"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 3, 2014

Fall's First Clearance Sells for a 'Chilling' Sunday Morning Price - Storms Possible Today

"Out with the Hot, in with the Very Cool" - Free A/C with each purchase!"

TODAY:  Long anticipated first cold front of the fall season is closing ranks on the Florida Peninsula sales associates coming into Saturday afternoon and evening. This front is impacting in varying ways almost the entire country east of the Rocky Mountains as customers are trampling each other for the free freshened air. The parent upper low pressure area is well north in South Central Canada and very wrapped up taking the form of a giant apostrophe with the northern extent already occluding out. The southern extent moving across the South Central Plains and into the Deep South will enter the panhandle later tonight and into Central Florida beginning noon time Saturday.

Meanwhile, with a sea breeze active and WNW winds aloft, atmospheric destabilization in the presence of a less moist atmosphere from that of several days ago will lead to very warm temperatures inland but closer to normal at the beaches. Convergence of boundaries will also be last to come and later than the norm, but where this does occur we could see some storms well-up, if not even being potentially a bit strong. On the other hand, they might only manifest as rain showers; best chances are somewhere in between. The panhandle region appears to have a better chances of storms but again, high clouds could spread east ahead of the line of storms currently to their west which could put  the kabbash on storm strength. 

Storm motion appears will be from the NW-WNW but might vary along the sea breeze boundary especially if they can hold up and roll toward the coast.

See Captions. Again, most activity will be a bit isolated
and exactly 'where' any storms could
develop is sketchy. Best chances though of something stronger appears to be east of I-95 and north of SR 60 if not 50 on the east coast  after 5pm.

SATURDAY: Front to enter Central Florida toward I-4 around noon-time and progress southward, reaching South Florida by or just after dark. The front will be very close to a Cape Canaveral to Sarasota line around 1pm give or take an hour with drier air not far behind. The real input of the dry and cold air should become realized around 8 -9pm Saturday evening across all of Central Florida from a Melbourne west toward Sarasota line... and continue to infiltrate southward over night on NNW winds.

SUNDAY MORNING: GFS has been quite consistent for days now showing Mid 50Fs as far south as far SW Florida and lower 50s in the interior to west coast, with the west side of Orlando for example being in the 52-54F range and then mainly mid - upper 50Fs east toward I-95. Near 60F close to US1 and on the immediate beaches from 63F-67F. Generically over the years, 67F has often been measured on the first burst of fall in Cocoa Beach as a reference, so it will be interesting to see what the verdict is on the price of final sales in that respect for a location such as East Coastal Brevard County. 

The warmest locations Sunday morn will be from Cape Canaveral south to the keys as is typical even in the winter months. Note that morning low prices on this Sunday morning clearance sale could reach between 15- 25F degrees cooler than summer block busters ,  that what we've been accustomed to for 'many moons'; so it will take a frag of adjusting too and feel a bit unusual but will be easy on the walllet. Perfect for Sunday morning dress up codes.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY: NOTE the 'Dip" way up by British Columbia? (That's the next front)

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sunny and quite pleasant but maybe just a bit breezy with a high in the lower 70Fs though could peak out briefly warmer for an hour. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly as the sun gets low within an hour of sunset except at the immediate beaches after midnight.

MONDAY MORNING: Lighter ENE-NE winds should keep the immediate beaches from 'bottoming out' back into the 50Fs but instead level off around midnight if not even warm a few degrees; however, there is a chance that the model is over-guestimating return onshore flow, so would not be surprised if this morning is also a bit 'tart' on the outside thermostat if expecting it to be warmer (say upper 60Fs as opposed to low 60Fs). Otherwise, open the windows if so desired either evening. Free A/C for all!! No coupon necessary.

BEYOND: Tuesday will begin air mass modification day with full return to near normal in the afternoon and beyond. The next front will then be approaching toward week's end but with moisture return beginning potentially as soon as Thursday morning along the east coast in the form of coastal showers. The next front so far will become detached from the 'mother low' shown above and so far is not being indicated to have nearly the impact if barely any temperature wise. 

TROPICS: This front today as mentioned before could become in part a trigger for something tropical in the far Western Caribbean heading into Week two so might bear watching. Otherwise, the front in another way will lift back north as a moisture boundary with better chances of east coast morning showers mostly Friday and Saturday as well working inland in the day light hours..

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