"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 1, 2016

Pecking at Very Warm Today - A Shower and Perhaps Thunder Near/ East of I95 Late Afternoon

Pecking Away at the Next Forecast in Canaveral
TODAY: Very warm for this time of year today and perhaps tomorrow though record high temperatures might be out of reach for most locales other than the Daytona Beach area.

Regardless, wind SSW to SW but not pressure  gradient not tight enough to restrain the east coast sea breeze from making inland progress. Warmest temperatures to be away from the immediate beaches but they too might attain a mid-80F reading previous to onset of the sea breeze, most unlikely though toward the A1A strip . 

Outflow 'Shelf-ish' Feature Approaches Shore Thursday Morning From an Ocean  Shower
Humid for this time of year, with a cumulus field developing after patches of early day 'low level clouds' which might be present in some areas burn off around sunrise  .

Best chance of showers east of Rte 27 which would move east and northeast,  with highest instability originating in SW Florida but working east and north during the day. 

This combined with the 'Lake Shadow' effect and east coast sea breeze within 20 miles of the east coast (supposedly) might make for things to come together for thunder toward the immediate coast later in the day (but very isolated if so). So far not geared toward a 'strong wording' at this time of the morning (6:30AM) other than for the Panhandle region. Any showers will quickly dissipate after loss of daytime heating (by to just after sunset).

SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness and continued warm as cold front approaches. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma) has put all of Central and North Florida in a 'Marginal Risk" for the chance of organized severe weather though at time despite better wind fields to support this idea suspect that high clouds will limit surface based instability in the presence of lack of better low level forcing except closest to the front proper. Best chance for such would thus remain closer to I-4 timing wise in conjection with best afternoon heating (north) but much depends on timing of the boundary and if possible, outflow  from earlier rain-cooled activity across North Florida which should be ongoing in limited fashion perhaps even at sunrise on Saturday across the Panhandle.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Front to sever the state around 4- 7AM with much cooler air (for several days) to follow with north to northeast and eventually easterly winds taking hold.  Cloudiness and some patches of light rain might be present toward sunrise Central working south into late morning. 

The Coast won't see anything cooler than the lower to mid 60Fs for the most part by Monday but cooler inland. Afternoon highs though will be much cooler for 2-3 days (until around Thursday).

Next front brings rain chances back in the late Thursday/Friday time frame and the GFS trend is for the air behind it to be even cooler that the one that is now slowly making its approach with some wide spread lower to mid 50Fs..but won't jump on that bandwagon whole-heartedly just yet.

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