"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, February 10, 2018

Above "Normal' Temperatures Continues into Next Week / Chance of Central Thunder Sunday

"Jacob" (or Jake) near Port Canaveral Jetty - 2015 Early February
TODAY: Not much discernible change in the overall weather scheme other than rising dew-points. Early Saturday morning dew-points near the east coast were in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs. 

With increased moisture will be an increased 'mugginess' especially notable in the mornings for some time to come. 

Afternoon highs west of US1 in the lower 80Fs with highs approaching the mid-80Fs in more interior locations possible almost anywhere. Coolest afternoon highs near the immediate coast, depending on how long before the east coast sea breeze sets in, but in general beaches will see upper 70Fs until that time, at which point they will go down as wind blows across ocean temperatures now running in the mid 60Fs.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary stretched SW to NE across the Deep South will set the stage for wide spread rain and cloud cover, with some thunder possible mostly across the West Half to Third of the Florida Panhandle later today / tonight.

SUNDAY: Again, not much change as frontal boundary begins to stall before reaching Florida. Wind will be more southerly and light, though with the upper trough making it's closest 'approach' to the Peninsula mid-level winds will have gained  more of a SW to NE steering flow. 

The east coast sea breeze will work inland but may not much make it more than 30-40 miles inland of the east coast (South of I-4) 

Best convergence of sea breezes with light to moderate surface based instability could yield boundary driven showers and maybe even some thunder 'somewhere' within the region shown below. 

The best chance of thunder will be very close to the region of low level surface temperature contrasts which will be ahead of the sea breeze, thus over the 'interior' in general. With the steering from SSW-SW toward the east coast some activity might be able to reach even the beaches toward to after dark. The risk of 'thunder' by that time might be minimal as low - mid level lapse rates look quite week, not strong enough to support updrafts as is currently being shown. Surface based instability (CAPE) will be running around 1000 j/kg (compare to summer months when it runs between 2800 - 4000 j/kg). Additionally, any shower or storm activity approaching the east coast will be riding over much cooler surface temperatures (courtesy of the cool ocean temperatures) which likely would put the kibosh on any activity attempting to reach the coast.

The NAM model is not nearly as generous with the 'rain coverage', showing a storm closer toward interior Volusia County and others possible more toward SW Florida. On the other hand, the GFS has consistently been favoring 'mainly' south of I4 toward the interior with a drift to the immediate east coast after dark.

So for now, just drew an 'overall and in general' image for where rain/thunder might occur late Sunday into the evening.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Little change in overall temperature scheme, with the interior (or region west of US1) much warmer than the 'immediate beach' going into mid-later afternoon once sea breezes develop. 

Warmest temperatures likely 20 miles from any coast, not to say that all areas won't  be a bit above normal. If there is to be any 'records' broken, morning warm minimums   seem more likely, especially at the beaches; however, since the officially recorded locations that establish the norms/records in those locations are non-existent there will be no way to know if indeed, record warm minimums have been set at the beaches, so we'll have to rely on other sparsely official sites such as Melbourne / Ft Pierce / Vero Beach (at least as far as the east coast is concerned). Otherwise, afternoon maxes will be a challenge. In past years we have seen upper 80Fs set as records going back up to 60 years ago. Regardless...

Chance of shower or even thunder  continues for a region north of I-4 such as in Lake County up toward the Ocala Region (interior North Central to NW Interior Florida) Monday or both days.

MIDWEEK - FRIDAY: Dryer weather with little to no chance of rain with temperatures continuing as already discussed. 

Though a front may will slide down the state  Wednesday no rain is anticipated with it, and only slight cooling will be noticed from it, especially on Thursday morning; even so, morning lows will still be in the lower -mid 60Fs for areas at the beaches Central Florida and south with the interiors noticing more of the 'drop' which will still result in above normal morning lows.

Quick recovery on temperatures though 'alqd ' (All Quadrants) come Friday.

Latest guidance now shows it could be warmer even into all of next weekend, but previous guidance was not so generous. 

Too far out to say for now.

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