"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Tornado "Potential" Could Increase through the Morning - Again Later Today

Early Morning Radar shows what was referred to in previous
 posts as a 'pseudo warm front and cold front' (2-3 days ago) possibility.
Several Tornado warnings and some occurrences are in place as I type 

BE ADVISED: As these storms work north toward Brevard conditions could become more favorable for ''rotation' depending on exactly what happens with Andrea to the west (time now is 7:15AM),  be on the alert in Brevard beginning 7:30AM through the following hour at least in general and then further north 
SPC is watching this area so far today as of early morning, but this might be changed in their next update (SPC - Storm Prediction Center located in Norman, OK)
As far as these posts go, it is the red areas so far that might pose
 a large tornado threat LATER TODAY
beginning around 12-1pm (and esp. toward 2pm) . But this will not be continuous storm after storm. There might be a large break in the action as noted by this recent image.
TODAY: No need to go into details today, as the posts of the past few days have pretty much zoned in on the generalities of the upcoming situation which is now in place; additionally, TV and media through the Weather Service have emoted the same message far and wide, lest one be left in the dark. It was only a matter of time.

Andrea, as it is, is expected to take the general course of the GFS proposed several several days ago which comes close to the ECMWF and the Canadian as well. Andrea might increase in strength just a bit then expand and weaken at the surface after exiting the Loop Current region, but that expansion would only serve to increase the tornado potential, especially over the East half of the state.  An upper level negatively tilted trough will eventually catch hold of the storm, but that negatively tilted trough across the peninsula will only aid in increasing wind shear and helicity, mostly over the North Half of the state as the situation evolves.

In that regard, warnings and another tornado watch could be issued by later this morning to extend toward the sunset hours for a portion of the state. For now, those red boxes seem only to me in regard to latest guidance to be the most likely candidate areas, although a watch box would likely  if issued, be much larger. Heaviest rainfall TOTALS for this even appear will be along and north of I4 toward NE Florida but brief and heavy amounts could occur in the heavier storm cells.

Note, as mid-level winds to the lower levels  increase, any storm could produce very strong wind gusts and temporarily strong straight line winds over 50mph (but as always, refer to official sources).

BEYOND: Not much change in reasoning until Andrea clears the deck. Chances of thunder and much better sky conditions tomorrow and through the weekend with a chance of thunderstorms by earlier in the afternoons. By MOnday, it appears most storm activity will be sea breeze convergence related, inland areas.

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