|Debby At a Stand Still. Details of graphic below.|
1140 PM TORNADO 5 WNW PORT SAINT JOHN 28.51N 80.87W 06/24/2012 BREVARD FL PUBLIC PUBLIC SIGHTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF I-95 AND SR50.
And, per NHC (The Hurricane Center)
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
Do note the mention above of a Col-Region. This was referred to on Friday as "No Man's Land" in that post. And so it is, this was per the GFS model, which again though was and can always remain in question. Today's post is for worst case scenario instead of beating around the bush. Just to be sure we are on uncertain terms, but on no uncertain terms should we bury heads in the sand either.
As can be seen, the hurricane centers watched area in the top image is the area in blue. It would behoove us not to watch for Debby to take a loop and drop a bit to the south if it does not move onshore in the coming day or two. As a precautionary measure, there is a tornado watch in affect.
|CURRENT WATCH AREA, COULD BE EXTENDED|
Note also a potential 'other track' Debby Could Take as shown by the yellow bounds crayoned in. Not a forecast, only a consideration of the GFS model. It has been showing something between going from near or just north of I-4 to along Dead Central several times now in the past 3 days over 12 model runs, so very hard to ignore. And who knows, it could drop even further south than that. The point is, if the current model run that is shown verifies, the Tornado Threat alone will get greater, and not less. On the other-hand, if the storm lifts more quickly off to the ENE-NE, the threat decreases. OR..if it moves more toward the NW..there is zero concern for much of the state.
Any strengthening though looks minimal to non-existent, so the center of the circulation at this time should not be the primary focus . Winds at Canaveral to Patrick last night were the strongest over land in the state, and see how far that location is from the storm. What 'could be' the addition to the storm's effects would be pressure gradient winds combined with winds aloft creating for looping hodographs more than what is already there (rotating storms). The GFS has been maining a 'totally crazy' precipitation bulls eye, six inches of rain up to 10 inches over a 6 hour period two runs in a row now (and not the first times either) for somewhere near I-4 toward The Central Diving Line. Perhaps, the crossing could be as late as Wednesday. It seems to be trending that the longer it waits, the more it will drop south, and the more bizarre the impacts become. On the other hand, should Debby just lift north and be over with....that changes everything.