Images: Temperature plot shows the warm result of non-ocean winds, dry air precedes cold front, solid zonal southern branch jet for a week ahead
Things turned out even rosier than thought yesterday. As expected, the prefrontal trough went through this area with literally no fanfare...not even a drop of rain in the gauge. This was a tough call as the official offices were advertising possible tornado weather. Sometimes holding hard to the gun and not pulling the trigger pays off -- sometimes. Yesterday was very cool here along the beach temperature wise, in fact it was cooler here than most locales in the Panhandle. Such is not to be the case today. The 'cold front' (if you want to call it that) has yet to enter the picture ...as can be seen by the hand drawn depictions above. The wind has shifted to a more westerly component which is across land and not cold ocean waters. As a result the temperature has risen 7 degrees between 2am and 6am in the process, whereas on the west side of the state (now under the influence of the chillier Gulf of Mexico waters) the temperature has held steady or fallen. Such will be the course of the day throughout as well.
Today: Expect the morning to start out cloudy with warm and somewhat gusty SW winds (all day) with the temperature getting to be the warmest we've seen on this side of the state since the New Year reaching into the mid-upper 70s. The winds will be tricky out there so be careful when crossing the causeways and particularly if you're planning any boating activities. High pressure is approaching from the western Gulf during the next 24 hours, and the closer it gets the more the wind will subside and gradually veer to a more westerly direction and eventually a light NW direction then near calm Tuesday morning. Cloudy skies this morning should yield to scattered mid-level clouds by afternoon under otherwise abundant sunshine as I believe much of the cloudiness will mix out with heating along with the ensuing dry air as indicated by the attached water vapor imagery. (the dry air is that red color)
Monday-Late Wednesday: This period will be completely uneventful with little to write or be concerned about. Our weather will be solely dictated by the strong latitudinal zonal jet stream flow (as shown) aloft and high pressure at the lower levels. Monday and Tuesday look to be supreme! About the only thing worth mentioning is that along with the zonal flow comes high level jet stream cirrus...which is already being observed entering Old Mexico and headed our way. By later Tuesday, as high pressure moves off the east coast, the wind will swing around to a somewhat easterly component (albeit light) which will tamper down afternoon high temperatures ...especially east of US1. That, in combination with periods of enhanced cirrus, could make it feel just a tad below totally comfortable. Complain, complain. Give me something to gripe about it , and I'll grab it and run. Otherwise, nothing to complain about.
Thursday-Friday: The first in a serious of a 'mile long train' of systems being ejected out of a huge circus of Pacific systems will develop along the southern branch jet and pass through with a quick shot of rain showers. Thunder is highly questionable as is the timing of exactly when this 'quickie' will pass, given it's so far out and already there is disparity among the models (as one would expect anyway). They are currently showing Thursday, but the ECMWF is already slower than that which I tend to believe, given how it handled this last system (good bye system). All in all, there is no major system to affect our area for the next 7-10 days. Temperature wise we will be hanging right around, if not a tad above, normal. Am I hearing THAT right?!
Cool mornings, pleasant afternoons to reign supreme more or less all week. Just might want to keep an ear perked beginning Wednesday night to see what's what in the weather department. One thing's for sure, we can pack away the gloves and scarves for a while. Once we make it through the next month, we're pretty much in the clear for any prolonged cold spell for the winter of 2010.