"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Need Rain Chances / Thunder Today - Stronger Storms Possible Monday (?)

'Morning Surveillance' - Great Blue Herons , Cocoa Beach, FL

TODAY: Increased moistening in the atmospheric profile coupled with instability and late afternoon sea breeze convergence could result in showers and some thunder (possibly an isolated stronger storm) mainly south of I-4 and west of line from Orlando south ).  

The general trend is for activity to start mainly across South Florida and work north and become a bit strong toward Eastern parts Polk county late in the day

Otherwise, highs in mid-upper 80Fs well inland with nearer to 90F parts of West Central and interior SW Florida --more toward the lower 80Fs near the east coast beaches where a solid east to southeast wind will prevail. More humid today all areas though, regardless.

MONDAY:   Overall surface wind and winds aloft overnight tonight into mid-day Monday veer more toward the SSE at the surface and from the southwest (aloft) as a complex , large and severe weather producing system (which will produce 'severe' in parts of the Deep South of Louisiana, Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas and Western Mississippi today) shifts eastward today and tonight.  Stronger storms could enter into the Western Florida panhandle this day. Otherwise -- 

Moisture and instability in place, and slightly veering wind profiles in place might be enough to introduce the remote potential for some stronger storms as noted in graphic below. Guidance at this time is split on the amount of coverage (if nearly any). Will run with sea breeze convergence coupled with instability and veering wind profiles aloft (though not especially strong) providing for the needed boast to watch for tomorrow with more details coming in all day today into earlier tomorrow anyway. For now, graphic below is a heads up for tomorrow for 'strong storms possible' as shown.

Any rainfall will be welcomed as much of the state is in a 'moderate drought' with a pocket of even worse conditions ("severe drought') across parts of West Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee.

TUESDAY: This day will again be warm with wide spread upper 80Fs and some lower 90Fs. So far guidance implies overall moisture for storm generation will be less available and as a result expecting a chance of a shower or maybe thunder north of I-4 with South Florida remaining dry. Afternoon sea breezes will prevent these warmer temperatures from being realized unless it holds off until after 2pm.

WEDNESDAY: Strong storms possible Panhandle region again and warming again into upper 80Fs and lower 90Fs. Better chances of showers Central appears to be after dark toward sunrise Thursday morning as a front goes through but storms not expected at this point.

Later Thursday into the weekend: Much cooler than what we've been seeing now for a while. Lows in 50Fs many areas to possibly some upper 40Fs northern interior. Highs only in the mid-upper 70Fs. Breezy northwest wind to accompany the cooler air as well especially Friday into Saturday morning. 

Dry weather prevails for quite sometime again, 
after any rainfall potentials  which may be in place Wednesday into early Thursday.

No comments:

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Showers Along East Coast After Midnight through At Least Noon Thursday

Can't Get Close Enough For a Front Row Seat at Sunrise
TODAY: Another dry and warm day with very little wind across most of Florida , but some changes appear to be on the way. A frontal boundary will drop south from the north into Central Florida from before through after sunset this evening   Wind will shift to north to northeast to East northeast over the following 12 hours bringing in deeper atmospheric moisture.

TONIGHT: It will be a good 6-9 hours post-fropa (frontal passage) before any rain shower chances (for the most part) enter the picture. Suspect most areas that will receive rain will be east of I-95 until a few hours after sunrise as a weak coastal trough might set up coupled with potentially more stabilized air mass during the overnight hours over the inland regions. 

The coast's proximity to warmer waters plus what 'might' be a weak coastal trough aiding in convergence could give rise to showers moving in. Temperatures aloft will be rather cold and steering from the NNW-N might limit inland extent of activity initially. Hard to say if we'll be hearing any thunder but suspect there will be some isolated instances. 

Overall, appears the majority of rainfall tomorrow will occur over the East half of the state at least until mid afternoon.

THURSDAY: Again, rain chances appear could commence 'here and there' mainly near Ormond Beach and south toward Vero Beach sometime after 2AM and might be in place well toward noon time to 2pm. Eventually working further south. Rains could mostly be over with by mid afternoon (if not sooner) but hard to say for certain. Showers or increasing cloud cover may well work across the state as well a few hours after sunrise.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Easterly flow and drying to occur north half of state by late afternoon and more of the state for Friday through Sunday. Morning lows in the mid-60Fs along the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs as wind will eventually decrease from 15mph gusting to 25mph (tomorrow into Friday) to around 10mph by Sunday. Partly cloudy to at times only a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

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Monday, March 13, 2017

Increasing Clouds/Rain Chances - Possible Strong - Severe Storm Late

Peacocks in the Tree Tops - Cape Canaveral Sunday Morning
TODAY: Second of two impulses (the weaker one yesterday) to cross the state near I-4 this evening. Latest guidance implies the potential for weak surface reflection of the disturbance to take the form of a fast moving but weak surface low associated with a developing frontal boundary.

Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover approaching all but far South Florida as of 10AM so areas in Central that are still seeing blue sky, the time will be drawing nigh for that to go away, maybe by the time this post is seen.

Otherwise, weak surface front pushed south yesterday but lifting back north will result  in more southerly wind going into the afternoon as opposed to the ENE wind earlier this morning. The next disturbance is still well west of the state but will be pressing quickly east late today and over night.

Latest 4KM NAM, NAM, and HRRR models all show a variety of 'potential situations' in regard to   severe weather. The HRRR is consistent with implying one or two rotating storms to cross near 'Dead Central ' or 25 miles either side of line from Tampa Bay to Canaveral sometime from late afternoon through toward the 9pm time frame.

Another shows something similar with one rotating storm coming in near Tampa Bay and peaking out near Kissimmee / St Cloud that rapidly weakens as it moves east toward Brevard.

Granted, such 'radar depictions' (and associated parameters) can't be trusted in regard to specifics, but that they show them at all bears watching. 

The NAM shows potent bulk shear values from 850mb through the 500mb level and even some bulk shear down to the lowest 2000 ft as a result of directional  and speed shear in the wind fields as one goes up in height.  Such shear values I'd think would warrant at least a 'heads up' mode and have shown so in the image below.

Instability, on the other hand, as typical for this time of year will be poor, and as a result the chance of severe is not great enough to warrant more than a marginal risk of severe for mainly west central Florida.

For Blog Purposes will include all of Central more or less just in case of a surprise pop up storm . Though even these wind fields are showing on the NAM they might be over done, but if not, the risk might well be warranted and a subsequent outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at noon or later today might show that potential as well. 

OTHERWISE: Outside of the chance of rain and maybe an isolated storm or two, the bigger story will be the 'return to January' come Wednesday/Thursday.  

TUESDAY: Front to clear Central around early to mid morning with NW winds of around 15mph or so. Cold air won't be on the way quite yet; this boundary will mainly dry the air out, freshen things up, and leave things comfortable until sunset approaches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Secondary boundary to surge through heralding even drying air and colder air as well. 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Quite breezy with winds 18G28 with lows in mid-upper 40Fs to maybe low 50Fs out on the Barrier Islands. Highs on Wednesday will be hard pressed to reach 60F north of I4 and might barely reach it even further south; though warmer the further south one goes. 

THURSDAY: Wind will weaken somewhat going into Thursday with temperatures well below normal all day. Highs to read the lower- mid 60Fs so nicer.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Progressively warmer each day, with light wind and no rain chances.

No comments:

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Rain/Thunder Chance Sunday - Tuesday : Winteresque Wednesday

White Egret / The Cove at Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Old frontal boundary that slid through last evening has lost steam across South Florida. Chance of a shower or two mainly far SW Florida today. Otherwise, light easterly wind today and sunny to partly cloudy with pleasant temperatures. Might see an increase in cloud cover near the east coast for East Central as satellite imagery does show the potential for more clouds to advect onshore (see image below).  

REMINDER: Daylight savings time begins at 2AM Sunday morning.

TONIGHT: Old boundary will be drawn back north in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the west. The boundary will act as a 'warm front' more or less and appears might lift back as far north as a Cedar Key - Ormond Beach line , though how far north it actually gets will be important in regard to how far north a 'thunder chance' will exist on Sunday. Will ride with that for now.

SUNDAY: Net affect of the lifting boundary will be for increasing moisture (from yesterday's and today's rather parched conditions) and increasing cloud cover going into mid afternoon. Surface based instability looks meager at best but for near the east coast, but cold air aloft will be present coupled with mid-upper level 'energy' (vorticity) in association with the first disturbance. Exactly when the effect of said disturbance will be realized (and there might be more than even two of them going into Tuesday) is hard to say, but for Central to Southern parts of Florida appears it could be as soon as noon to as late as 3-4PM. The later  the better chances of thunder chances. Either way, increasing cloud cover and at least rain chances increase later on Sunday but not for everyone.

MONDAY: Not all said and done just yet. Cold front still 36 hours away at least as yet another disturbance gets kicked by over-heard. This day might see much more cloud cover, and precipitation timing is much less certain though late morning to evening almost anytime is possible at this point. Again, chance of thunder. If better heating is realized this day, might see an isolated strong storm or two.

TUESDAY: yet again like Monday with still a rain chance for Central up to early afternoon or so. The latest guidance seems to imply a frontal passage sometime early evening or just before dark when much drier air and NW wind brings in a taste of early February to the air.

WEDNESDAY: Cool start with interior lows in the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to 50-54F beaches. Rather breezy NW wind dying down some toward sunset. Below normal afternoon highs - this time of year gets tricky as sometimes models under-estimate how warm it could get. GFS implies barely breaking 60F degrees this day, though numerical guidance has no problem with mid-upper 60Fs. Wouldn't be surprised however if was only see a 64F at best.

" Hey, Who Forgot to Close the Refrigerator Door ?!"

THURSDAY: Much cooler yet still with lows in mid-40Fs and upper 40Fs to near 52F beach side. Highs perhaps around 65F - 68F? (but at least the wind will not be an issue)

FRIDAY -INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Continued very cool mornings but at least the wind will be close to NIL or only very light by this time, even Thursday. Warming into the afternoons from lower 70Fs heading toward upper 70Fs by the end of the weekend. No rain foreseen at this rate for NEXT weekend.

No comments:

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Normal To Above Temperatures From Today into Next Week - Rain Chances Included

Bee on Aloe Stalk - This Day last year

TODAY : Wind becoming more southerly today, mainly ESE-SE and decreasing as we head toward sunset (most notably) and even more so heading toward midnight. East Central has a big 'cloud patch' over it as of mid-late morning (see below) but that might burn off or move out going into early afternoon. A few light showers shouldn't be much of an issue. Had a trace earlier at this location.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY : By Wednesday morning wind near calm or light all areas. Wind was light to calm in some regions of the state this morning but for the east coast. Much less wind all areas all day on these days and from there on out. A frontal boundary will work to North Florida in the morning and enter into Central Direct by later in the day. How far south it gets is still in question. The NAM model never gets it much further south than I-4 whereas the GFS, though it has backed off some as of the 1AM model run, continues to take the front down to the Big Lake region more or less after night fall. Exactly how far it gets will determine where rain chances will remain for Thursday.

For now will go with The NAM (North American Model) which I wouldn't normally due, but suspect the GFS might be latching on to the NAMs notions. That given, with cold air aloft and boundary undergoing frontolysis somewhere across Central coupled with rather cold air aloft, combined with sea breeze convergence with respectable heating of the day, might be able to squeeze up some thunder after all is said and done late in the day somewhere over the interior of Central or South Central depending on where the boundary collapses on Thursday, though more than likely only some showers (or increased cloud cover) would be the net effect. Instability is seriously lacking in any regard either day.

BEYOND: Going into weekend, even if the front does get to South Florida we recover our loses further north in the following 36 hours, and as a result warmer over the weekend with interior highs in the lower and maybe some mid-80Fs with upper 70Fs to near 80F closer to the mark at the immediate beaches. Standard far winds as they become southwest on Sunday ahead of the next front. Chance of sea breeze convergence showers might dwindle for the most part though we might still see some cloudiness as a result of the boundary with light showers possible.

NEXT WEEK: Precision is not the rule of the day yet in regard to when and where, but the trend has been for increasing rain chances as another frontal boundary attempts to make the swoop but can't really pull it off. The trend has been for the next front and the one thereafter several days later to lose steam somewhere across North to Central Florida but that is pure conjecture at this point. 

Just exactly where these boundaries find the frontal graveyard to be cannot be determined this far out. Either way, little chance in temperatures from the 'upward to normal trend' is foreseen, even out to around March 14th at least over the past few runs of the GFS. Noting however, that previous runs have showed even a boomerang back to early February like temperatures for a few days, but whether that will ever come into being is pure fantasy at this point in time.

No comments:

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Much Cooler and 'Briskly' On the Way Later Today

Paddling To the Light at Sunrise  Wednesday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold front on the way into North Central Florida at time (11:45AM). The Frontal Boundary is expected to be near a Cape Canaveral to  South Tampa Bay line sometime around 4:00- 4:30PM as it progresses further south. 

Temperatures in the lower (to possibly mid) 80Fs could see a drop of 12F - 17F post 'frontal passage' from the time of the front's passage to within an hour afterward. Thus, for example, temperature at 4pm of 81F might be a breezy 67F just a few hours later .   Some cloud cover to accompany the boundary and possible some showers though looks like any showers might be restricted to an around of near Vero Beach and south (in general but no exclusively )  

With frontal passage wind will also make an abrupt shift to NNW-N and evenutally NNE.

Better shower chances today south of the 'Green line"
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Though temperatures will drop into the 60Fs post -frontal passage, they won't drop that much more along the east coast from the Cape and South due to the rapid return of NE flow after dark this evening; yet will be rather 'briskly' gusting to around 20-25mph going into Friday with possibly still cloudy or partly cloudy sky at times especially up until late morning, Friday. 

Afterward, highs on Friday  mid-upper 60Fs near/north of I4 and near 70F from near Canaveral to Tampa and South -yet even warmer further south into the interior and toward the SW quadrant of the state.

SATURDAY: Wind to become more easterly with  lows in the morning lower 60Fs along the immediate east coast with mid-upper 50Fs elsewhere. There are pointers that suggest a slug of 'deeper' moisture and increased cloud cover, at least for a period of the day could move onshore accompanied by cloud cover and possibly some showers   in some locations. Highs again to remain cool, but cloud cover and any precipitation (or lack of it) could make a good 5F degree difference in how cool it might be at any given location.

SUNDAY: Wind begins to shift to ESE. Sunday will be the nicest day between late today through Saturday in the temperature plus wind  combined arena. Wind to die down a bit as highs return to seasonal norms but could still be considered 'breezy', especially at the beaches.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Even  warmer yet still as next front approaches. So far, indications are the next front will not be much different in regard to how temperatures will be affected from the one currently knocking on the I-4 Corridor's Door this hour. Mostly anticipate another quick wind shift with the front with little in the 'rain arean' to accompany the next front as well.

Thus, no 'sig temp drops' expected for the next 7-10 days. Though it does not look like we'll be seeing any record warmth either or even much of an 80F degree reading (at least not at the beaches) --  more like near to just above the norm especially in regard to the morning lows (not so much for the afternoon highs though)..with very little chances of rainfall, at least not predictably so other than possibly today and sometimes Saturday.

No comments:

Friday, February 24, 2017

Potential For Near Record Warm Min or Max Temperatures Next Week

"Jake" Near the Jetty Last Year This Date
FOLLOW UP: Up to record rainfall totals the other day. The area with the overall highest totals with the last 'rain event' ended up being the Brevard County area. A sampling of some rainfall totals can be seen below , accompanied by the radar estimates.

Melbourne Radar : Rainfall Storm Precipitation Totals
CoCoRHaS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network)Input by Participants around the state and accompanying rainfall total range reported
from a graphic perspective

Totals reported in by local participants in the CoCoRHaS program

TODAY : Mostly Sunny and pleasant with temperatures running above seasonal 'norms'. Light east wind in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: A bit warmer all areas as wind becomes south to southwest ahead of the next 'cool front' . Highs Saturday in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Front is on the way for the midnight hours for Central Florida.

SUNDAY: Front to pass through Central Florida around midnight. Wind to shift to NW -N and eventually NNE-NE by daybreak or within a few hours after day break providing modification (rising dew point temperatures) rather quickly post- frontal passage (fropa). Lows interior Sunday morning in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs with warmest temperatures from the Cape South (near 58-60F Canaveral to lower 70Fs South Florida). Sunday will see a a bit breezier at first from the ENE to E but decreasing wind later in the day with highs generally in the mid 70Fs (warmer south of Lake "O").

The front is expected to make it as far as South Florida before losing all identity.

MONDAY: High pressure well to the north will quickly move off the east coast and easterly flow will shift to southeast to south-southeast. Highs in the interior in lower 80Fs and closer to  upper 70Fs to near 80F near the coastline. Rainfree.

TUESDAY: Even warmer all areas Tuesday morning. Might see near record warm minimums this day and / or on Wednesday with interior temperatures into the lower end of the mid 80Fs. Rain free.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture ahead of next front with potential for 'near record' highs , though rather sketchy on that one as of now.  Looks like there might be an onset of more cloud cover to preclude that from occurring due to lower - mid level moisture convergence as the west coast sea breeze works over toward the east coast, with even a chance of showers south of Brevard Closer to the east coast.  

THURSDAY: Next front to go through with a repeat performance of the one to come overnight Saturday into Sunday but with even less impact in the temperatures. 

From NEXT Friday on out there is showing nothing but mainly light easterly flow with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs for several days on end. What occurs after that is too far out to say. Would watch for the remnant boundary to be lifted back north after several days, however, which 'might' result in another 'rain event' of sorts..or maybe not. Because it is so far out in time the guidance shifts around on what will occur about 5 days later (or so) and now we are nearly two weeks out and beyond forecast-ability (with any assured accuracy).

IN SUMMARY: The chances of another ' sig cool down' is starting to wane with every passing week now. Days are getting longer and before we know it Daylight Savings time will be at hand (March 12) . Not that that means anything. Good one or two 'dayers' of a cool down can still occur well through March and into early April but they are, for the most part,  short lived.

No comments:

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

High Rain Chance Wednesday Could be in The Making

Sparkling Seas Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy all day with light wind. Generally no rain except the Western to Central Panhandle where some showers and thunder could occur. 

TONIGHT: Complex upper level pattern with  a low at an anomalously low latitude (Eastern Gulf) to cross across parts of South Florida going into Wednesday late in the day. At least one if not two surface reflections of this low pressure area could form around the state, possibly along Southwest Florida coast and another somewhere over the Gulf Stream waters of the east coast south of the Cape. Temperatures aloft are to be quite cold which be a red flag alert for severe weather;  however, overall lapse rates and associated instability at the surface and lack of wind shear looks to result in minimal impact for what could have been a rather 'strong storm event' if a few factors had aligned differently. 

WEDNESDAY: Given the position of the low however, and the jet stream more or less even to the south of most of the state, the overall consensus at this time point to  mainly a rain event (for some areas) with thunder possible 'aloft' (in cloud-cloud to in-cloud lightning mainly).  There might be some small hail briefly of 'below severe size' should a strong storm be able to form but for the most part it looks mainly like   high rain chances beginning along the west coast  spreading to east and working from south to north by late morning. Some showers might be able to evolve before or near day break along the east coast south of the Cape and press ashore as well as a prelude to the day's orchestration. The prevailing wind direction most of the day will be from the ESE-SE- to eventually south whereas upper level steering mainly will be from the southwest for any stronger activity.

THURSDAY: Hard to say exactly when rain chances will end other than it looks like the higher end rain chances will end sometime before midnight (if not much sooner) with lingering activity always possible into mid-day Thursday. This part of the forecast is far less certain. But be advised

The NAM model indicates potential rainfall totals up to between 2-4" in very localized areas especially just in from the east coast from  Brevard County and south, likely due to a slightly warm air advection pattern at low levels coming in off the Gulf Stream waters resulting in some surface based instability. Suspect this is overdone though and might be able to cut those numbers in half. We'll be able to see what comes about though as this is a rather 'tight' situation to evolve  and bears watching for possibly 'flood watch criteria (somewhere)' should   a  locally energized pattern set up. 

Such events are very difficult to foresee in advance as it is and given the very unusual circumstances forthcoming in regard to the overall synoptic upper level pattern that is to evolve coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty with where any specific necessary dynamics will end up being located (  including potential training affects or rain storms repeatedly over any given area) only makes the rainfall total part of the forecast all the more difficult to put a finger on

In regard to temperatures it will mainly be cooler due to rainfall and cloud cover, but no 'cold front' will be blasting through once this system passes. No, temperatures will be much more pleasant Thursday with a cold front still to approach  but more so Friday and Saturday.

FRIDAY: This day looks rain free and rather nice as the low pressure assembly line moves out further east over the Atlantic. A cold front on the approach however for Saturday Night.

SATURDAY: If you want a nicer weekend day in regard to warm air, this would be the day. Highs in the lower to possibly mid 80Fs (inland) as front approaches from the northwest. Some clouds around but no rain is foreseen.

SUNDAY: Front to pass down the state overnight Saturday night. Sunday to be a good 10F degrees cooler for the most part than the day before but dry with light wind. Slowly modifying temperatures going toward Tuesday of next week with no cold blasts yet foreseen even in the far off land of the distant future . Looks like we might be 'good' from 'cold air' at least into the first week of March if not longer (at least in terms of how cold it has got this year, this upcoming cool spell will but take is to around seasonal norms for about two days).

No comments:

Monday, February 6, 2017

Remote Chance of Strong Storm/Near Record Highs - Tuesday/Wednesday

A Particularly Peculiar Situation  (PPS) Over Cocoa Beach Pier Friday Morning
TODAY: Gradual air mass modification continues with light easterly winds and not much in clouds. All in all a nicer day than yesterday - less cool and more comfortable for the natives on the beach.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, wind was to become  more southeast Monday evening to south and eventually SSW into late morning on Tuesday. This outlook is still on track.  Appears the east coast sea breeze will make an attempt to develop and press inland, but if so will make little progress if any. Chance of low cloud cover and/or fog in the morning but will rapidly burn out into mid-morning in areas where it might be able to form.

The bigger issue is the potential for showers and/or even a thunderstorm (possibly strong) to occur mainly east of the Orlando longitude and closer toward I-95 and east somewhere from East-Central Volusia south toward Indian River County. For now will target in on Brevard County as reference region.
Convergence near the east coast coupled with good low level lapse rates (localized upward forcing) in the presence of rather cold air aloft could make for a storm akin to a 'stronger type-summer storm' siutation coupled with a little help from wind aloft. All in all, if the tell-tale signs being advertised by the NAM bear merit, could call for small hail and maybe winds gusts near 50mph. 

Overall, the situation might be one of those Port St John to far southern Volusia County situations for a stronger storm. On the other hand, the NAM has a preponderance to over-hype which has been implying this chance. The other option might be for a broader range of rain showers and larger area of potential general thunder. Either way...

WEDNESDAY: Less chance of rain this day with continued southwest wind. This is the day that for now appears might approach 'near record highs' for the date. I do not know what the record high is for the various locations of East Central, but if guidance implies an 83-84F, chances are it could be even warmer especially from near Vero Beach and north toward Titusville.

THURSDAY: The front that was thought to come through by early this day is now slated for after sunset. Thus, another warm day with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs wiith a west to WNW wind in the 10-15 mph range during mid-afternoon, especially south of I-4 . There is a chance of seeing some rain immediately either during or after frontal passage late Thursday toward evening along the east coast, otherwise mainly only some cloud cover.  The front will come down almost straight from the north to be followed by rapid turn to NE and eventually ENE wind; as such, the East Coast will be spared  much in the cold air department with return flow off the Atlantic.

FRIDAY: Lows in the upper 50Fs to near 60F Brevard and south but cooler inland and even cooler yet still further north. Either way, nothing unusual.

BEYOND: Moderating temperatures to near normal values as another front will slide by perhaps late weekend, but won't go into this one for now. It appears whatever the next front will do will have even less affect than the previous one late Thursday with an even less chance of rain.

IN SUMMARY: Beyond next weekend it appears Central/South Florida is 'out of the woods' in the Cold Air Department up through Mid - February. 

No comments:

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Near Normal To Above Normal Temperature Tuesday - Wednesday

Saturday Shrimping off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: A 'frontal boundary' side-winding down the state with little fanfare other than some increased clouds from Brevard County line and north which might work south, but mostly noted by wind direction change and perhaps a shower near the east coast mainly from near Melbourne Beach and North. Radar is showing some showers off shore heading toward the coast (below image) but skeptical that they'll make it west of the western edge of the Gulf Stream waters offhore to our east without collapsing over the cooler immediate coastal shelf waters. But who's to say. In any-case, could see a few more clouds as the day wears on  , and even if the rain showers themselves do not make it to the coast proper, still might experience an uptick in the wind from Northeast direction sometime after the 2-3:30pm time frame.  

SUNDAY: Though some cloud cover might persist early morning mainly north half of state the overall 'non-event' will be also non-effectual in regard to impact to activities and temperature . Sunday might be a bit cooler than today though overall, but close to normal. If there is to be any showers, they'd be gone by noon. Sunday won't be quite as warm as today at the beaches however. and a weak coastal trough will close slightly and move off north and east, bring northerly wind down it's back side on the way out..though mainly only for Sunday through mid-day Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind gradually to swing around to east then southeast Monday into Monday night and become more south to southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like these days will see highs in the lower 80Fs inland, and maybe some middle 80Fs here and there but remain dry.

THURSDAY: Next front to come through, and for now looks like it will pass through dry south of I4 but could easily change.

BEYOND: So far nothing too unusual  is showing up on the long range to beyond in regard to temperature 'EXTREMES"...not to say it couldn't quite 'cold' again in the next two weeks, but so far that does not appear will be the case for any more than about 36 hours. 

No severe weather in the next week. By around next Saturday is where some pretty big inconsistencies come into play in regard to the GFS vs. The Climate Model in how to handle an upper trough to build down the U.S. East Coast. The GFS almost tries to pinch off a low near Florida, while other models do not. Either way..  other than today (and the chance is very slim) and maybe around next Thursday or will be dry, normal temperatures ingeneral.. and relatively uneventful. Plenty of front rows seats available, but no show.

No comments:

Saturday, January 28, 2017

Cold, Wet Sunday - Extended Stay through Wednesday ...Storms in February?

Last year Near This Date

TODAY: Rather cool with decreasing sun and increasing clouds. Abundant cloud cover harvested over the Gulf in association with an upper level disturbance to graze across Florida early Sunday through late afternoon .  Temperatures rather cool though some sunny breaks always possible now and then through sunset to add a step to the day and some warmth, but not in all areas. South to Central will fair the best for today in regard to sun and warmer.

OVERNIGHT-SUNDAY:  Guidance very consistent for several days now on a chance of rain with cold air aloft to drag some of that down to the surface. Latest NAM and not quite so much the GFS models show highs in the low end of the mid 50Fs possibly cooler toward the 48F-50F range where cloud cover and/or rain might fall. 

Rain will generally work from west to east reaching east locations of North Central and Central sometime after 2AM - 5AM. Rain chances and or cloud cover continues until early afternoon Central, and later down to South Florida. Highs again well below climatological norms. Guessing for Central it will end from west to east from late morning and moving off the east coast around the 1PM time frame though clouds might persist until dark. South Florida the rain will be in place possibly until dark-time.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind to pick up a bit from the NW by Monday  but and begin to decrease into Tuesday. So far, appears skies not an issue but watching for high cirrus clouds to be problematic. So will see on that one. Morning lows not showing anything too unusual (mainly mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast and south); it's the afternoon highs that stay well below par for the course, barely reaching 60F on Monday and lower to mid 60Fs Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Back to normal, pleasant and continued dry with light wind.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Next weekend looks to be everything this weekend won't be.

BEYOND: Entering into February, the leaves begin to turn in due time.  GFS off and on and more so the CFSV2 long range climate model is showing 1, 2, now 3 'potential 'weather events' spaced from 7 -10 days apart from each other during the month. However, there is no consistency in the signal thus far, and will change on a daily basis. Whether more severe weather events will be on the way cannot be stated with any certainty; however, February has been known historically to be a big month for severe weather in Florida going into Mid- March (though not every year obviously).

All in all, looks like this upcoming 'cold weather outbreak' will be our true real taste of winter's extended stay...out much beyond mid February though it can get cold again, and does...the cold events begin to get shorter in length, and more spaced apart.

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Saturday, January 21, 2017

Enhanced Risk of Severe Potential Remains Real Late Sunday

Uprooted Tree Remains Post-Matthew from October - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Warmer and a bit muggier today as advertised with developing S-SW wind this afternoon. High in the lower 80Fs mostly though some areas might see a mid-80F. Any rain/storms would remain north of I-4. 

Meanwhile. the first severe weather threat period moves in across the Panhandle region mainly from Tallahassee and west. A few tornado warnings are already on the horn further west .

Radar simulations from the HRRR model  indicate the chance for a high end tornado near Pensacola toward Panama City area of possible EF3 strength. (that  is only a forecast, but the 'threat' is real), but that is from only one run (which is done hourly) from one short term model. On the other hand, other guidance is not nearly as menacing. Regardless, an enhanced severe threat remains with the activity projected to impact that area late morning hours toward noon time.

SUNDAY: Nice start to the day with increasing SW. The next episode of severe enters the picture first again toward the Panhandle sometime late morning, possibly a bit further east than round one, which then continues to press east and expand southward along what appears would be a bit of a broken, QLCS squall line.

As being noted in varying models, timing remains an issue as to when North Central to Central Direct will be impacted. There appears to be agreement though, that some kind of a squall line type formation will develop early to mid afternoon from near JAX SSW to west of Tampa which will then strengthen and expand southward into near sunset; however, not all focus should be on the line if it were to develop. 

Some guidance also indicates discrete , isolated storm cells forming acorss 'anywhere' Central Florida after 4pm toward dark and moving off the east coast. Though small and quick moving if so, such activity in the given situation can produce a quick tornado and//or strong wind gusts.

As anticipated a low level jet coupled with a 500mb (as opposed to 300mb) jet streak well aloft (500mb is lower in the atmosphere) along with a little bit of directional shear will result in bulk shear (speed shear plus directional shear) which would abet in resultant rapid updraft formation. There will be sufficient instability from day time heating coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60Fs (moisture) to add to the mix. These factors along with low level helicity values in the 200/300 m2/sec2, which is like a cork screwing horizontal wind field racing parallel to the ground will lay down the framework for the Tornado Threat Welcome Mat  ....   as has not been seen in this area for quite a while in regard to potentiality. 

Given the important relevance of this upcoming 'situation' have refrained from making a personal map of where activity might occur and left it up to what is readily available. "IF" I had made a note it 'will mention' that just because areas south of the red hatched (see below) are not in there, the risk for tornado threat remains all the way down the state. Those areas are almost guaranteed any mode of weather will occur during the overnight hours, especially south of Vero Beach.

The Storm Prediction Center has place all of North Central in a 
HATCHED ENHANCED RISK which means a 10% greater risk
 for a significant severe weather event anywhere within 25 NM 
of any given point.

 Enhanced includes EF2 (or higher) tornado strength, straight line winds of 74 mph or greater, or large hail. The greatest threat (in the bloggers opinion only) appears would be wind as noted in previous post up to almost 90MPH , though said wind would be extremely isolated, and/or a tornado. 

Some models (the ones that include this parameter) show 'updraft helicity swats  ' which indicate a rotating updraft (of supercell thunderstorm nature). 
Will not include in the post as those are only a general indication and change , sometimes significantly, in both intensity of the activity as well as location from run to run.

As such, this means that the 4KM - NAM model , for instance, has consistently indicated a few 'particularly nasty storms' based on that parameter alone from near Orlando/Canaveral in general and further north, with the strongest activity north of a line from Brooksville toward Ormond Beach. 

Threat period from far North Central southward toward the Vero Beach area best guess runs from around 3PM (north) to after 10PM (Vero Beach). Some areas as inferred earlier might see activity more than once if activity begins to erupt ahead of the prefrontal broken line, which would be prior to dark. Suspect that the actual organized area, for example, will reach a line from near Titusville toward Sarasota between 8:30pm - 10:00pm but it could be sooner. Other pre-line activity would be prior to or even during sunset time frame.

This does look more now like a 'live coverage' 
situation for local TV Channel networks.

BEYOND: Monday will be breezy with westerly wind, some cloud cover and cooler with the coldest air to arrive Tuesday through Wednesday morning as wind begins to decrease.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Rapid turn around Wednesday. Very cool in the morning (upper 40Fs inland to lower-mid 50Fs near coast) with a southerly flow develop late morning , sending highs into the upper 70Fs to near 80F in the afternoon as the next front approaches.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD: The GFS and the CFSV2 are trending on more of a prolonged cool down period, as in, " WINTER PHASE II  "

 Not only cooler, but a few episodes of 'much cooler'. 

For just how long it will go on is questionable and the entire period (into mid-February) would not be cool to cold constantly. Regardless, winter isn't over yet.  The GFS has hinted on a few runs of near freezing to freezing temperatures south of Orlando but mostly indicates mid-upper 30F in the colder areas if such a situation were to develop. This is all well out of range of foreast accuracy anyway, only to say, 'don't be surprised' if local forecasts begin to allude to more chilly weather on tap. 

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Thursday, January 19, 2017

Severe Weather Threat Increased for Sunday/Sunday Night

Sunrise Wednesday Morning - (Sunset Image at End of Post For Same Day)
TODAY-SATURDAY: Continued above normal temperatures with light wind today through Friday.

By Friday wind becomes a bit more Southerly, continued warm

By Saturday afternoon things now become sketchy . Chances of shower/storms (if possible) appears would be restricted to north of I-4. Elsewhere, increasing high clouds.

SUNDAY: Big Day of Questions: Latest GFS model overnight run (and continuity from previous post) continues to advertise the risk of a squall line moving across the state.

The  factors most contributing to the risk would be strong mid-upper level winds of 90Kts (mainly north half of state), with a 500mb 'jet' of near 90knts  with up to 30kts of bulk shear contribuiting even in the lowest 2000 ft from surface to 925mb, with higher amounts of shear up through the column. 

Consider, that when we have thunderstorms, sometimes strong in the summer, there is normal NO shear at all.

Additionally, at least early on, there would be Convective Available Potential Energy between 800-1200 J/kg2 (though the GFS might be underscoring this value). Helicity values in the 200m2/s2 don't hurt, but are not particularly of great concern , but could contribute to brief tornadic spin ups (that rather weak as far as tornadoes are concerned)

Factors that would prevent this 'possible event' from reaching a solid MDT RISK DAY is poor mid-level lapse rates and directional wind shear values mostly having passed east of the state before other factors that do contribute come together, mainly after dark Sunday evening.

As a result, and given that there is still a few more days to monitor and many more model runs to monitor as Sunday draws closer, this situation does bear close, scrutinous monitoring.

As seen below, for purposes only, the highest risk for the strongest Category of severe levels in the winds mostly appears would be All of North Central to northern parts of South Central Florida.

Further south , however, has some other factors which 'could have' brought that region into greater threat but will leave well enough alone. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed all of North Central in a 'Substantial Severe" watching mode. 

Thus, Sunday might evolve into being a MODERATE RISK DAY. Rare for Florida.
Greatest threat appears to be high end severe straight line winds, quick and difficult to warn for tornado spin ups , especially if this ends up being a QLCS SQUALL LINE, with broken line segments.

Expect that if nothing else changes, this will be one of those weather events where TV CHANNELS will be doing continuous LIVE COVERAGE. 

BEYOND: Breezy on Monday and cloudy. Cooler but not cold, possible light rain though clouds seem to be prevalent mode. Temperatures running near normal.

EVEN YET: As noted in previous post, if conditions line up this time for one SEVERE EVENT, the chance that more could follow is always a potential. 

The Latest GFS does show not only one but TWO possible events up to the first week of February. The latest of all might be a humdinger but given how far out in time that is, and that it was only of the latest run - there is no continuity so would discard ..and revisit in about a week.

YET EVEN STILL: GFS continues to show a big but short lived 'COLD EVENT" - though the model does seem to over exaggerate cold events beyond Day 7, so will disregard. Point being, not time to put away the mitts, scarves, and snow shovels.

Sunset Wednesday Evening

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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Warmer Yet Still To Saturday - Severe Sunday Night?

Start of a New Work Week - Sunrise Cape Canaveral

TODAY-SATURDAY: More of the same, more or less, with an above normal temperature regime with an increasingly decreasing chance of shallow, low topped ocean showers near the coast during the overnight to early morning hours as wind becomes progressively southerly come Friday into Saturday. Though, up until that time, a brief sprinkle is possible -- that chance will wane.

Warmest afternoon temperatures inland away from the cooling affect of the near shore waters, with highs in the upper 70Fs to just near 80F or so, while inland highs will reach the lower 80Fs to lower range of mid-80Fs.

BY FRIDAY, even the east coast will begin to get in on the warmer afternoons as well with comfortably cool mornings with a SSW-SW wind developing around this time frame.

SATURDAY: The latest GFS model has been 'Implying" (in varying degrees with each 6 hour run) that there will be the potential for a squall line to form along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front moving from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico, with the better chance of any affected area being near to north of I-4. 

On the other hand, the latest run implies that risk could cover the length of the peninsula.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Given the POTENTIAL (which as of this time is based only on the latest model run and will likely change around with time)  will at least mention the chance of a Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS) to cross the state beginning after sunset Sunday night to pass to the east coast sometime after 2-3AM  Monday  morning. 

Though factors/timing are not lining up which would maximize strength, namely in the wind fields and instability (which will be greatly limited ), might expect that there might be more than is being implied. Overall, as being an overnight situation based on current timing , bulk shear in the mid levels might be being 'under estimated' in the model which would compensate for lack of more instability.

Either way, given the latest , might be seeing a Severe Thunderstorm watch, if not Tornado watch issued for parts or all of the state Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (first panhandle/north Florida) then further south - though there's still plenty of monitoring time to see what evolves. 

PRIOR to that last model run, thinking (on this end) was for a good chance of rain accompanied with some gusty wind and maybe severe in the panhandle region through the Big Bend (only).  

TUESDAY ON: Regardless, post frontal passage shows west wind for a good two days to follow with temperatures near to just below 'normal'. Not real cold, just cool , ranging through the 50s/60Fs to near 70F for lows / highs respectively.

BEYOND YET STILL: Winter isn't over yet. We could still see some colder spells of several consecutive days as the GFS model and the CFSV2 models are implying, even out to mid-February.  Will also watch for yet another severe potential (if this upcoming situation evolves into one). Such circumstances tend to come in twos or threes spread out from 7-10 days apart from each other, though this year is not an El Nino year which is when that kind of set up might evolve in greater likelihood.

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Friday, January 6, 2017

Increase Clouds, Rain. Storm Chances : Brrr-acious Saturday Thru Monday Morning

The "Observation" Tower Reflects the Calm Nature of Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Gorgeous start to the day but changes   in the making . are on the way to the Northern and Central Peninsula as we speak / read. A simple glance at radar and satellite imagery reveals that things are not quite what they might seem to be and will be on the down-swing going into this evening. 

A Cold front has already cut through the far Western Panhandle with grievous low level cloud cover and rain (even some sleet) occurring behind the boundary back in the cold air.  

The boundary will progress to a line per the GFS/and 4KM-NAM models to near South Tampa Bay to near Canaveral by around 1:30PM Saturday. (Noting that the North American Model (NAM) is considerably slower with the surface boundary's passage and has been consistently so in the past several runs, but for now will discount it).  

Meanwhile, continued warmer than 'normal' today ahead of the boundary with SW wind and highs in the lower 80Fs mainly south of and near I-4 . Increasing cloud cover with some showers and possibly thunder storms of strong to near severe levels mainly from near Cedar Key south toward Brooksville with a secondary area being watched for the near Sarasota toward Punta Gorda region  much later today toward evening (though that is a very low threshold risk for them being watched for at time of writing). 

 Otherwise, am expecting there is a chance of a 
"No Watch -but Warnings Possible" situation  

No Watch issuance for severe as coverage looks like it would be too isolated and factors are not lining up for all that much of a likelihood as well despite that there are several factors at play for severe  - they just are not adding up together to occur all at the same time.  

Either way, chance of it becoming breezier after dark with the first hints of rain fall not to occur Central (Interior) and Eastern Coastal areas until well after dark. Anytime after the 10PM time from for isolated activity well ahead of the boundary across all of Central but there is a chance nothing will occur in that time frame. 

The better chances more directly related to the front after midnight going into the sunrise time frame for  areas north of Ft Pierce to Punta Gorda line.

Cloud cover  and light to a few spots of moderate rain with a chance of embedded shear induced rotation where pockets of vertical uplift is concentrated could result in some lightning  and 'small' (non-severe) sized hail , with the chance of stronger wind gusts in (and in the vicinity of) even heavier isolated rain storms .

 Any activity beyond 'light rain' (if even) will be very isolated and quite brief in the 'in and outta here' fashion. At time not expecting that a Weather Watch will be issued for the upcoming situation at hand, unless conditions shift and one would be justifiably warranted.


Saturday Afternoon: Assuming the GFS guidance which has held steady for days is reasonably accurate and holds intact, the front will pass through Central Florida from North to South from around 10:30AM (Northern parts)  to 3:30PM (Southern Parts) followed by a deliberate and noticeable shift in wind direction with much colder temperatures chasing down behind it eager to swift in for the kill.

Highest temperatures of the day will occur Saturday across all of North Central and Central prior to 1PM as a result (contingent upon the actual time the front passes through any given location).

Chances for  small craft advisories willlikely  be issued with winds gusts to near 33+ MPH possible with temperatures falling into the mid-upper 50Fs and yet colder still mainly west of I-95 / North of I-4 into the evening and to Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest readings to occur from near Brooksville to Ocala across to Ormond Beach and north with below freezing readings for over six hours possible all across the Panhandle and down toward the Ocala National Forest regions with 'cold' WCI (wind chill index) readings.

Secondary cold area from near Punta Gorda  northeast to across western parts of the Orlando area and northeastward toward Central Volusia County though probably above freezing of if any freezing, for a very short period of time.

Outside of those regions incrementally warmer the further east and south one goes.

Coastal Brevard and Southward might not get below 50F during the entire event, outside of some Upper 40S   North or Central Brevard  along the coast. West of I-95 or US1, different story. 

Brrracious! with the wind.  

ALL Day Sunday will be characterized with a NNW wind becoming more northerly with time with highs never cracking the big "6-0 F " .

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Continued cold but again, northerly to becoming more  NNE wind with time should prevent the immediate Coast from falling below 50F once again. Wind becomes more NNE-NE to even ENE by day's end Monday and slowly decreases. So far, guidance implies increasing low level cloudiness as the wind veers to more easterly as well, meaning increasing low level pancake stratocumulus clouds with only a few cloud breaks possibly all day Monday and if it were possible some light patches of rain spits straight through to Tuesday morning and possibly the same that day as well.

VAST IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN on TUESDAY AFTERNOON (?) from east to west, with warming and wind shifting to more southerly by Wednesday with temperatures returning to normal and even a bit above  " 'so called' 'Normal'" by Thursday.

BEYOND: Other than perhaps a weak boundary pressing through, the GFS has been showing that this upcoming colder , blustery weather will not be followed by a repeat performance any time soon. 

At least not with in the next 10 days to follow. 

At ease,  soldiers .

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