(Image: Memories of Stormy Wednesday. Might not see something like this again until 2011)
RECAP: Happy October! Ex-Storm Nicole is ex-no-more with mid-upper level energy currently impacting New England south to Coastal Virginia as it meets a cold frontal boundary up that way. Further south, and I'm sure some would quickly disagree, it appears there remains a surface reflection of what was originally Nicole situated between the Western Bahamas and Jupiter Inlet. This area has moved little since late yesterday and from latest forecast models will continue to remain off the Florida East Coast during the upcoming first half of the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front has pushed through the entire state as of early this morning, with a reinforcing boundary pushing through the state as I write, most notable by a drop in dew point temperatures behind this second boundary. Higher aloft, broad low pressure trough extends down the Eastern seaboard with embedded bubbles of lower pressure within the trough up and down the the Southeast U.S. Coast just offshore. Further NW, high pressure tries to dominate but the trough can't get further east due to another area of high pressure to the east of it.
TODAY: Nice weather prevails. Lowest surface pressure at this time over the state noted at Canaveral, indicating the presence of the surface low well off to the SE..with a reading of 29.76" (compare this to surface pressures well above 30.20" when under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft under other circumstances (mainly in the winter). However, with the drier air mass moving in to re-enforce the already drier air than what has been in place all summer, expect skies to remain nearly clear. With drier air in place tonight, morning low temperatures everywhere will be even cooler than this morning. It was 69F on my Canaveral Porch this morning, with PAFB reporting 70F the hour prior (at the same time the porch also showed 70F). Just a little verification check on the accuracy of this Wal-Mart wonder. Winds will be NW-NNW to start the day and gradually veer to N -NNE by or shortly after sunset. High temperatures today in the mid-upper 80s, but with drier air in place it will feel almost like fall especially after 5pm.
TOMORROW: As noted above, cooler tomorrow morning most locales, although temperatures along the barrier islands might be the same as this morning if not warmer due to a slightly onshore wind component becoming established blowing across the warm Atlantic waters, mainly north of Jupiter Inlet. Otherwise, another nice day in-store until at least mid afternoon. This is in total negation to what is showing on The Weather Channel here this morning which is stating a 50% chance of rain tomorrow with thunder possible (I'm seeing that now as I type). So, just sayin'...perhaps it won't be so nice?
LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND: Clustering this period together with a note of what the models have been trending toward. As mentioned in two earlier posts, it appeared that a strong NNE-NE wind regime would develop placing the coastal communities in a windy and possibly wet regime. This no longer appears will be the case. Each consecutive run of the NAM and GFS show a brief period of concentrated rain somewhere from JAX to Melbourne working toward Miami with time, but have shifted this event to occur from Early Saturday now to early Sunday. Additionally, strong surface winds are now no longer reflected to occur, ever. If this trend continues, we might not see any rain at all, anywhere...except perhaps extreme S. Florida with time in association with tropical activity in the Caribbean interacting with a surface boundary. But that would be many days away should that manifest, well beyond the scope of believability. Still awaiting completion of model runs as of this time, but for now will go with what the 'trends' have been as well as what the ECMWF has been indicating since last night.
As such, believe the chance of rain will wane even more with time in later model runs. If it's going to rain at all it will be late Saturday (mostly after dark/early Sunday). And this would be spotty and light at worst anywhere from Jax southwest to Naples. Beyond Sunday, another front could enter the picture as we head into later next week reinforcing the dry air already in place with no sign of rain on the horizon for quite some time. Any modification of the air mass along the east coast due to an onshore wind component appears will be too shallow for generation of showers, although can't throw out quite yet the chance of a cloud deck which would only put a damper on one's outlook on life, but not on outdoor activities. A lot depends on what occurs with the generalized area of low pressure residing off the SE U.S. Coast and over the Bahamas. Should this area somehow shift to the west, the picture changes entirely for Florida...and this will be reflected in upcoming posts. The NAM does indicate it could come closer to the coast in the mid-levels by Sunday, but with little affect other than clouds before it lifts off to the NNE.
TROPICS: Latest NHC discussions and graphics indicate two areas of concern located in the western Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Any development in either area should be of no concern to the continental United States, as either one or both of these areas weakens with time, or any development worthy of intensification should be extracted toward the N and eventually NE and out of the picture. Still need to watch the Caribbean though as we head out in time. Eventually, the pattern over the continent will shift with yet another front working through which would open the gates for a system to move north toward the state. One could speculate one way or the other as to whether anything will occur, but for now it's purely speculation either way and thus will not elaborate further until something becomes even close to speculate upon realistically.