"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Showers/Thunder Possible by MidAfternoon Becoming Strong Late Afternoon

CURRENT CONDITIONS AT 11AM EDT: Air mass over North Central Florida ahead a weak boundary, possibly a remnant outflow boundary from yesterday, is located across North Central Florida. Remnant mid-upper level moisture seems to be pooling ahead of that boundary resulting in a moderately unstable atmosphere. A less unstable atmosphere resides over South Florida. The most STABLE area if over Southern Brevard toward West Palm Beach this hour.

CURRENT: Main frontal boundary is north of Florida, while a weaker boundary, perhaps a remnant of yesterday's convection that was across North Florida, resides across northern portions of North Central Florida. Winds are from the west in general with a WNW-NW steering flow. North Central Florida is becoming moderately to strongly unstable toward the west side of the state where a cumulus cloud field is increasing in amount and coverage the past 2 hours. Less cloud coverage, unlike the past two days, is over South Florida.
In essence, many of the factors that are currently in place at this time are what I've been expecting to find since Sunday for this time of day today, so not much change in previous thinking is in store.

Otherwise, I can see some fire (smoke) on visible satellite imagery and even radars in SE Georgia, another in Southern Volusia, and one or two more. The smoke from these fires is reducing visibility to  various degrees and creating a 'smokey smell' down stream of the lower to mid-level winds of these areas along the east side of the state. This smoke can be a limiting factor for storms today; however, it can create 'arcing' of lightning into precipitation free areas. 
BEWARE OF NEARBY STORMS AND DARKENING SKIES TODAY. Even without rain, 'dry lightning' is possible.

TODAY: HOT today most everywhere with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs inland and low-mid 90Fs along the east coast in some spots. I do believe an East Coast sea-breeze will be able to form during the mid-late afternoon in most areas (sooner over the barrier islands), but will remain close to the coast.  Due to the prevalent area of unstable air over North Central Florida...combined with higher overall moisture content..combined with recent indications that this area is moving little through mid-morning...storms/ showers could from in this area as the West coast sea breeze presses eastward. The best chance for stronger storms will be south of the surface boundary (which should press a bit south today and wash out) which will be just along an east/west line very close to just north of the Beach Line.

The strongest storms should form after the east coast sea-breeze has become established toward the east side of the state later this afternoon east of the Florida Turnpike toward US1, possibly affecting some of the barrier islands as well.  The atmosphere over Indian River, Martin, St. Lucie, and Southern Brevard at this hour is much like that which existed yesterday over Central Florida, That is, very stable in comparison.  However, this area could either a) become more unstable late this afternoon; or 2) have storms roll into these areas later today (after 5-6pm) with the steering currents in place.  Forecast soundings have been showing a bit of an "A-Type" or "Inverted V" profile, although not classic, these can lead to very strong winds at the ground as cold air falls through a drier layer near the surface. Storms during the collapsing phase can also produce some small, pea-sized hail (at least).

Some strong to pulse severe storms are possible later today into the early evening. A lot today will depend on whether mid-late afternoon storms can even form at all. If they form earlier, activity could become widely scattered along the east and south halves of Florida by 6pm. Otherwise, should activity not be able to initiate, activity will be more isolated very nearer the east coast from Central Brevard to Miami from 5pm -10pm.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Even more complex will become an issue with the Lake Okeechobee 'shadow effect'. Storms could become strong in this area as well after 5pm along either northern or southern (or both) bounds of the shadow...depending on where it ends up or how it moves.  Believe storms over Southern Portions of this area might be a bit higher based due to the lack of moisture in place at this hour which probably will not modify enough by later today, except over Central Palm Beach to Dade Counties.

NORTH FLORIDA: Not to leave North Central out all together, the area near the St John's River from near St. Augustine toward Ormond Beach could see 'A" isolated strong./marginally severe storm during the early evening as well after a full day of temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs and increasing instability after 5-6pm. This activity could roll into NW-Central Volusia Counties along and east of I-95.

SIDE NOTE 1: Contingent upon when activity begins to develop mainly from Orlando and east...some areas might receive rain more than once today.

SIDE NOTE 2: Should activity become relatively strong along the East Coast during the mid-late afternoon, outflow boundaries could initiate an even stronger round of storms toward Orange/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties from 6pm - 9pm. Especially considering that by this time frame steering should becoming more from the NNW-N with time. As such, inland areas might receive, per note 1, more than one round of rain today.

WEDNESDAY: Not much change in thinking from yesterday. Isolated to scattered storms inland and toward the west side of the state, with storms toward Lake County very late toward early evening.

No comments: