|The Cat Eyes NW Iowa Before The Tornado|
Event Even Began - The Cat's Sixth Sense
RECAP: Clear and warm in Florida yesterday and more for today. Just a quick recap of the events that have transpired that past two days elsewhere. A few days ago I mentioned that the upcoming event, (which is now the current one) might not have quite as big of a number of storm reports as the record breaking last one, but I'm not so sure now. Already, we have had more tornadoes than the last one; this was expected. But it is not over yet.
We see in the second image that yesterday alone there was 27 (not official yet) tornado reports. Some of those might be duplicates, or some more might be revealed. I've included some radar images below of one of them. There was also 3 tornadoes the day before in Oklahoma . This go around, there are more hail reports than wind ones, with a running total so far of 610 reports total . Still nearly 800 more to tie the last event. I think we will break it by Tuesday morning. We can see there was two significant areas yesterday responsible for the reports by the image above. Siblings of the same parent storm system.
Lola, my cat, was eyeing the Border crossing from Nebraska into Iowa for storms that initiated in Nebraska to become more surface based as they crossed into Iowa beyond the Missouri River, possibly generating tornadoes as a result...in the image above where all the red dots are ... those are tornado reports. Good eye, Kitty! She even nailed the track of part of one right there with a yellow highlighter to prove her point as shown in the image above.
Here is some radar imagery. The first image was the storm that started the whole. thing. It cross the Missouri River into Iowa and crossed right over Sloan, Iowa as a developing supercell. from that point on the storm reports began to filter in. Shortly thereafter, it entered a region of lower lifting condensation levels and immediately became fully rooted in the boundary layer and tornado'd...for quite a while in fact!. This tornado was a large, wedge tornado that directly hit the city of Mapleton. There is already You Tube videos out there you can see by doing the search in You Tube's search engine. There are some other very small townships that appear to have been in the path as well, but they are so small we'll probably never hear about it. The second image is the supercell storm on radar in full birth mode with the hook clearly apparent. We might even be able to see the debris field by the darker red colors curling around the hook's appendage. This was a monster tornado reportedly 1/2 -3/4 mile wide...the video I've seen back this up.
Lastly, this final image is taken from the Des Moines, NWS radar. The arrows I've drawn in point to SIX storms lined up. all of them rotating. This is a radial velocity image at Tilt 2. It depicts in bound and out bound winds toward and away from the radar's location by the color schemie noted on the right hand column of the image. In bound directly next to outbound indicates rotation. Makes sense.
FORECAST: Really not much of anything other than what we've seen the past few days until possibly Tuesday. Therefore:
TODAY: Pretty much instant replay today. High pressure was suppressed a bit to the west of the state last night as the storm system that generated all the storm reports over the East Side of the country and its associated trough moved SE and offshore over night. Therefore, winds will be NW and light, becoming more north with time..but nearly calm at times... expecting a delayed sea breeze this afternoon with inland highs in the upper 80S and a few low 90s; closer to the low-mid 80Fs right at the beach before the sea breeze kicks in.
Another big day for the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes region will commence around 1pm their time and be ongoing well into the night. A squall line will eventually form that will cover vast amounts of landscape going into later tonight and tomorrow which will be on going all day tomorrow. Hence, imagine all the storm reports that will filter in. Today looks like another big day for tornadoes..or at least the potential is certainly there, especially over the North Half of Wisconsin down into NW Illinois perhaps...parts of South Minnesota as well. Others could occur into NW Illinois. The squall line won't materialize yet today.
MONDAY: Possibly warmer than today, especially east side where there may not be a sea breeze. Dry otherwise. The squall line will be passing through the Deep South and into the Mid-Atlantic Region. More storms reports ad naseum will be flooding the SPC Data banks.
TUESDAY: The remaining last gasp of the frontal system reaches Florida, with the last possible chance of severe gone in general. I will go into the details regarding this day either tomorrow or on Monday, since the situation that MIGHT occur over a small portion (s) of Florida has been changing with every model run. So far, there's been just enough to keep things 'interesting'.
But for now, it's safe to say that the information coming in has been latching on favoring all of North Florida for rain, with a Southeast Slant toward the East Half of North Central Florida during the course of the afternoon. For several runs now the front to the north weakens..but appears to send an outflow boundary further south toward North Brevard later in the afternoon as sort of a "Faux Front"..the actual front never really makes it south of St. Augustine. If this occurs, there might be some sort of Mesoscale Accident somewhere over Southern Volusia County southward into the North Half of Brevard. It would include some lightning I suppose. Hard to tell for sure. But it looks like some folks could get a swat at some small rain fall totals less than 1/4".
The last gasp of the "Faux Front" dies and pulls off shore Brevard after dark. South Florida might also have some thunder, but the chances down there look pretty meager. But who knows, it may be that the area from Boyton Beach to Miami will end up with the thunder for an entirely different reason not associated with the front before Central Florida does right where the front is supposed to dissolve. Temperatures aloft even that far south will be cold enough. But north of Central Brevard and north of that is where the even colder air and winds aloft will reside. Some of the storms at this point by all appearances could be efficient lightning producers. In either location with the cold 500mb temperatures at play.
NOTE: The Storm Prediction Center has most of the state under a "See Text", meaning weather worth noting could occur on Tuesday. But if I were a betting man I'd whittle it down to NE Florida from St. Augustine north...and the East Side of the State from Southern Volusia County south to Southern Brevard..mainly east of I-95. The other area would be the east half of South Florida South of West Palm Beach, especially close to the coast.
BEYOND: Table turning here and there. Two consecutive runs showed the state would be almost dry ...totally blowing away the long range forecast of above average rainfall for most of the state. However, after seeing the 06Z runs, I'm not so sure this will be the case. In other words, more rainfall looks to be back in the picture for more of the month for a wide variety of reasons from time to time. Should be interesting...Time will tell.