"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, May 6, 2019

Risk of Marginal to Pulse Severe Storms Once Again

TODAY: A few subtle changes from yesterday's premises (that can make a much larger difference in the scheme of things) appears to be underway from what earlier guidance would left one to think.

As referred to the other day, a mid level trough was premised to slide south of Central Florida by this morning leaving much of 'dead Central' just that. Dead to storms today due to it being too dry aloft; however, given the latest actual sounding out of KSC and model trends, such is not the case at all.

There is still sufficient moisture availability as far north as I-4 and it appears that 'nearly' enough will continue to be at play at least into early afternoon that far north.

Model guidance , especially short-term model runs are consistently showing enough surface based instability and moisture to be in place , if not all day, from nearly all of Brevard County south to Dade.

Temperatures aloft are a bit similar to yesterday as far as it being cold enough aloft to perpetrate strong updrafts along with some dry slots to motivate more potent ones, and mid-level lapse rates look to be running perhaps a tad more favorable for storms today to make up for a slight warming at 500mb (20,000 ft). The overall 'areal coverage region wide'  of instability, however, does not appear to be as great.

On the other hand, sea-breeze development up and down the east-coast looks much more likely than it did yesterday with the morning starting out with very light winds at the surface (though westerly all locations). 

The KSC sounding does show 18 kts of WSW winds around 4000 ft, but below that they are less than 10kts which a sea-breeze could over-come, especially after 1pm though it might be a shallow one. The sea breeze front is where the best low level converge can occur initially , thus resulting in upward momentum. Resulting outflow boundaries from earlier activity coming together along with the sea breeze is likely going to be where the real 'threat' will lie (perhaps Southern Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie counties ).

Strongest of storms will not really get going it appears until after 1-2pm, with a convective temperature of 89F. But again, it is where boundary mergers occur a couple hours later that will tell the story in full. Do note that the NWS has mentioned a reference to 'possible funnel clouds' and 'small hail' with the greater threat again today being wind gusts.

There is some question, however, as to how strong activity will be for Central and North Brevard.

 That far north is the area that has been in question in regard to whether it would rain there at all or not today, that is at least (in the bloggers view) until early this morning, and now especially mid-morning it does appear even that far north could see a 'strong storm'. 

One of the short-term models has very emphatically been implying some of the first activity of the day will go up near 'The Cape' and that storm when finally collapsing would send an outflow boundary southward and scour out much of the surrounding arear within 20-30 miles (perhaps)  - despite otherwise favorable conditions.  

On the other hand, if that does not occur then even a region as far north as SR 50 could be in the park for a 'stronger' type storm especially along the US1 corridor from near Port St John southward.

Below is the Blogger's 'Guess with a Stretch" (to include North Brevard or an area north of South Melbourne).  

(NOTE: The official forecast out of the MLB NWS is not calling for any storms today north of Melbourne as of earlier this morning)

For BLOG Purposes Only, Writer's   'Best Guess at 9AM''

Storm Prediction Center's Outlook at 8:00AM

All in all, apart from the above mentioned, the better chance for 'strong' storms will be along the east coast today, with mainly showers some developing into 'thunder' approaching from the west by noon time (first Lake/Polk) counties, for example

Strongest storms will be after 3pm - 6:45pm from Brevard to Dade Counties, with 'enviably' a 'mystery storm' perhaps evolving somewhere in St. Lucie/Martin Counties near Lake Okeechobee for  those so inclined to witness a 'good storm'.

BEYOND: The rest of the week continues to be dry and warm, even much warmer come Friday through the weekend when  the risk of even then, only perhaps an isolated storm could come above, but in general, next weekend looks dry with summer like warmth (but not quite the humidity).

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