"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

"Chance?" of Some Strong Thunderstorms Today and Numerous Showers

Image depicts a fairly deep east coast sea breeze could be forming as of 2pm. Storms
over North East Florida seem to have been triggered by higher low level instability combined with a bubble of upper level divergence aloft resulting in an upward vacuum early this afternoon. Otherwise, it appears all of South Florida will begin to 'fire up' in the next 2 hours, if all holds true to form per model guidance due to greater instability in this area as well 
TODAY: A frontal boundary that has been meandering toward the western Florida Panhandle seems to be 'fizzling' a bit, in regard to how well defined it was 2 days ago. Wind fields at all levels below 20,000 ft are 10kts or less, but much stronger higher up. Latest LDIS and guidance shows (and has been showing all day so far) a 'donut hole' of greater stability across Central due to early high level cloudiness that is only now beginning to clear on out. This area remains a bit of "??" this afternoon in regard to 'will storms truly be able to fire there?". It appears that any activity from North Florida as well as South Florida could send outflows into that region, so that storms there will run later in the day after peak heating. 

So, with a bit of hesitation, but owing solely on model guidance consistency (other than one of them), willing to hedge in on the storms gathering momentum in number in the next hour or so (currently it is just after 2:25pm) over North and South Florida , but with the strongest of storms forming after 4:30-5:oopm in the 'questionnable zone' of Central and South Central toward Lake Okeechobee southward into Palm Beach County.  I see why guidance is heding on the East Central Area being 'out' today for storms based on the morning KSC sounding. It's a matter of whether or not it was a small or large area that showed unfavorable storms as well as whether or not those conditions remain there and all of central all day long, which is a big unknown. 

The east coast sea breeze at this hour does not appear to be yet past I-95, and the west coast one has begun as of the last hour per visible satellite image animations. Things can change quickly though, as it has done in the past, with the east coast breeze suddenly gaining momentum after 4pm and pushing well inland.

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold enough to result in storms with small hail, and a quick down burst or even microburst of strong winds central, where there is a low level dry layer. ON THE OTHER HAND, that drier layer, should it remain (and at this hour it is shown in short term LDIS, Local Data Integration System as well as the RAP (the new Rapid Refresh model) guidance as a higher Level of Free Convection (LFC) unfavorable for storm formation. 

There are times that activity simply cannot manifest in such an environment until after dark or not at all. Giving the models the benefit of the doubt though, should those factors improve, the best chance of those stronger storms will be along the Sea Breeze merger then back eastward in subsequent outflow / post sea breeze environments toward I95 if not US1 from Brevard County Southward.

Activity it appears will be sapped out early on this evening by 8-9pm, wherever that may happen to be...likely South Central or South Florida.

Red is where some of the higher chance of a pulse strong storm could occur, not to discount anywhere else within the orange zone however.  Again, The region across all of East Central remains just a bit in question, and therefore remains the 'wild card' out, or Ace of Spades for the Strong Storms winner's circle. 
TUESDAY/FRIDAY: Appears that within the time frame of Thursday or Friday the frontal boundary (not shown) remains will work toward Central and become drawn out and possibly dissolve. Much depends on what happens toward the Yucatan Peninsula. 

Guidance has been hinting at low pressure forming in that area with an inverted trough forming northward from it, possibly enhanced by the unstable waters of the Loop Current of the eastern Gulf. Should the frontal boundary latch on to that boundary further southward progression of the front should cease, and equally allow moisture from the Caribbean to converge along it resulting in over night toward early day showers and thunder working westward into the interior and west side later in the day. Much to be resolved in those regards.

Otherwise, although it appears this could be a day by day deal to determine if or if not there is a decent shot at storms each day, at time that appears to be the case. The main factors that would negate such chances would be higher level clouds early in the day which would prevent low level instability to mount up for storm developments. On the otherhand, should a scenario as just described formulate, rain chances will remain in the cards for folks somewhere/sometime well into next week. Much depends on the strength of the front and how far south it other words, who knows.

Surface Boundary could be in this area by Friday with mid level moisture being drawn northward


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