"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, May 22, 2017

Chances of Eastern (Interior) Thunder - Even Rain at Coast (Late) Some Areas - Severe Possible Wednesday

TODAY: Upper level trough from the west is slowly approaching Florida (for some possible 'eventful weather Wednesday and/or Thursday' as surface ridge axis  which had been north of Central Florida begins to drop to Central and even South Central (weakly) late in the day.  Best overall atmospheric moisture is so far shown (and forecast) to be north of Lake Okeechobee today. Strongest 'west to east steering will be from near Melbourne and north though quite weak and not strong enough to overcome the east coast sea breeze from Brevard and South. 

The west coast sea breeze appears will be the dominate feature today and to press eastward the most and first across the northern third of the state. First activity overall for mid afternoon could initiate across NE Florida sending outflow southward and regenerating / propagating more activity southward with more activity along the east coast sea breeze presses down  I95 across Flagler / Volusia Counties and then back to the east more into Seminole/Osceola Counties late day along the east/west coast sea breeze collision. Some of this activity might be able to press off shore with thunder mainly north of the Cape but some shower activity with 'rumbles aloft' might make it to the beaches from MLB and north.

Further south and much later toward the 6-8PM time frame activity will be strongest west of I-95 (as it appears now) near Seminole/Osceola Counties and Central/Eastern Orange county as well (perhaps). Guidance differs on how far South true thunder along I95 will manage. The 4KM NAM shows storms as far south as St. Lucie County whereas the latest HRRR prefers Central into Osceola County as the southern most activity.  The HRRR was way off earlier today though and seems to be latching on to what the 4KM NAM is seeing (which on the other-hand might be over-done) which liked the idea of storms even further south.

Will compromise between the two as written / drawn (image) above. Elsewhere, sea breezes from both coasts accompanied by Lake Okeechobee Breeze convergence could manifest some thunder over the general Glades area as well.

TUESDAY: For now guidance implies even more favorable for thunderstorms up and down the east coast in regard to the wind parameters but lack of moisture might mean 'no dice' on storms Tuesday ;   might require revisiting this tomorrow to see if that is still the case.

WEDNESDAY: Highly unusual pattern aloft for Florida is in the making. Upper level trough in a position that looks more like winter (with a 100kt jet stream as well) with strong wind aloft over Florida and appears ample instability resulting in bulk shear sfc-500mb of about 40Kts with temps running around -8 to -10C could produce storms with strong wind / small hail. GFS implies it is possible the east coast sea breeze if it can form will remain pinned right at the coast and have little effect an adding an additional boost to the storms if they can manifest. 

Precedent cloud cover is going to be a problem for storms to form is the big fly in the ointment (suspect) especially south of I-4. The Storm Prediction Center has taken a broad brush on this day as a result of the synoptic scale situation placing  much of Florida in "Slight Risk" for severe category storms on Wednesday already.

THURSDAY: Timing big issue this day, but appears instability will be sufficient from Oak Hill (well south of I4) for a storm chance again from Brevard County and South as long as the surface trough axis associated with the upper level trough does not press too far south over night Wednesday and early Thursday. Wind aloft this day in the jet stream up to 100kts. Could be an 'early onset' day if storms get going this day..and will be interesting to see if it doesn't end up being 'the day after the day' that ends up being the 'most interesting' in regard to strong storms (particularly for parts of South Central/ South Florida). The Storm Prediction Center so far is not 'out-looking' this day.

BEYOND: Drying out a bit and so far the Memorial Day weekend looks warm and dry though Sunday especially from Central Brevard and South along the East Coast might begin to see shower activities. Too soon to say at this point and will work on that as later (and more accurate) model guesses come out during coming days ahead.

No comments:

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Dry with Near Record Highs Mid-Late Week

Arcus Shelf on the Leading Edge of a Thunderstorm Encroaches on Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Cool start to the day with near calm wind - pre-dawn temperatures running between lower 50Fs inland to 60F or just above closer to the ocean's edge in a few locations in the proximity of warmer ocean waters now running near 78F (at Port Canaveral for example). 

Otherwise, mainly clear today and warmer than yesterday (mainly inland). Coastal temperatures might run close to the same as yesterday once the sea breeze sets in , mainly lower 80Fs.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Little change to the overall scheme of things. Again, cool morning Monday rapidly warming within the first 90 minutes of sunrise, even more so after the 10AM hour toward noon. Again perhaps a bit warmer than today inland though . By Tuesday morning morning lows will also be moderating. Wind  remains light.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Implications being impressed by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are for highs in the lower-mid 90Fs, perhaps breaching the 95F mark in a few locations almost anywhere well inland. 

Whether these will be 'record breaking or near-so' cannot say, as do not have daily record data available. The record high for yesterday was 92F (set in 2006), and temperatures this mid-week appear will easily breach that mark. 

Coastal temperatures will   seasonably  be   mild in presence of the sea-breeze with highs more toward the mid-80Fs but perhaps upper 80Fs to near 90F if the sea breeze were for some reason have a late start. With sea-breezes both being active  and moisture gradually increasing we'll begin to see more cumuliform clouds as well.

Toss that Beat in the Garbage Can

NEXT WEEKEND: Next chance of rain or thunderstorms commences Saturday. The GFS is minimal on rainfall in association with the frontal boundary that would herald the rain chances , however, so bears watching. Suspect it will change in it's outlook once Tuesday or Wednesday rolls around. 

Otherwise, the rainy season usually enters into the picture anywhere from the last week of May to as late as the second week of June some time. Couldn't be soon enough, as parts of Central Florida interior are in a "Severe Drought".

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Thursday, May 4, 2017

Chance of Showers/Thunderstorms Late Today through Mid-Day Friday

Evening Storm Off Shore Cape Canaveral, Florida  - May 5, 2015

TODAY: Rather complex forecast in regard to timing of 'potential' rainfall periods and intensities thereof today from late afternoon toward early afternoon Friday. Will use this post to describe one of the possible  scenarios that at time is being implied will evolve across two particular models --the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

Current initial boundary producing rains and some lightning across Western Panhandle (see below image)  is advancing east. This boundary itself is not expected to have a 'direct' impact on peninsular Florida. 

During the day increasing SW Flow just above the surface should abet in propagating the west coast sea breeze well beyond the spine of the state while the east coast sea breeze runs more parallel to the coast with a much slower inland progression. 

Sea breeze convergence coupled with sufficient instability and slowly  increasing winds aloft coupled with seasonably cooler air aloft could set off a broken line of heavy rainstorms and/or thunderstorms up and down the east coast from near Daytona Beach and southward sometime after 5PM toward 7PM. Further west expect mainly showers along the leading edge of the west coast sea breeze , mainly near Rte 27 and eastward.

Some storms (near or east of I-95) might end up being on the 'strong side'  , mainly from Central Volusia southward due to the better chance of low level convergence/forcing along the sea breeze and less late afternoon cloud cover in those areas.

TONIGHT: Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will still be on the approach toward Central Florida prior to sunrise Friday. Timing on the boundary is still a bit sketchy though it will clear all of Central before mid-late afternoon .

Latest NAM guidance has been consistent on potential rains and even thunder to enter into the region south of I-4 near sunrise but then again, could be delayed toward noon time or so. The areas most likely to be impacted by this secondary boundary appear will be north of the Ft Pierce area and south of line running from Jacksonville toward Cedar Key on the west coast (see below).

 Again, there is the remote chance of stronger storms especially along the more northern areas (e.g., near to just north of I-4), but then again possibly toward Central as well if the boundary is delayed until late morning. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Either way, rain chances will end all areas from North to South - first by mid -morning , North..then late morning to early afternoon North Central to South Central heading toward mid-late afternoon. Clearing sky conditions systematically work in behind the end of the rainfall, but exactly when a good dose of sunshine will be the prevalent mode is uncertain.

 With these rains as noted thus will end the last chance of rain for the state for many days to come, at least for over a week to 10 days.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Clearing skies  on Saturday but much cooler with lows in the upper 50Fs to lower  60Fs ; highs in the 70Fs with a westerly wind. 

Sunday will start out also cool but warm to near normal in the afternoon with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior and closer to upper 70Fs close to the east coast as winds become more north to north-northeast and weaken.  

No comments:

Monday, May 1, 2017

True Shower Coverage -Even Thunder - Possible At Long Last

Canaveral Pea Fowl in the scrub
TODAY: At long last after such a dry April (other than a few random showers) we have a 'bona fide' chance for showers, even thunder possible on this first day of May 2017. Granted, no 'drought breakers' are foreseen this week but can't hurt. Only 'threat' might be if a random lightning strike were to hit on parched ground, resulting in brush fire.

Otherwise, increasing deep south to south west flow will import some greater moisture through the lower levels into the mid-atmospheric levels as the day wears on as a front approaches the Florida Panhandle. The greatest chance for thunder is across the panhandle where the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined a marginal risk for severe weather.  Not sure how well that will pan out at least for the day light hours given the cloud cover over the region at time. Better chance up that way appears to be after dark from near Tallahassee and east along the front itself.

Meanwhile, increasing south to south southwest flow in advance of the front over peninsular Florida..and moisture convergence with ample instability and cooler air aloft should be enough to set off some convergence lines of showers mainly across the east half of the state from Daytona and South as the east coast sea breeze attempts to manifest and press inland. A remote thunderstorm possible, with the better chance of thunder appearing to be for Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, and Palm Beach Counties later in the day, possibly even a stronger one or two.

TONIGHT: As front works south the rain chance might again increase , particularly for Brevard County after midnight and before sunrise. 

TUESDAY: Tuesday might dawn for areas of Brevard / Osceola/Indian River Counties (mainly) with rain showers in the area, though nothing particularly strong, if even thunder. Rain could be occurring in the area up through noon time before the boundary shifts further south. Best chance of shower/thunder going into Tuesday afternoon will again be  Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach Counties and southward to Dade.

WEDNESDAY: Easterly flow with little to no chance of rain much of anywhere but toward the west coast of the state.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Another front will approach the area with the better chances of rain it appears to be North half of State, with Central getting its dose on Friday - though will likely need to revisit these days as they get closer.

WEEKEND: Weekend looks dry both days and pleasant with temperatures near normal with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 80Fs southern interior. Continues to look dry for quite some time to come as well.

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Sunday, April 2, 2017

Need Rain Chances / Thunder Today - Stronger Storms Possible Monday (?)

'Morning Surveillance' - Great Blue Herons , Cocoa Beach, FL

TODAY: Increased moistening in the atmospheric profile coupled with instability and late afternoon sea breeze convergence could result in showers and some thunder (possibly an isolated stronger storm) mainly south of I-4 and west of line from Orlando south ).  

The general trend is for activity to start mainly across South Florida and work north and become a bit strong toward Eastern parts Polk county late in the day

Otherwise, highs in mid-upper 80Fs well inland with nearer to 90F parts of West Central and interior SW Florida --more toward the lower 80Fs near the east coast beaches where a solid east to southeast wind will prevail. More humid today all areas though, regardless.

MONDAY:   Overall surface wind and winds aloft overnight tonight into mid-day Monday veer more toward the SSE at the surface and from the southwest (aloft) as a complex , large and severe weather producing system (which will produce 'severe' in parts of the Deep South of Louisiana, Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas and Western Mississippi today) shifts eastward today and tonight.  Stronger storms could enter into the Western Florida panhandle this day. Otherwise -- 

Moisture and instability in place, and slightly veering wind profiles in place might be enough to introduce the remote potential for some stronger storms as noted in graphic below. Guidance at this time is split on the amount of coverage (if nearly any). Will run with sea breeze convergence coupled with instability and veering wind profiles aloft (though not especially strong) providing for the needed boast to watch for tomorrow with more details coming in all day today into earlier tomorrow anyway. For now, graphic below is a heads up for tomorrow for 'strong storms possible' as shown.

Any rainfall will be welcomed as much of the state is in a 'moderate drought' with a pocket of even worse conditions ("severe drought') across parts of West Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee.

TUESDAY: This day will again be warm with wide spread upper 80Fs and some lower 90Fs. So far guidance implies overall moisture for storm generation will be less available and as a result expecting a chance of a shower or maybe thunder north of I-4 with South Florida remaining dry. Afternoon sea breezes will prevent these warmer temperatures from being realized unless it holds off until after 2pm.

WEDNESDAY: Strong storms possible Panhandle region again and warming again into upper 80Fs and lower 90Fs. Better chances of showers Central appears to be after dark toward sunrise Thursday morning as a front goes through but storms not expected at this point.

Later Thursday into the weekend: Much cooler than what we've been seeing now for a while. Lows in 50Fs many areas to possibly some upper 40Fs northern interior. Highs only in the mid-upper 70Fs. Breezy northwest wind to accompany the cooler air as well especially Friday into Saturday morning. 

Dry weather prevails for quite sometime again, 
after any rainfall potentials  which may be in place Wednesday into early Thursday.

No comments:

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Showers Along East Coast After Midnight through At Least Noon Thursday

Can't Get Close Enough For a Front Row Seat at Sunrise
TODAY: Another dry and warm day with very little wind across most of Florida , but some changes appear to be on the way. A frontal boundary will drop south from the north into Central Florida from before through after sunset this evening   Wind will shift to north to northeast to East northeast over the following 12 hours bringing in deeper atmospheric moisture.

TONIGHT: It will be a good 6-9 hours post-fropa (frontal passage) before any rain shower chances (for the most part) enter the picture. Suspect most areas that will receive rain will be east of I-95 until a few hours after sunrise as a weak coastal trough might set up coupled with potentially more stabilized air mass during the overnight hours over the inland regions. 

The coast's proximity to warmer waters plus what 'might' be a weak coastal trough aiding in convergence could give rise to showers moving in. Temperatures aloft will be rather cold and steering from the NNW-N might limit inland extent of activity initially. Hard to say if we'll be hearing any thunder but suspect there will be some isolated instances. 

Overall, appears the majority of rainfall tomorrow will occur over the East half of the state at least until mid afternoon.

THURSDAY: Again, rain chances appear could commence 'here and there' mainly near Ormond Beach and south toward Vero Beach sometime after 2AM and might be in place well toward noon time to 2pm. Eventually working further south. Rains could mostly be over with by mid afternoon (if not sooner) but hard to say for certain. Showers or increasing cloud cover may well work across the state as well a few hours after sunrise.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Easterly flow and drying to occur north half of state by late afternoon and more of the state for Friday through Sunday. Morning lows in the mid-60Fs along the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs as wind will eventually decrease from 15mph gusting to 25mph (tomorrow into Friday) to around 10mph by Sunday. Partly cloudy to at times only a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

No comments:

Monday, March 13, 2017

Increasing Clouds/Rain Chances - Possible Strong - Severe Storm Late

Peacocks in the Tree Tops - Cape Canaveral Sunday Morning
TODAY: Second of two impulses (the weaker one yesterday) to cross the state near I-4 this evening. Latest guidance implies the potential for weak surface reflection of the disturbance to take the form of a fast moving but weak surface low associated with a developing frontal boundary.

Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover approaching all but far South Florida as of 10AM so areas in Central that are still seeing blue sky, the time will be drawing nigh for that to go away, maybe by the time this post is seen.

Otherwise, weak surface front pushed south yesterday but lifting back north will result  in more southerly wind going into the afternoon as opposed to the ENE wind earlier this morning. The next disturbance is still well west of the state but will be pressing quickly east late today and over night.

Latest 4KM NAM, NAM, and HRRR models all show a variety of 'potential situations' in regard to   severe weather. The HRRR is consistent with implying one or two rotating storms to cross near 'Dead Central ' or 25 miles either side of line from Tampa Bay to Canaveral sometime from late afternoon through toward the 9pm time frame.

Another shows something similar with one rotating storm coming in near Tampa Bay and peaking out near Kissimmee / St Cloud that rapidly weakens as it moves east toward Brevard.

Granted, such 'radar depictions' (and associated parameters) can't be trusted in regard to specifics, but that they show them at all bears watching. 

The NAM shows potent bulk shear values from 850mb through the 500mb level and even some bulk shear down to the lowest 2000 ft as a result of directional  and speed shear in the wind fields as one goes up in height.  Such shear values I'd think would warrant at least a 'heads up' mode and have shown so in the image below.

Instability, on the other hand, as typical for this time of year will be poor, and as a result the chance of severe is not great enough to warrant more than a marginal risk of severe for mainly west central Florida.

For Blog Purposes will include all of Central more or less just in case of a surprise pop up storm . Though even these wind fields are showing on the NAM they might be over done, but if not, the risk might well be warranted and a subsequent outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at noon or later today might show that potential as well. 

OTHERWISE: Outside of the chance of rain and maybe an isolated storm or two, the bigger story will be the 'return to January' come Wednesday/Thursday.  

TUESDAY: Front to clear Central around early to mid morning with NW winds of around 15mph or so. Cold air won't be on the way quite yet; this boundary will mainly dry the air out, freshen things up, and leave things comfortable until sunset approaches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Secondary boundary to surge through heralding even drying air and colder air as well. 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Quite breezy with winds 18G28 with lows in mid-upper 40Fs to maybe low 50Fs out on the Barrier Islands. Highs on Wednesday will be hard pressed to reach 60F north of I4 and might barely reach it even further south; though warmer the further south one goes. 

THURSDAY: Wind will weaken somewhat going into Thursday with temperatures well below normal all day. Highs to read the lower- mid 60Fs so nicer.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Progressively warmer each day, with light wind and no rain chances.

No comments:

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Rain/Thunder Chance Sunday - Tuesday : Winteresque Wednesday

White Egret / The Cove at Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Old frontal boundary that slid through last evening has lost steam across South Florida. Chance of a shower or two mainly far SW Florida today. Otherwise, light easterly wind today and sunny to partly cloudy with pleasant temperatures. Might see an increase in cloud cover near the east coast for East Central as satellite imagery does show the potential for more clouds to advect onshore (see image below).  

REMINDER: Daylight savings time begins at 2AM Sunday morning.

TONIGHT: Old boundary will be drawn back north in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the west. The boundary will act as a 'warm front' more or less and appears might lift back as far north as a Cedar Key - Ormond Beach line , though how far north it actually gets will be important in regard to how far north a 'thunder chance' will exist on Sunday. Will ride with that for now.

SUNDAY: Net affect of the lifting boundary will be for increasing moisture (from yesterday's and today's rather parched conditions) and increasing cloud cover going into mid afternoon. Surface based instability looks meager at best but for near the east coast, but cold air aloft will be present coupled with mid-upper level 'energy' (vorticity) in association with the first disturbance. Exactly when the effect of said disturbance will be realized (and there might be more than even two of them going into Tuesday) is hard to say, but for Central to Southern parts of Florida appears it could be as soon as noon to as late as 3-4PM. The later  the better chances of thunder chances. Either way, increasing cloud cover and at least rain chances increase later on Sunday but not for everyone.

MONDAY: Not all said and done just yet. Cold front still 36 hours away at least as yet another disturbance gets kicked by over-heard. This day might see much more cloud cover, and precipitation timing is much less certain though late morning to evening almost anytime is possible at this point. Again, chance of thunder. If better heating is realized this day, might see an isolated strong storm or two.

TUESDAY: yet again like Monday with still a rain chance for Central up to early afternoon or so. The latest guidance seems to imply a frontal passage sometime early evening or just before dark when much drier air and NW wind brings in a taste of early February to the air.

WEDNESDAY: Cool start with interior lows in the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to 50-54F beaches. Rather breezy NW wind dying down some toward sunset. Below normal afternoon highs - this time of year gets tricky as sometimes models under-estimate how warm it could get. GFS implies barely breaking 60F degrees this day, though numerical guidance has no problem with mid-upper 60Fs. Wouldn't be surprised however if was only see a 64F at best.

" Hey, Who Forgot to Close the Refrigerator Door ?!"

THURSDAY: Much cooler yet still with lows in mid-40Fs and upper 40Fs to near 52F beach side. Highs perhaps around 65F - 68F? (but at least the wind will not be an issue)

FRIDAY -INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Continued very cool mornings but at least the wind will be close to NIL or only very light by this time, even Thursday. Warming into the afternoons from lower 70Fs heading toward upper 70Fs by the end of the weekend. No rain foreseen at this rate for NEXT weekend.

No comments:

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Normal To Above Temperatures From Today into Next Week - Rain Chances Included

Bee on Aloe Stalk - This Day last year

TODAY : Wind becoming more southerly today, mainly ESE-SE and decreasing as we head toward sunset (most notably) and even more so heading toward midnight. East Central has a big 'cloud patch' over it as of mid-late morning (see below) but that might burn off or move out going into early afternoon. A few light showers shouldn't be much of an issue. Had a trace earlier at this location.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY : By Wednesday morning wind near calm or light all areas. Wind was light to calm in some regions of the state this morning but for the east coast. Much less wind all areas all day on these days and from there on out. A frontal boundary will work to North Florida in the morning and enter into Central Direct by later in the day. How far south it gets is still in question. The NAM model never gets it much further south than I-4 whereas the GFS, though it has backed off some as of the 1AM model run, continues to take the front down to the Big Lake region more or less after night fall. Exactly how far it gets will determine where rain chances will remain for Thursday.

For now will go with The NAM (North American Model) which I wouldn't normally due, but suspect the GFS might be latching on to the NAMs notions. That given, with cold air aloft and boundary undergoing frontolysis somewhere across Central coupled with rather cold air aloft, combined with sea breeze convergence with respectable heating of the day, might be able to squeeze up some thunder after all is said and done late in the day somewhere over the interior of Central or South Central depending on where the boundary collapses on Thursday, though more than likely only some showers (or increased cloud cover) would be the net effect. Instability is seriously lacking in any regard either day.

BEYOND: Going into weekend, even if the front does get to South Florida we recover our loses further north in the following 36 hours, and as a result warmer over the weekend with interior highs in the lower and maybe some mid-80Fs with upper 70Fs to near 80F closer to the mark at the immediate beaches. Standard far winds as they become southwest on Sunday ahead of the next front. Chance of sea breeze convergence showers might dwindle for the most part though we might still see some cloudiness as a result of the boundary with light showers possible.

NEXT WEEK: Precision is not the rule of the day yet in regard to when and where, but the trend has been for increasing rain chances as another frontal boundary attempts to make the swoop but can't really pull it off. The trend has been for the next front and the one thereafter several days later to lose steam somewhere across North to Central Florida but that is pure conjecture at this point. 

Just exactly where these boundaries find the frontal graveyard to be cannot be determined this far out. Either way, little chance in temperatures from the 'upward to normal trend' is foreseen, even out to around March 14th at least over the past few runs of the GFS. Noting however, that previous runs have showed even a boomerang back to early February like temperatures for a few days, but whether that will ever come into being is pure fantasy at this point in time.

No comments:

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Much Cooler and 'Briskly' On the Way Later Today

Paddling To the Light at Sunrise  Wednesday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold front on the way into North Central Florida at time (11:45AM). The Frontal Boundary is expected to be near a Cape Canaveral to  South Tampa Bay line sometime around 4:00- 4:30PM as it progresses further south. 

Temperatures in the lower (to possibly mid) 80Fs could see a drop of 12F - 17F post 'frontal passage' from the time of the front's passage to within an hour afterward. Thus, for example, temperature at 4pm of 81F might be a breezy 67F just a few hours later .   Some cloud cover to accompany the boundary and possible some showers though looks like any showers might be restricted to an around of near Vero Beach and south (in general but no exclusively )  

With frontal passage wind will also make an abrupt shift to NNW-N and evenutally NNE.

Better shower chances today south of the 'Green line"
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Though temperatures will drop into the 60Fs post -frontal passage, they won't drop that much more along the east coast from the Cape and South due to the rapid return of NE flow after dark this evening; yet will be rather 'briskly' gusting to around 20-25mph going into Friday with possibly still cloudy or partly cloudy sky at times especially up until late morning, Friday. 

Afterward, highs on Friday  mid-upper 60Fs near/north of I4 and near 70F from near Canaveral to Tampa and South -yet even warmer further south into the interior and toward the SW quadrant of the state.

SATURDAY: Wind to become more easterly with  lows in the morning lower 60Fs along the immediate east coast with mid-upper 50Fs elsewhere. There are pointers that suggest a slug of 'deeper' moisture and increased cloud cover, at least for a period of the day could move onshore accompanied by cloud cover and possibly some showers   in some locations. Highs again to remain cool, but cloud cover and any precipitation (or lack of it) could make a good 5F degree difference in how cool it might be at any given location.

SUNDAY: Wind begins to shift to ESE. Sunday will be the nicest day between late today through Saturday in the temperature plus wind  combined arena. Wind to die down a bit as highs return to seasonal norms but could still be considered 'breezy', especially at the beaches.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Even  warmer yet still as next front approaches. So far, indications are the next front will not be much different in regard to how temperatures will be affected from the one currently knocking on the I-4 Corridor's Door this hour. Mostly anticipate another quick wind shift with the front with little in the 'rain arean' to accompany the next front as well.

Thus, no 'sig temp drops' expected for the next 7-10 days. Though it does not look like we'll be seeing any record warmth either or even much of an 80F degree reading (at least not at the beaches) --  more like near to just above the norm especially in regard to the morning lows (not so much for the afternoon highs though)..with very little chances of rainfall, at least not predictably so other than possibly today and sometimes Saturday.

No comments:

Friday, February 24, 2017

Potential For Near Record Warm Min or Max Temperatures Next Week

"Jake" Near the Jetty Last Year This Date
FOLLOW UP: Up to record rainfall totals the other day. The area with the overall highest totals with the last 'rain event' ended up being the Brevard County area. A sampling of some rainfall totals can be seen below , accompanied by the radar estimates.

Melbourne Radar : Rainfall Storm Precipitation Totals
CoCoRHaS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network)Input by Participants around the state and accompanying rainfall total range reported
from a graphic perspective

Totals reported in by local participants in the CoCoRHaS program

TODAY : Mostly Sunny and pleasant with temperatures running above seasonal 'norms'. Light east wind in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: A bit warmer all areas as wind becomes south to southwest ahead of the next 'cool front' . Highs Saturday in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Front is on the way for the midnight hours for Central Florida.

SUNDAY: Front to pass through Central Florida around midnight. Wind to shift to NW -N and eventually NNE-NE by daybreak or within a few hours after day break providing modification (rising dew point temperatures) rather quickly post- frontal passage (fropa). Lows interior Sunday morning in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs with warmest temperatures from the Cape South (near 58-60F Canaveral to lower 70Fs South Florida). Sunday will see a a bit breezier at first from the ENE to E but decreasing wind later in the day with highs generally in the mid 70Fs (warmer south of Lake "O").

The front is expected to make it as far as South Florida before losing all identity.

MONDAY: High pressure well to the north will quickly move off the east coast and easterly flow will shift to southeast to south-southeast. Highs in the interior in lower 80Fs and closer to  upper 70Fs to near 80F near the coastline. Rainfree.

TUESDAY: Even warmer all areas Tuesday morning. Might see near record warm minimums this day and / or on Wednesday with interior temperatures into the lower end of the mid 80Fs. Rain free.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture ahead of next front with potential for 'near record' highs , though rather sketchy on that one as of now.  Looks like there might be an onset of more cloud cover to preclude that from occurring due to lower - mid level moisture convergence as the west coast sea breeze works over toward the east coast, with even a chance of showers south of Brevard Closer to the east coast.  

THURSDAY: Next front to go through with a repeat performance of the one to come overnight Saturday into Sunday but with even less impact in the temperatures. 

From NEXT Friday on out there is showing nothing but mainly light easterly flow with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs for several days on end. What occurs after that is too far out to say. Would watch for the remnant boundary to be lifted back north after several days, however, which 'might' result in another 'rain event' of sorts..or maybe not. Because it is so far out in time the guidance shifts around on what will occur about 5 days later (or so) and now we are nearly two weeks out and beyond forecast-ability (with any assured accuracy).

IN SUMMARY: The chances of another ' sig cool down' is starting to wane with every passing week now. Days are getting longer and before we know it Daylight Savings time will be at hand (March 12) . Not that that means anything. Good one or two 'dayers' of a cool down can still occur well through March and into early April but they are, for the most part,  short lived.

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Tuesday, February 21, 2017

High Rain Chance Wednesday Could be in The Making

Sparkling Seas Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy all day with light wind. Generally no rain except the Western to Central Panhandle where some showers and thunder could occur. 

TONIGHT: Complex upper level pattern with  a low at an anomalously low latitude (Eastern Gulf) to cross across parts of South Florida going into Wednesday late in the day. At least one if not two surface reflections of this low pressure area could form around the state, possibly along Southwest Florida coast and another somewhere over the Gulf Stream waters of the east coast south of the Cape. Temperatures aloft are to be quite cold which be a red flag alert for severe weather;  however, overall lapse rates and associated instability at the surface and lack of wind shear looks to result in minimal impact for what could have been a rather 'strong storm event' if a few factors had aligned differently. 

WEDNESDAY: Given the position of the low however, and the jet stream more or less even to the south of most of the state, the overall consensus at this time point to  mainly a rain event (for some areas) with thunder possible 'aloft' (in cloud-cloud to in-cloud lightning mainly).  There might be some small hail briefly of 'below severe size' should a strong storm be able to form but for the most part it looks mainly like   high rain chances beginning along the west coast  spreading to east and working from south to north by late morning. Some showers might be able to evolve before or near day break along the east coast south of the Cape and press ashore as well as a prelude to the day's orchestration. The prevailing wind direction most of the day will be from the ESE-SE- to eventually south whereas upper level steering mainly will be from the southwest for any stronger activity.

THURSDAY: Hard to say exactly when rain chances will end other than it looks like the higher end rain chances will end sometime before midnight (if not much sooner) with lingering activity always possible into mid-day Thursday. This part of the forecast is far less certain. But be advised

The NAM model indicates potential rainfall totals up to between 2-4" in very localized areas especially just in from the east coast from  Brevard County and south, likely due to a slightly warm air advection pattern at low levels coming in off the Gulf Stream waters resulting in some surface based instability. Suspect this is overdone though and might be able to cut those numbers in half. We'll be able to see what comes about though as this is a rather 'tight' situation to evolve  and bears watching for possibly 'flood watch criteria (somewhere)' should   a  locally energized pattern set up. 

Such events are very difficult to foresee in advance as it is and given the very unusual circumstances forthcoming in regard to the overall synoptic upper level pattern that is to evolve coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty with where any specific necessary dynamics will end up being located (  including potential training affects or rain storms repeatedly over any given area) only makes the rainfall total part of the forecast all the more difficult to put a finger on

In regard to temperatures it will mainly be cooler due to rainfall and cloud cover, but no 'cold front' will be blasting through once this system passes. No, temperatures will be much more pleasant Thursday with a cold front still to approach  but more so Friday and Saturday.

FRIDAY: This day looks rain free and rather nice as the low pressure assembly line moves out further east over the Atlantic. A cold front on the approach however for Saturday Night.

SATURDAY: If you want a nicer weekend day in regard to warm air, this would be the day. Highs in the lower to possibly mid 80Fs (inland) as front approaches from the northwest. Some clouds around but no rain is foreseen.

SUNDAY: Front to pass down the state overnight Saturday night. Sunday to be a good 10F degrees cooler for the most part than the day before but dry with light wind. Slowly modifying temperatures going toward Tuesday of next week with no cold blasts yet foreseen even in the far off land of the distant future . Looks like we might be 'good' from 'cold air' at least into the first week of March if not longer (at least in terms of how cold it has got this year, this upcoming cool spell will but take is to around seasonal norms for about two days).

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Monday, February 6, 2017

Remote Chance of Strong Storm/Near Record Highs - Tuesday/Wednesday

A Particularly Peculiar Situation  (PPS) Over Cocoa Beach Pier Friday Morning
TODAY: Gradual air mass modification continues with light easterly winds and not much in clouds. All in all a nicer day than yesterday - less cool and more comfortable for the natives on the beach.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, wind was to become  more southeast Monday evening to south and eventually SSW into late morning on Tuesday. This outlook is still on track.  Appears the east coast sea breeze will make an attempt to develop and press inland, but if so will make little progress if any. Chance of low cloud cover and/or fog in the morning but will rapidly burn out into mid-morning in areas where it might be able to form.

The bigger issue is the potential for showers and/or even a thunderstorm (possibly strong) to occur mainly east of the Orlando longitude and closer toward I-95 and east somewhere from East-Central Volusia south toward Indian River County. For now will target in on Brevard County as reference region.
Convergence near the east coast coupled with good low level lapse rates (localized upward forcing) in the presence of rather cold air aloft could make for a storm akin to a 'stronger type-summer storm' siutation coupled with a little help from wind aloft. All in all, if the tell-tale signs being advertised by the NAM bear merit, could call for small hail and maybe winds gusts near 50mph. 

Overall, the situation might be one of those Port St John to far southern Volusia County situations for a stronger storm. On the other hand, the NAM has a preponderance to over-hype which has been implying this chance. The other option might be for a broader range of rain showers and larger area of potential general thunder. Either way...

WEDNESDAY: Less chance of rain this day with continued southwest wind. This is the day that for now appears might approach 'near record highs' for the date. I do not know what the record high is for the various locations of East Central, but if guidance implies an 83-84F, chances are it could be even warmer especially from near Vero Beach and north toward Titusville.

THURSDAY: The front that was thought to come through by early this day is now slated for after sunset. Thus, another warm day with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs wiith a west to WNW wind in the 10-15 mph range during mid-afternoon, especially south of I-4 . There is a chance of seeing some rain immediately either during or after frontal passage late Thursday toward evening along the east coast, otherwise mainly only some cloud cover.  The front will come down almost straight from the north to be followed by rapid turn to NE and eventually ENE wind; as such, the East Coast will be spared  much in the cold air department with return flow off the Atlantic.

FRIDAY: Lows in the upper 50Fs to near 60F Brevard and south but cooler inland and even cooler yet still further north. Either way, nothing unusual.

BEYOND: Moderating temperatures to near normal values as another front will slide by perhaps late weekend, but won't go into this one for now. It appears whatever the next front will do will have even less affect than the previous one late Thursday with an even less chance of rain.

IN SUMMARY: Beyond next weekend it appears Central/South Florida is 'out of the woods' in the Cold Air Department up through Mid - February. 

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Saturday, February 4, 2017

Near Normal To Above Normal Temperature Tuesday - Wednesday

Saturday Shrimping off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: A 'frontal boundary' side-winding down the state with little fanfare other than some increased clouds from Brevard County line and north which might work south, but mostly noted by wind direction change and perhaps a shower near the east coast mainly from near Melbourne Beach and North. Radar is showing some showers off shore heading toward the coast (below image) but skeptical that they'll make it west of the western edge of the Gulf Stream waters offhore to our east without collapsing over the cooler immediate coastal shelf waters. But who's to say. In any-case, could see a few more clouds as the day wears on  , and even if the rain showers themselves do not make it to the coast proper, still might experience an uptick in the wind from Northeast direction sometime after the 2-3:30pm time frame.  

SUNDAY: Though some cloud cover might persist early morning mainly north half of state the overall 'non-event' will be also non-effectual in regard to impact to activities and temperature . Sunday might be a bit cooler than today though overall, but close to normal. If there is to be any showers, they'd be gone by noon. Sunday won't be quite as warm as today at the beaches however. and a weak coastal trough will close slightly and move off north and east, bring northerly wind down it's back side on the way out..though mainly only for Sunday through mid-day Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind gradually to swing around to east then southeast Monday into Monday night and become more south to southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like these days will see highs in the lower 80Fs inland, and maybe some middle 80Fs here and there but remain dry.

THURSDAY: Next front to come through, and for now looks like it will pass through dry south of I4 but could easily change.

BEYOND: So far nothing too unusual  is showing up on the long range to beyond in regard to temperature 'EXTREMES"...not to say it couldn't quite 'cold' again in the next two weeks, but so far that does not appear will be the case for any more than about 36 hours. 

No severe weather in the next week. By around next Saturday is where some pretty big inconsistencies come into play in regard to the GFS vs. The Climate Model in how to handle an upper trough to build down the U.S. East Coast. The GFS almost tries to pinch off a low near Florida, while other models do not. Either way..  other than today (and the chance is very slim) and maybe around next Thursday or will be dry, normal temperatures ingeneral.. and relatively uneventful. Plenty of front rows seats available, but no show.

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Saturday, January 28, 2017

Cold, Wet Sunday - Extended Stay through Wednesday ...Storms in February?

Last year Near This Date

TODAY: Rather cool with decreasing sun and increasing clouds. Abundant cloud cover harvested over the Gulf in association with an upper level disturbance to graze across Florida early Sunday through late afternoon .  Temperatures rather cool though some sunny breaks always possible now and then through sunset to add a step to the day and some warmth, but not in all areas. South to Central will fair the best for today in regard to sun and warmer.

OVERNIGHT-SUNDAY:  Guidance very consistent for several days now on a chance of rain with cold air aloft to drag some of that down to the surface. Latest NAM and not quite so much the GFS models show highs in the low end of the mid 50Fs possibly cooler toward the 48F-50F range where cloud cover and/or rain might fall. 

Rain will generally work from west to east reaching east locations of North Central and Central sometime after 2AM - 5AM. Rain chances and or cloud cover continues until early afternoon Central, and later down to South Florida. Highs again well below climatological norms. Guessing for Central it will end from west to east from late morning and moving off the east coast around the 1PM time frame though clouds might persist until dark. South Florida the rain will be in place possibly until dark-time.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind to pick up a bit from the NW by Monday  but and begin to decrease into Tuesday. So far, appears skies not an issue but watching for high cirrus clouds to be problematic. So will see on that one. Morning lows not showing anything too unusual (mainly mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast and south); it's the afternoon highs that stay well below par for the course, barely reaching 60F on Monday and lower to mid 60Fs Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Back to normal, pleasant and continued dry with light wind.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Next weekend looks to be everything this weekend won't be.

BEYOND: Entering into February, the leaves begin to turn in due time.  GFS off and on and more so the CFSV2 long range climate model is showing 1, 2, now 3 'potential 'weather events' spaced from 7 -10 days apart from each other during the month. However, there is no consistency in the signal thus far, and will change on a daily basis. Whether more severe weather events will be on the way cannot be stated with any certainty; however, February has been known historically to be a big month for severe weather in Florida going into Mid- March (though not every year obviously).

All in all, looks like this upcoming 'cold weather outbreak' will be our true real taste of winter's extended stay...out much beyond mid February though it can get cold again, and does...the cold events begin to get shorter in length, and more spaced apart.

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Saturday, January 21, 2017

Enhanced Risk of Severe Potential Remains Real Late Sunday

Uprooted Tree Remains Post-Matthew from October - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Warmer and a bit muggier today as advertised with developing S-SW wind this afternoon. High in the lower 80Fs mostly though some areas might see a mid-80F. Any rain/storms would remain north of I-4. 

Meanwhile. the first severe weather threat period moves in across the Panhandle region mainly from Tallahassee and west. A few tornado warnings are already on the horn further west .

Radar simulations from the HRRR model  indicate the chance for a high end tornado near Pensacola toward Panama City area of possible EF3 strength. (that  is only a forecast, but the 'threat' is real), but that is from only one run (which is done hourly) from one short term model. On the other hand, other guidance is not nearly as menacing. Regardless, an enhanced severe threat remains with the activity projected to impact that area late morning hours toward noon time.

SUNDAY: Nice start to the day with increasing SW. The next episode of severe enters the picture first again toward the Panhandle sometime late morning, possibly a bit further east than round one, which then continues to press east and expand southward along what appears would be a bit of a broken, QLCS squall line.

As being noted in varying models, timing remains an issue as to when North Central to Central Direct will be impacted. There appears to be agreement though, that some kind of a squall line type formation will develop early to mid afternoon from near JAX SSW to west of Tampa which will then strengthen and expand southward into near sunset; however, not all focus should be on the line if it were to develop. 

Some guidance also indicates discrete , isolated storm cells forming acorss 'anywhere' Central Florida after 4pm toward dark and moving off the east coast. Though small and quick moving if so, such activity in the given situation can produce a quick tornado and//or strong wind gusts.

As anticipated a low level jet coupled with a 500mb (as opposed to 300mb) jet streak well aloft (500mb is lower in the atmosphere) along with a little bit of directional shear will result in bulk shear (speed shear plus directional shear) which would abet in resultant rapid updraft formation. There will be sufficient instability from day time heating coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60Fs (moisture) to add to the mix. These factors along with low level helicity values in the 200/300 m2/sec2, which is like a cork screwing horizontal wind field racing parallel to the ground will lay down the framework for the Tornado Threat Welcome Mat  ....   as has not been seen in this area for quite a while in regard to potentiality. 

Given the important relevance of this upcoming 'situation' have refrained from making a personal map of where activity might occur and left it up to what is readily available. "IF" I had made a note it 'will mention' that just because areas south of the red hatched (see below) are not in there, the risk for tornado threat remains all the way down the state. Those areas are almost guaranteed any mode of weather will occur during the overnight hours, especially south of Vero Beach.

The Storm Prediction Center has place all of North Central in a 
HATCHED ENHANCED RISK which means a 10% greater risk
 for a significant severe weather event anywhere within 25 NM 
of any given point.

 Enhanced includes EF2 (or higher) tornado strength, straight line winds of 74 mph or greater, or large hail. The greatest threat (in the bloggers opinion only) appears would be wind as noted in previous post up to almost 90MPH , though said wind would be extremely isolated, and/or a tornado. 

Some models (the ones that include this parameter) show 'updraft helicity swats  ' which indicate a rotating updraft (of supercell thunderstorm nature). 
Will not include in the post as those are only a general indication and change , sometimes significantly, in both intensity of the activity as well as location from run to run.

As such, this means that the 4KM - NAM model , for instance, has consistently indicated a few 'particularly nasty storms' based on that parameter alone from near Orlando/Canaveral in general and further north, with the strongest activity north of a line from Brooksville toward Ormond Beach. 

Threat period from far North Central southward toward the Vero Beach area best guess runs from around 3PM (north) to after 10PM (Vero Beach). Some areas as inferred earlier might see activity more than once if activity begins to erupt ahead of the prefrontal broken line, which would be prior to dark. Suspect that the actual organized area, for example, will reach a line from near Titusville toward Sarasota between 8:30pm - 10:00pm but it could be sooner. Other pre-line activity would be prior to or even during sunset time frame.

This does look more now like a 'live coverage' 
situation for local TV Channel networks.

BEYOND: Monday will be breezy with westerly wind, some cloud cover and cooler with the coldest air to arrive Tuesday through Wednesday morning as wind begins to decrease.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Rapid turn around Wednesday. Very cool in the morning (upper 40Fs inland to lower-mid 50Fs near coast) with a southerly flow develop late morning , sending highs into the upper 70Fs to near 80F in the afternoon as the next front approaches.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD: The GFS and the CFSV2 are trending on more of a prolonged cool down period, as in, " WINTER PHASE II  "

 Not only cooler, but a few episodes of 'much cooler'. 

For just how long it will go on is questionable and the entire period (into mid-February) would not be cool to cold constantly. Regardless, winter isn't over yet.  The GFS has hinted on a few runs of near freezing to freezing temperatures south of Orlando but mostly indicates mid-upper 30F in the colder areas if such a situation were to develop. This is all well out of range of foreast accuracy anyway, only to say, 'don't be surprised' if local forecasts begin to allude to more chilly weather on tap. 

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