|Early Morning Radar shows what was referred to in previous|
posts as a 'pseudo warm front and cold front' (2-3 days ago) possibility.
Several Tornado warnings and some occurrences are in place as I type
|SPC is watching this area so far today as of early morning, but this might be changed in their next update (SPC - Storm Prediction Center located in Norman, OK)|
Andrea, as it is, is expected to take the general course of the GFS proposed several several days ago which comes close to the ECMWF and the Canadian as well. Andrea might increase in strength just a bit then expand and weaken at the surface after exiting the Loop Current region, but that expansion would only serve to increase the tornado potential, especially over the East half of the state. An upper level negatively tilted trough will eventually catch hold of the storm, but that negatively tilted trough across the peninsula will only aid in increasing wind shear and helicity, mostly over the North Half of the state as the situation evolves.
In that regard, warnings and another tornado watch could be issued by later this morning to extend toward the sunset hours for a portion of the state. For now, those red boxes seem only to me in regard to latest guidance to be the most likely candidate areas, although a watch box would likely if issued, be much larger. Heaviest rainfall TOTALS for this even appear will be along and north of I4 toward NE Florida but brief and heavy amounts could occur in the heavier storm cells.
Note, as mid-level winds to the lower levels increase, any storm could produce very strong wind gusts and temporarily strong straight line winds over 50mph (but as always, refer to official sources).
BEYOND: Not much change in reasoning until Andrea clears the deck. Chances of thunder and much better sky conditions tomorrow and through the weekend with a chance of thunderstorms by earlier in the afternoons. By MOnday, it appears most storm activity will be sea breeze convergence related, inland areas.