"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Chance of Showers/Thunder (Isolated Strong) Today

Sunrise Monday Morning
TODAY: Changes to the overall 'scheme of things' at hand to commence during the mid-late morning hours. Temperatures aloft will decrease (become much cooler) as the influence of an upper level trough down the east side of the country becomes the ruling influence as opposed to warm temperatures aloft that were present under the reign of a high pressure ridge. As a result, the capping aloft which prevents rising motion will no longer be an issue that prevents showers from forming.

With cooling aloft, ample low to mid level moisture, and convergence along sea breeze / lake breeze boundaries we should be able to get showers and storms to manifest today. Much rain is needed to alleviate the now 'severe to extreme drought' conditions across a large portion of Central Florida.

Recent short term guidance implies even a rather 'early onset' as meaning beginning around 2pm near Eastern Osceola or Western Brevard County as well as up by NE Florida and far SW Florida as well. Exactly when activity generates and where might determine where any stronger storms will end up being later. 

If any area has a storm 'earlier on' is unlikely that same area would see the chance of a 'stronger storm' later as the area will have already been worked over (stabilized by rain cooled air).

Steering today will be slowly toward the east coast, with the best chances of rain being experienced at the beaches proper from Indian River County and North (though only in spotty fashion).  Many areas will not see rain today as well, especially near and west of Route 27. The stronger storms would like be a bit in from the coast nearer to the I95 region or even further into the interior.

The only fly in the ointment is a thin layer of cirrus clouds evident on infrared satellite imagery as of 545AM (see below). These aren't going away any time soon, but would watch to see if those wouldn't point toward a later storm / shower onset that guidance implies.

WEDNESDAY: So far, guidance points to a near carbon copy of today, but with perhaps a slightly higher coverage of activity.

BEYOND: Things begin to change mainly in regard to 'where' rain will fall, with a shift more toward the interior alone, and eventually (perhaps more toward the west side of the state. The models have been deviating a bit though in many regards in terms of exactly how much high cloud coverage there will be going into the weekend.

 Numerical output reads 50/60% chance of rain..but are they seeing moisture related to high clouds? Too soon to say. As noted yesterday, the rain chances even get a boost heading into the first week of June around the 3rd or 4th but am skeptical at this point.

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