the first assumption is that said circulation will manifest, and secondly that it will lift north as well, at least in the mid-term.

Regardless, at this rate nothing to start rationing food and stocking up on batteries over though this weekend at any forecast-rate is up for grabs depending upon the area of interest that the Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of development beyond 48 hours from today (Monday).

More cool weather is on the way it appears now but nothing drastic heading toward next week. 

HALLOWEEN: Given all guidance being shown so far, Halloween looks like it will be dry with seasonable temperatures, nothing frighteningly chilly or spooky wet.

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Saturday, October 21, 2017

Much Cooler WED-THUR, Next Weekend "Uncertain"

TODAY-SUNDAY: Little change  as written in yesterday's post in the short term (link opens new window).  

 Continued a bit breezy near the coast with ENE wind becoming more easterly overnight to even ESE over night before daybreak. Warmest overnight near the coast as a result of the proximity to the warmer. near-shore ocean waters.

As surface wind becomes more southerly ahead of the advertised cold front on Tuesday, there is a slight chance of patchy, mainly low level cloud cover , even a shower or two mainly along the east coast from south to north from before sunrise up through early afternoon. Guidance is not too gung-ho on the showers, but there is still that possibility.

Thus, 'heavy' rainfall not anticipated, though perhaps heavier activity might evolve toward the Ocala area and west of there later in the day as the moisture surge continues north and westward.

MONDAY: Cold front will still be approaching the Western Panhandle as solid southeast wind prevails at the surface. Chances are high clouds will begin to encroach across much of the state from early morning through mid afternoon related to at least in part storm activity over the Gulf or approaching upper level jet stream winds , with perhaps some stronger storm activity over the Western Panhandle. Due to timing earlier in the day and antecedent cloud cover, 'strong to severe' in that area might be an over-kill as surface based instability would be lacking given the earlier in the day timing and the cloud cover.  Shear does not look strong enough to compensate for lack of instability.

Further east and south though, some instability might be able to amount mainly south of  I-4 toward the east coast (perhaps); more possible south of Ft Pierce. Either way, the chance of at least rainfall increases greatly over the remainder of the peninsula working from west to east , mid-morning through mid-afternoon with possibly some embedded thunder. There's no 'strong signal' for definite thunder, however. associated with this pre-frontal activity.

TUESDAY: The GFS has slowed the front down several hours per the latest morning run, but up until this last run it had held fast to a 2PM FROPA across Central Florida, so the jury might still be out on the exact timing. Chances are a conference call is still in order before the final verdict. There be no hung jury on this one though...for....

Regardless, in the end it doesn't make all that much difference. The front  to clear all of Central prior to daybreak Wednesday on which full 'cold air advection'  (per se) will be in swing beginning mid-afternoon through sunset as skies clear later Tuesday into the evevning. There could still be some renegade showers ahead of the front on Tuesday but mostly there will be cloud cover.

WEDNESDAY: Northwest wind to start the day, with lows interior toward Southwest Florida mainly in the mid-50Fs with lower readings far north. Immediate East coast south of Daytona Beach , mainly east of US1 might still be holding in the lower 60Fs on this morning, but with full cold air advection at play during peak heating high temperatures will struggle to get past 74F or so but for far South Florida. Whether some areas ever crack 70F would be interesting to see.

THURSDAY: Still looks to be the coolest of mornings, and perhaps the coolest we might see for a while despite two more fronts on the horizon, but that's for another day.

Widespread lower to mid 50Fs interior with upper 50Fs nearer the coast as wind decreases a bit. Highs in the mid- 70Fs.

FRIDAY: Looks more certain now that 'the wind shift of end alls' will begin overnight such that by sunrise on this day one will be greeted by mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches with increasing moisture already working back on the return play. Still cooler but as cool further inland and along the west side.

SATURDAY-BEYOND: Rain chances could well already be in the offing for South Florida by morning with a chance of showers increasing northward toward the I-4 late morning through mid afternoon. Too soon to say if thunder might be at play in the mix.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: GFS shifting gears several times but at least has some semblance to the Canadian. It is now forming a weak 'surface low ' looking thing WNW of the Western Tip of Cuba which appears to take on some form of a transient sub - tropical nature, though given what it shows now it would be one of 'un-named' origin given the shear aloft. The Canadian looks to have a more definite leaning to the naming convention realm but with the low further to the east, even to miss Florida entirely as it lifts north and east. Would side more with the GFS.

On that assumption, but given how far out still in time we must project, would mention only that what what might evolve would be the risk of some severe weather or large rainfall totals 'Somewhere across the state'. The GFS earlier had the focus on the region mainly along to north of I-4 but has now taken it to South Central Florida. Either way, some large rainfall totals over a 36 - 48 hour time frame could still be in the cards for next weekend. We'll just have to wait it out for a few days more, and in the meantime get adjusted to the more certain cool down on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. It might be SO COLD we'll have to turn the air-conditioner off and open some windows.

EVEN BEYOND: Appears this front is to be the first in a family of three. The next front on board (associated with the questionable next weekend event) will be just beyond the scope of whatever happens (or doesn't happen) next weekend. Then another after that several days beyond.

So far, the trend has been that with each passing front in the great beyond that the cooling affects of them becomes less and less pronounced with time, and/or shorter lived.

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Friday, October 20, 2017

"Potentially' Active Period Ahead - But Big Cool Down First

TODAY - SATURDAY: Continuation of the status quo in regard to wind as most all of North and Central dry out; moisture still ample for showers, some briefly on the heavier side parts of far South Central to South Florida. Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures, especially in regard to morning lows along the immediate coast where lows will be in the upper 70Fs along A1A, courtesy of the prevailing northeast winds which are common this time of year up through November. Elsewhere in the state, some 50Fs have already been realized across North Florida that past two mornings.

SUNDAY: High pressure  north of Florida over the Carolina's will lift out toward the ENE-NE as a Deep Layer upper level trough shifts east from the Central Plains states toward the east coast. As a result , flow (surface wind) will shift to more ESE-SE direction over Saturday night through Sunday. Flow that is more from the south will usher deeper moisture northward to Central Florida likely before sunrise Sunday morning. 

Net affect will be increased low level clouds and risk of rain showers up the coast working well inland , especially near and after day break as far north as Southern Volusia by sunrise. Showers, maybe even a convergence band or two (which results in locally heavier rainfall totals) 'might' set up, but better chance there will be apparent random showers working inland from the coast, possibly evolving to 'thunder' along the West Central side of the state later in the day. This moisture will continue west and north into evening and then an interlude of drying could begin heading into Monday

MONDAY: Warm with southeast wind with lower rain chance this day.  

First Cold Front of the 2017-2018 Season on the approach across the Mississippi River Valley Basin, with parent upper level well north up in Canada. Under any other circumstances such a synoptic set up would unlikely ever result in a frontal passage; however, a secondary mid-level low appears will form over Eastern Texas into Louisiana that will provide the extra impetus for the front to make the clean sweep across the state on Tuesday.  

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: Rain chances increase from Panhandle first then from north to south and west to east. Risk there might be a chance of severe weather but appears to be limited to mainly the Florida Panhandle, with a smaller risk as far south as I-4.  The best rain chances will be associated with a pre-frontal boundary (trough) ahead of the main front. It's affects might be realized on Monday or Monday night but since timing is still an issue simply put it in with Tuesday.

Per latest GFS, the frontal boundary itself is expected to be across Central to South Central (Melbourne - Sarasota line) sometime around 1pm Tuesday afternoon (give or take about 3 hours either way).   (see below). 

Image is showing 'dew point' temperatures. Lower dew points means drier air.

Behind the front, brisk NW wind to be expected. Cold air advection will not be 'truly realized' until perhaps near midnight Tuesday night and especially after 3AM Wednesday morning and beyond. Lows Wednesday east of US1 /South of I4 expected in the lower 60Fs (warmer far south) with interior temperatures running in the mid 50Fs (more or less) (colder North, warmest far South).  

Overall, Wednesday looks  breezy, dry, and somewhat cool , especially considering this will be the first time since last spring to see such 'low' dew points and highs not getting above what would normally be a morning low temperature. 

 Continued breezy all day into Wednesday night under clear skies (remember those?)

THURSDAY: Coolest morning so far of the 2017 -2018 Season state wide. GFS is pulling some mid-upper 50Fs out-of-the-hat all the way to The Barriers with lower to mid-50Fs interior (warmer further south). Chances are it will still be quite breezy this morning and might not get 'quite' as cold as shown over the Barriers due to how warm the surrounding waters are still, but it has happened in the past so could indeed be that 'cold'.  High in the lower 70Fs though, maybe even some mid-70Fs.

FRIDAY: Wind calming down a bit as wind veers more northerly. Along the immediate BARRIERS this will be the 'make-or break' day for morning lows.

 If wind can manage to amass an on-shore wind component over night, Friday will dawn 7-10 degrees warmer than Thursday will. 

Otherwise, another cool morning but with a very quick warm up. By afternoon we're totally 'out-of-the-woods' with this first cool 'outbreak' of  fall like weather.


Eyes on the skies, namely the ones over the Western Caribbean to far Southeast Gulf of Mexico. 

The Canadian Model for three runs in a row is showing a Tropical (Named) Storm System lifting northward across West Central Cuba to impact South/Central Florida by the NEXT WEEKEND ; whereas the GFS instead shows a general area of 'disturbed weather lifting north further to the east over the East/Central Gulf, as supposedly two weak separate surface low pressure areas to move across North and North Central Florida . ...resulting in perhaps severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall totals over a two day period. The "GFS Signal" looks very strange on paper at least with some of the wind fields being shown, so definitely bears a bit of scrutiny for watching, but with plenty of time to res-position any assumptions. In the end, who knows, maybe it will be all for naught and nothing will be waiting on the wings at all. For sure though if anything does 'come up'..the media will be all over it.

Either way, for now can't hurt to be watching the time frame in the Forecast Realm of Thursday - Saturday as a "heads up". 

In the interim, much cooler weather is on the way!

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Wednesday, October 4, 2017

"Conditional Risk" of Rain / Storm Event Thursday - Early Saturday

Area of Dune Line, Cape Canaveral, Post -IRMA
TODAY: Slowly increasing atmospheric moisture from South to North now in process (see image below). A 'pocket' of moisture (per morning Global Forecast System - GFS model) is crossing Central Florida late morning through early afternoon, producing some quick passing 'brisk showers' along with the already breezy conditions , particularly along the 'immediate beach side'.

These might well be coming to and 'or might not' later in the day. Regardless, the bigger 'potential' news lies ahead in the mid-range  later tonight toward early Thursday as inherit atmospheric moisture associated with an inverted short-wave trough (tropical wave) approaches the Florida East Coast.

Latest visible satellite loop 'appears' to show that perhaps a low pressure area is forming ESE of South Florida in association with this wave.  

That is of importance to realize in the forecast range, for if a low pressure area does manage to form, the risk of heavier rainfall and potentially some land-falling 'stronger storms' (perhaps waterspout potential) will increase. 

The inverted trough extending northward from any 'said low' (if it can form) would  operate as low-level convergence boundary  as the surface reflection passes from east to west across South Florida and the Florida Straits all day Thursday into early Friday in the midst of PWAT Air (Precipitable Water) over 2.0".

Greatest instability will lay across the east coast and near shore waters either way, mainly from Extreme Southern Volusia County southward , a contribution from warm Atlantic waters.

Animation earlier today shows the 'tidal wave' of moisture (per previous blog post) approaching from the east. The leading edge is reaching Brevard County even now, but the greater moisture per most model guidance is not to arrive in this area, and further north as well , until within an hour or so of sunrise Thursday morning.  This loop ends at 10:30AM, Wednesday morning.

This  image (below) is as of 12:30PM, EDT. The  'Deeper Moisture' is still off to the east and south of Central Florida and even Southeast Florida. In the below image one can see the focal area of red which is near where it appears per surface visible satellite animation that a surface low might be forming over eastern portions of the Florida Straits north of the coast of Cuba.

Given a number of 'significant uncertainties'...this  post will punctuate perhaps what might be a 'worst case' scenario . 

A phrase oft heard during the time of IRMA was, "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best'...chances are, whatever occurs will be somewhere in between. The two threats 'this blog' will mention as greatest relevance are 

1) Enhanced Flooding potential across areas already impacted by IRMA and the rain -event of several days ago;  and

 2) 'land-falling (tornadic) water-spout potential.

The second 'threat' is highly conditional; 
no forecast offices are referring to that chance as of this time. 

Just a heads up.

Of more immediate concern would be the 'flooding risk'. As of this hour the greatest risk appears to be for parts of Palm Beach, Martin, and St Lucie Counties southward in the 'rainfall arena' when all is said and done from beginning to end of 'said event'. 

Further north , the risk of 'waterspouts' might increase 
IF a surface low does in fact form.

In any case, most rains for at least most of Thursday will also be accompanied by stronger wind gusts at least initially. Wind direction will primarily be from the ENE-NE direction during this time period.

By Friday, wind will have weakened substantially as rains become  increasingly intermittent while the tropical waves moves on west away from the state. 

Elsewhere, chances are an Area of Investigation (INVEST) in the far SW Caribbean will develop into a NAMED system, 'Norm'. Current projections of said storm  imply this system will likely be too far to the west to impact the East Coast of Florida (going into early next week). That is to say, based on 'only current' projections.

 News stations and other outlets will be "Flooding the air waves" with more on this yet to be seen system in the next 24-72 hours as conditions develop.

Again, the blog will depict a worst case scenario, and there is a chance that some areas if not many will not see rainfall totals even half of what this graphic portrays. 

Any 'stronger wind associated with this upcoming 'event' will not be from a tropical storm, but rather pressure gradient wind between the low pressure over the Caribbean and a large high pressure area extending down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and well out into the Western Atlantic from of the Mid-Atlantic states region. 

In fact, wind tomorrow might actually be a bit 'weaker' than has been for the past 24 hours and  much of today.

No one location will necessarily experience anything close to what is shown 'might be the case' , below. 

The most likely impacted areas appear to be in the regions from Vero Beach southward. 

Additionally, 'the 'greatest impact box' (purple)
 might need to be shifted further south.

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Saturday, September 30, 2017

Risk of More Rainfall Over Swollen Tributaries Continues (Mainly North) Through Tuesday

TODAY: Latest radar animation out of Melbourne in combination with model guidance depictions  up to the mid-levels appear to support that a broad cyclonic circulation exists over Central Florida .  

This area might move a bit further north during the day as 'vorticity lobes' glide around it. The areas more likely to be in The Positive advection of that energy appears will be north of a line from Melbourne to Tampa Bay (in general).

There is a chance that some 'negative vorticity' advection will be on-going south of that line so that the risk of shower/storm coverage will be much lower in that area despite the presence of more than ample atmospheric moisture. 

At this point will only mention that all NWS Forecast Offices do see how problematic forecasting this 'messy situation' is that we have at hand today  going into Sunday.  It well could rain across the regions further south, but suspect that any rainfall there will be much more spotty in nature.

Counter-clockwise circulation 'appears' to be at play in the below radar animation from earlier this morning from Melbourne's WSR-88D radar, centered over Osceola County (up through 4AM).

For this post, will use the reasoning that an old frontal boundary that passed through the Northeast states and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast weakly extends southward from well off shore over the Atlantic and arching back south and west toward the Florida - Georgia Border. High pressure building in behind it from the north from Eastern Canada will breach well south toward this aforementioned boundary and in due time will extended its girth down the rest of the state, but that will not truly begin until around Monday and be especially 'noteworthy' in regard to the wind field as we go into Tuesday (winds increasing from the east to east-northeast).  

Hence, the period from Tuesday - Friday look much like what would typically be expected as 'fall weather' with temperatures having little more than a 10F degree diurnal variation, mainly ranging in the mid-upper 70Fs (lows) and lower-mid 80Fs (highs), depending on cloud coverage and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. The closer to the beach one is, the less the variation in temperature will be.

The net affect is that as the high pressure builds south so to will be what remains of the 'convergence source' (ie, the frontal boundary). This would enable rain-showers to continue to advect on shore in 'random' fashion for a time, until the boundary washes out and a period of dryer air works in .
GFS guidance numerically shows rain chances all next week, but in looking at several models I question whether the depth of moisture will be sufficient for rain every day. The days least likely to see rainfall would be Wednesday and at least part of Thursday (at least on a wide-spread basis). 

The GFS then has been consistent in showing a 'Tidal Wave' of moisture approaching form the east as accompanied with deep easterly flow.

Again, heading from Today through Tuesday expecting 'most rainfall concentrations' (but not all) to be focus across the Northern Portions of the state closer to the frontal boundary.

Heading toward the Friday time frame, as the wind decreases just a bit  there is a chance that an inverted trough would develop along the western side of the Gulf Stream which would act as convergence area for heftier showers to advect on shore the east coast, mainly during the over night through early morning hours, coincident with the presence of this 'TBD approaching moisture'.

Heading to beyond the end of the week into the following weekend...a plethora of 'tropical' solutions begins again to be introduced. 

Given that this is within the 10-Day window (even an 8 Day one) the tropics will again bear watching. Though at this stage a 'strong system' is not being advertised, the GFS is showing what looks like would be a tropical storm lifting northward across the state in some fashion, whereas the latest ECMWF has a system lifting north well east of the state. Other models  imply a smorgasbord of possible 'low pressure areas' both to the west and to the east of the state heading toward next weekend and/or into the beginning of the following week.

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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Large Rainfall Totals Late Friday - Monday Possible (Flood Potential Aware)

The NWS Service Offices - MLB & JAX To Be Watching The St John's River Valley Basin 
TODAY: Mainly sunny and pleasant North and Central Florida with chance of showers/thunder restricted to South Florida and parts of South Central.

FRIDAY: Guidance is coming into some 'form of agreement' to what is forthcoming in the period Friday- Monday, though surely this will change over the next 24 - 36 hours and as such all items expressed herein from this point out can be based only on what is being presented this morning, and are thus subject to change. 

Consult the National Weather Service for the latest information
 in regard to this upcoming potential situation.

In general, appears a broad area of low pressure will be forming somewhere over South Florida on Friday with a focus toward the east coast to somewhere between West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. It is unknown as to whether the surface  low which might form will head for the warm waters of Gulf Stream as a warm water source or remain closer to the coast. That first and foremost will greatly determine the amount of rainfall possible along the Florida east coast anywhere from Miami to the Cape initially in the upcoming 48 hours.  

The GFS model run of this morning focuses the mid level low right over the Cape  by midnight Friday night into Saturday morning (as an example)

So far, reliable guidance is agreeing regardless that the 'best chances of rainfall' in relation to this 'unfolding TBD drama' will be 'somewhere along the east coast' and 'east of the spine of the state' from JAX south toward the West Palm Beach area. For now will try not to be too specific.

In regard to 'wind', no strong wind is foreseen other than perhaps some gusty wind in the vicinity of any  thunderstorms that might occur, which is possible as well. The main concern as noted in the Subject Image (above) is rainfall due to  that the St John's River is already above Flood Stage , as could be read.   

Below is an image of where some of the heavier rainfall might occur over  a three day period coupled with the areas that are most impacted by the St John's River

Largest rainfall totals IF a low pressure area Remiains at the coast migh be largest from Volusia County and North
if a low remains on the coast. If the low stays out over the Gulf Stream instead, rainfall totals will be considerably lower

SATURDAY: Will say at this point only that if the GFS were to verify that Saturday might for the most part be 'deceptively' dry, even into Sunday for most areas other than across NE Florida.

Any low to form , even over the Gulf Stream might well be advected back to the coast across North Florida and then dampen out  westard as an 'open' wave as Stout High Pressure builds eastward behind a departing cold front across the Great Lakes region. This High Pressure region will span from much of Far Eastern Canada southward all the way to Florida and be met with conflict by a broad area of low pressure over much of the Western  Caribbean and into the the Eastern and Southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The net affect will be a period of prolonged, long fetch easterly winds extend up through the depths of the atmosphere.   (see below)

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Phase II of 'said' potential rain event commences as easterly flow extends from the surface up through 10,000. Brisk easterly wind generally in the 15 mph range gusting to around 25mph might be in place for several days if not all of next week. As the depth of the wind increases we could well dry out as the high PWAT (preciptable water) air is pushed off to the west of the state. But then another issue keeps developing on our paper Magic Eight Ball (The GFS model specifically in the 'Beyond' ).

Temperatures as a result will vary little with lows in the upper 70Fs to near 80F and highs in the mid 80Fs. A 'drying' out period might in fact commence heading into Wednesday but the winds will continue in 'fall like fashion'.

BEYOND: Heading toward the second week of October the GFS is once again up to it's shenanigans which really is fairly typical of the models this time of year -- have seen it before. Guidance can for over two weeks forecast a tropical storm or hurricane to form in the region of the Southern GOM or Western to Central Caribbean..and for all that time nothing actually ever forms worth mention.  This has happened in years past and could be the case this year as well.

Then again, something can form. Given the current projections, it appears that if something does form it wouldn't be to the caliber of the storms we've seen this year due to more than likely upper level wind shear. On the other hand,    'rain fall'  would still be big - bug-a-boo to be concerned about in light of the current situation.

Just to give an idea of how nuts the GFS model went in this morning's run..(and the previous one wasn't any more reasonable) we can see that it implies Three Tropical system simultaneously forming all at once. Highly unlikely.

(the first one ever...)

WRAP UP: In summary, tropical season isn't over yet for Florida in whatever form it might take be it wind or rain...but we'll be on the down swing heading toward week three and beyond.

Hurricane Season Lasts through November, though a search from a "Historical Perspective' as far as records are concerned back into the 1800s showed only two hurricanes   to hit Florida in November, Kate over the Panhandle in 1985, and an unnamed storm in 1935 that crossed South Florida only. Beyond that  there have been about 7 tropical storms (which can still produce tornadoes and/or flooding rains); granted , going back to 'as far as records go' isn't necessarily saying much when considering the big picture; but from a time-scale percentage aspect, it gives one a little perspective on the increasing 'rarity ' as we swim out of October - but first we basically the first three weeks of October to deal with.

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