"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Best Rain Chance for Remainder of April 'May' End Up Being on Friday

"Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral" 

TODAY; Status quo with onshore breeze today from the east. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a somewhat organized line of north/south oriented low level cumulus rapidly approaching Eastern parts of North Central as of 1PM . The line at time was about 80 miles off shore. It will be interesting to see if that line of clouds is associated with a 'wind surge' or uptick of wind strength if it makes it to the coast  which, if so,  would occur some time between 2-3PM. Otherwise, dry other than maybe some spotty showers inland mainly later today.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Wind will eventually begin to turn more southerly overnight as a weakening cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. Latest GFS has been consistent with past several runs and broad-brush coverage of light rain mainly chances beginning early afternoon over much of the state but earlier on parts of far Southeast Florida and much of the panhandle. 

Several runs of the NAM and GFS both have showed some decent low to mid level Positive UVV (upward vertical motion) though mid-level lapse rates were showing to be fairly meager. Regardless, best chance of low level convergence in the presence of 'some CAPE' with cold air aloft might warrant a thunderstorm chance almost anywhere along the Panhandle but moreso along the  Florida east coast, especially from Brevard County Northward.  SPC has a 'Marginal Risk ' penciled in for the Panhandle tomorrow as a side-bar note. 

Was tempted to put in 'isolated strong possible along the east coast but lack of higher CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy ) values put the damper on that call, at least for this day's post.

Otherwise, chance of a period of EITHER increased cloud cover to overcast or light to moderate rain , even a thunderstorm. This would be desirable though considering we are about at the peak of the Dry Season and the fact that the long range GFS is not even at this point pretending that it could rain for another week going into the first couple of days of May. 

Temperatures throughout the period appear  will continue to be running near normal (though mornings  a bit above normal for this time of year ).

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