"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Ruffles And High Pressures Have Ridges

(First image: forecast stationary front position and little surface ridges emanating from the High pressure center over Lake Erie this evening. Note how one is a relflection of the Appalachin chain at ground level. Second image...300mb - jet stream level - winds for the same time frame)
Today like yesterday and the day before change. The weather around here lately has been about as exciting as a game of tiddly winks (actually, that would be more exciting). Not going into ifs, ands, ors, buts, But suffice it say that nothing has changed from previous discussions, and nothing much will change, at least not substantially through the coming week. However, that's not saying that things are cooperating. It appears the frontal boundary depicted over our area this evening will be lingering around until at least Thanksgiving day leaving the cloud coverage forecast somewhat problematic but temperatures a given. It beening stationary is largly a function of the depicted southern branch jet stream (a classic position during an El Nino year). What is shown above is for later tomorrow...but it's looked that way for a few days now.

For east central Florida it will be just what we've been experiencing for the past couple of days with lows in the upper 60s and highs in the upper 70s with lots of high and off and on mid level clouds. There are periods in the outlooks depicting a slight chance (and I stress "slight") of rain, but for the most part there won't be any worth mentioning.

Oddly, things seem to come more together for after Thanksgiving for the 'all's clear'..but that is so far away and with the flick of a switch this could change as well. I know lots of folks want to know what the Thanksgiving Weekend will be like, but we have to be realistic here. That is five days out...and unless we were under some extreme conditions one way or another things tend to move little, so the best way to look at it is that things will kind of ooze into transition. A very 'sketchy' outlook for now is 'painting' the scenario for 'Art' Festival goers of slightly cooler temperatures (high just near 70 and low in the mid 50s) for Friday and Saturday...gradually moderating after that. Clouds and rain wise? Probably lots of clouds around until the day after Thanksgiving...maybe longer (and this is where it really gets sketchy). For simplicities sake no elaboration is going to be made as to all the reasons why things are would be like trying to describe how to assemble a Rubik's cube in two sentences.

Bear in mind, anything you hear or see on The Weather Channel or the news is subject to change..quite literally...because frankly forecasting out that far under our current set up is beyond the scope of reality and purely fictional (despite what they'd like to lead a person to believe). Just being honest. The only thing I can say with a very high degree of confidence is that it won't be windy (no gusts above 20mph) and it won't be cold and it won't be a wash out (of rain).

A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises. For the next forecast, perhaps we should consult the O.I.U.J.I. model.

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