"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Strong Storms Possible Friday , Then "Down We Go Again"

Self Explanatory

TODAY: No surprises this morning per yesterday's post - the temperature forecast this morning would be especially an agriculturists nightmare as some TV stations are now scrambling to make fine tuning adjustments.  As suspected, the high jet stream cirrus that had dropped to South Florida late yesterday suddenly began to buckle back north toward midnight which affects how cold it will get (warmer underneath that protective layer as heat cannot more fully radiate back out to the atmosphere). 

Some freezing temperatures are noted across regions such as Brooksville for instance whereas in other locations once the clouds moved in only a very slow additional falling is being observed since midnight if not before that time. Oh nuts!

Despite that these clouds might remain in place (see image below) as they stream across from the west - southwest roughly along and south of I-4 it should still be warmer today as heights in the mid-levels will begin to rise in advance of the next system to cross the Eastern U.S. in the next 60 hours.

Highs today generally in the lower to mid 60Fs with the clouds across the south half of the state (for how long can't say but might be at least into the afternoon hours to even sunset).  

High pressure passing across the Deep South just north of Florida will continue out to the east and return easterly flow will commence though at first very light and but barely detectable. 

THURSDAY: Increasing easterly to east-southeast flow. Inland morning still very cool but nothing like this morning. Immediate east coast will really notice the change, but all areas will be considerably warmer tomorrow morning and into the afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs through the lower 70Fs.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: Increasing southeast wind  will draw moisture northward in advance of an approaching front .  

Suspect a line of storms will form over the Gulf of Mexico well west of Florida as a prefrontal trough forms just in advance of that feature almost right over the Peninsula going into late Friday morning. 

Instability might be a bit higher than it was from the previous system per forecast Lifted Indices  and there is some directional shear with that feature but more in the speed shear ; there does appear to be ample forcing to sustain rainstorm/possible thunder activity with the front itself.  

Appears that overnight Thursday Night into Friday morning a warm front will lift rapidly northward up the state followed by solid southeast to eventually south-southeast to south winds in the 15-20 mph range, possibly gusting by late morning to early afternoon in advance of the next system. 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of Strong to Risk of Marginally Severe Storm activity mainly in the form of  straight line winds / gusts. 

Forecast soundings as of the latest guidance show not only sufficient bulk shear but very cold temperatures in the mid-upper levels coupled with inverted V- Soundings due to some remaining drier air very close to the ground. 

Any parcels of very cold air falling through that drier air at ground level means 'accelerated descent' near the ground - it all spells out to gusts potentially in the 50 - 68 mph range if any decent updrafts can form. Even in and near rain showers wind would be quite gusty regardless.

Many areas will not see such winds should this end up being the situation,  but the chances now appear sufficient to qualify as a potential Risk factor.

Areas of interest beginning Early Friday through late afternoon from west to east are shown below. The window of opportunity is quite narrow though but so be it.

SATURDAY: This day is a tough call, but will ride with what was written again yesterday- that  being chance of being very windy (Lake Wind Advisory Criteria) surface wind, cloudy across parts of the state as well and very cool with highs in the upper 50Fs and maybe a better breaking of clouds late in the day. 

The low pressure center associated with this system will be making the headlines in regard to snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic states northward as Florida will be 'suffering' the repercussions of post cold front blues. But will there be clouds? That is the big question for this day..they would be wrapping around the enlarging low pressure system as it pulls into station on the Mid-Atlantic region.

SUNDAY:  "Down we Go" plummets the mercury. Perhaps yet colder than this past event at least in regard to the wind chill factor realm.

Lows Sunday from Dead Central Northward tickling the freezing mark (far north) or mid-upper 30Fs, too hard to say for sure but lower 40Fs appears to be a given at least. Gusting winds over 25mph won't help.

Such conditions might well reach the immediate beaches as well north of  Sebastian Inlet.   

In short, there isn't much anything respectable to say for this coming weekend temperature wise and perhaps even cloud wise (Saturday).


Much warmer (though not exactly 'warm') but we'l take what we can get.

MEANWHILE: Next storm system approaches in the 27th Time Frame (Wednesday next week). 

Again as details change over time and from run to run the forecasts will as well, but at time the next system again appears might be a 'strong -severe risk carrier' featuring some form of a squall line in typical El Nino fashion. 

Though this is well far out in time, there might be silver-lining to this system. 

It's not shown so far to be  carrying the burden to Florida of unusually cold air, and is followed also by a string of warmer days. rather than shall we say, one? 

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