"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 9, 2015

Much Warmer w/ East Side Rain Chance Increase Sunday/Monday

"Weekend Approaches"
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Inverted coastal trough close to shore clearly evident this morning by on surface observations. The gusty winds of yesterday became a faded memory quickly within a few hours after midnight and drainage flow down the spine of the state from north to south is attempting to reach even some coastal communities.  Temperatures vary last hour as much as a 71F at Pompano Beach to a 25F at Marianna. Most inland Central Florida spots are running the mid 40Fs gamut while closer to the coast a full 10F degrees warmer. South Florida east side as would most often be expected running the warmest in the mid-upper 60Fs.

When the winds subsided this area (of writing) after midnight the outside air temperature dropped a good 6 degrees within one hour as a result. 

Outside of the much lighter wind today, high and some lower cloud coverage could occur off and on almost anywhere. This will affect the afternoon high temperatures as will the continued penetration of the of high pressure far to the north of Florida in this very progressive weather pattern of recent days. 

The original high pressure will be well northeast of Maine today the one that was descending southward from the Northwest Plains in the previous post) as another one drops in only to exacerbate the current cold situation (especially for the northeast states). 

Over Florida, the coastal trough will work inland over the South Half of the state somewhat creating a bit of   "pseuduo-stationary- cold front' "  (see above) type situation with the 'warmer parts' running generally from Cocoa Beach west to a Southern Tampa Bay line and south. 

Highs today will vary from the lower through mid 60Fs and into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs south of that boundary (wherever it ends up ), but again, cloud cover will ultimately be yet another deciding contributor to just exactly how warm it will get in any one location (or how cool it will remain). Ultimately, it will be SW Florida that 's in the digs today for warmest temperatures.

On Saturday, the high pressure shown below will shunt the boundary further south, thus, it will be cooler on Saturday than today across Central Florida and even by a few degrees over South Florida. North Florida just remains like always, a part of Southern Georgia and Alabama as opposed to being influenced by peninsular surrounding waters. Temperatures thus today and Saturday will run a few degrees below normal for afternoon highs, but closer to normal for lows.

Meanwhile, a weak area of surface low pressure will form near the south tip of Texas overnight Saturday night as the final high pressure area will have moved offshore the Mid Atlantic states allow SSE winds to develop the boundary shown above into a 'warm front slash (/) coastal trough' (shown below) tracing along the Gulf Coast southern state borders (see below); thus, warming overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning for a potential pleasant sunrise surprise along the immediate Florida east coast Sunday morning with sunrise temperatures  within a few degrees of 70F.

SUNDAY: Much warmer with inland highs ranging from mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F (South) with coolest temperatures at the beaches, especially as anticipating the ocean temperatures will have been lowering over the past several days, with the coast closer to mid-70F (if not lower 70Fs) north of Sebastian Inlet.

Chance of showers near the coast by or before sunrise as well, with patchy cloud cover elsewhere. This 'rain chance' continues all day Sunday for the east coast beaches, but exactly where has been shifting around between and within various model runs, but the area of far North Brevard and north seems to be a consistent area as does SE Florida with Brevard/Indian River Counties being in and out of the chances. Inland areas look to remain rain free though over the weekend other than a passing spritz on the windshield.

MONDAY: This is the bigger day in question in regard to thunder. So far, the latest trend of the GFS runs favor a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota and south for thunder but much will be contingent at that point in time in where the most available moisture resides. Sufficient instability and cold air aloft will be over all but the the Panhandle and anywhere south of I4 (at least) for thunder. The GFS is now favoring that aforementioned area though per the overnight model runs though earlier runs also including almost anywhere south of I4. In short, wouldn't be surprised to see 'thunderstorms' introduced at some point in time for some locations at a later time in the official forecast. Otherwise...

BEYOND: Another very weak frontal boundary tracks out to sea elongating back westward with the coldest of air on the northern side remaining mainly north of I4 if not I-10 for several days toward the following Thursday or Friday, Beyond that time, there is a big variability in the temperature forecast going into mid-latter January. 

The normal trend is that the period from about now through the first week of February is normally the coldest (on average) time of year for much of Florida (for an extended string of days) with the last week being a real bugaboo some years. Severe weather chances (on the long-time scale (climatic)/synoptic scale level) also begin to increase around that same time up through the month of March.

Otherwise, there remains a slight chance in the shorter term that  there will continue to be a chance of light showers from time to time along the east coast to partially inland , with per chance more clouds than not - - which has been the running theme for this winter season in lieu of cold dry Arctic Air Masses.

 Looks like a fairly long string of days with prevailing light ENE winds at the surface though keeping overnights quite mild and afternoons pleasant but not overly 'warm' either into Thursday once we get beyond Saturday.

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