"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 1, 2019

Some Locally 'Strong' Thunderstorms Possible East Half of State

TODAY: What a difference a day makes ! There was one bona fide 'severe' thunderstorm yesterday in Volusia County over the peninsula  that  produced hail up to 1.00" briefly. The storm came and went in an hour and a half. Today looks like a different deal, that is, more of the same possible but greater in coverage (and possibly strength).

Situation: Much more moisture across the boards and up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Instability is already much greater than it ever got yesterday before noon time, with lifted indices around  -4 to -6 and likely will 'increase' (yesterday, the lifted index was close to non-existent).

Upper level temperatures are not all 'that cold' however, but cool enough combined with some support of mid level lapse rates north of SR 60 to take note on. Low level lapse rates? No problem...they seldom are in the summer over Florida except on cloudy days. There is also some effective shear in the upper levels across mostly the south half of the state. Sum total, different parts of the state have various parameters working for them to support thunderstorms for varying reasons.

The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh indicates that later in the day 'bulk shear' will be greatest from the surface on up into the atmosphere along to east of the East Coast Sea Breeze, namely from just west of I-95 and points east. Hence, would watch for a surprise, 'strong storm' especially in that area (nearer the coast line from Northern Volusia south toward Palm Beach County). Some storms could be prolific lightning makers though those will be quite isolated in nature, as would any 'hail producer'.

 At time, the NWS nor  The Storm Prediction Center is making a call for 'strong storms' explicitly, but would keep an eye out today to the west through west-northwest as that is the direction from which storms will be moving today just in case, and prepare for strong wind gusts in or near the vicinity of certain storms.

Activity could last well past sunset in some locations, that is, up through 9pm, but the strongest will occur with boundary interactions from previous shower/storm activities which establish  new activity along the east coast sea breeze just as it is to meet up with the west coast seabreeze. Said activity might move eastward, but would also follow a path outlined by some other boundary already laid up by a previous storm or rain shower as well; thus storm motion might be a bit erratic especially on the stronger storms that really get rooted up into the upper atmosphere and take more of 'right turn' toward the Southeast direction.

SUNDAY: More storms are anticipated, but the exact location and nature of them will have to wait until tomorrow. Coverage is not expected to be as great on Sunday either (not that it will be all that great today though either).

BEYOND: A drying out period is anticipated until the next weakened cold front moves southward and into Florida; it is these 'weakened frontal boundaries' that supply the necessary moisture to give rise to the cloud cover and likewise, storm activity.

NOTE: The Wet Season , in  the bloggers opinion, is yet to be seen..that is a 'typical afternoon thunderstorm cycle on a near daily basis' is not yet on the horizon. Perhaps going into the second or third week of June though, by then , we will see it.

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