|Soaking Up Sunday Morning For All It's Worth|
Latest surface analysis and satellite/radar animations clearly show a surface - to up through at least 5000 ft - low west of Jacksonville rotating nearly in place. Surface winds in response are from the northerly component immediately to the west of the low center while across Central they are mainly SW -SSW and breezy especially portions of Central Florida. Further toward far South Florida there is little in the SWs to speak of if not already an east coast sea breeze.
Morning sounding showed though somewhat drier air across South Florida though the temperatures aloft strangely came in much cooler than expected. This coupled with greater instability and better chance of Lake and Sea Breeze mergers might herald a better chance for Stronger Thunder later today.
Further north SW winds appear will prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of Ft Pierce (in general). Best chance for showers 'per se' but also some thunder along the east coast later today though that is not to say that some thunder could not occur any where mainly south or near of the I-4. Winds quite breezy in the immediate vicinity of rains : thunder or no thunder.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: For now will take it on the daily basis so not going to get into finer details today. All in all it still appears that perhaps either Monday or Tuesday might be a bit of an 'early onset' type of day with more areas at least receiving measurable rainfall but again not all guidance is in agreement . Over all though, the sea breeze might not be able to kick in once again along East Central on Monday. Better chances of thunder then would be Tuesday (other than some 'rumbles') and/or Wednesday.
Steering from the SW begins to decrease even more notably by Wednesday so that in toward the weekend most of the rains will occur away from the immediate coasts. Eventually an overall more easterly flow is seen to appear around late week into next weekend leaving the coasts dry other than perhaps the onset of some early day coastal showers.