"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, October 4, 2014

First Front of Season Entering Central, Near Record Lows Possible By Morning

Images from Mesoscale Analysis Page from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
website using the Level Of Free Convection (LFC) Contours to locate front

TODAY: Cold front is located along the boundary between the red and light blue lines across North Central Florida and appears to be even further south than that a bit as of 10AM. This cold front should be near a Cocoa Beach to South Tampa Bay line by around noon time if not a bit sooner. Little chance of rain other than a few spits over Central and maybe a brief shower as was noted near the coast of Canaveral just after sunrise, with the better chance of showers   near and South of Lake Okeechobee due to  onset of better (sunlit) heating with less cloud cover down that way at present time.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday as a result of earlier cloud cover, and full clearing to completion might be totally realized until between 
6 pm - sunset time frame, mainly in the form of remnant lower level clouds skirting by. Sunset could be  a 'novel experience' compared to what we've seen fro the past 4-5 months. 

TONIGHT: The driest of air begins to move in well after dark with outrageously low precipitable water values down toward 1/2" if not less, compared to summer month values of 1.7" - 2.2" inches; this could feel quite dry in relative terms as will the air feel 'quite cool if not too cool' (again, in relative to what we've been accustomed to for months now). 

Should be a great night for opening windows if not a bit too cool to cold depending on the person. Lows could reach near record values most anywhere, as the NWS is mainly eyeing the Daytona Beach Airport region, but other areas could also reach a record low where official readings are not measured from   Southern Lake County and down the west side of Orlando along Route 27 with lows in the lower 50Fs .  Orlando appears to be looking at a 54F - 57F which is close to the record. Immediate east coast beaches from Cape Canaveral and Southward (along A1A) seem to be near 63F but this might be too cold considering the warmth of surrounding waters so still shooting at the classic 67F based on experience since there will be some wind . The less wind, the more likely it would be cooler though.

Front and clearing line positions at 10AM, Saturday Morning

SUNDAY: Quite pleasant but a bit breezy at the beaches and intra-coastal during peak heating hours due to mixing resulting in a northerly wind around 15-20 mph but sunny. Temperatures dropping again after dark to similar values for the most part. I'm thinking the official forecast might be overshooting afternoon highs, but then again, the forecast value of upper 70Fs might be only to last an hour or less..but in average afternoon should be in the 73-76F range  but again warmer waters will add some modification. A nice day to have the windows open.

MONDAY: After another cool start Monday morning the afternoon will warm by about 5 degrees from the previous day.   Not as breezy so nearer to Chamber of Commerce Weather for a classic early fall day wiht images of dancing pumpkins and falling leaves and warly morning sweathers filling the senses. 

TUESDAY-BEYOND: So much for Fall Weather with a return to more normal conditions with highs in the 80Fs and coastal morning lows in the low 70Fs warming to mid-upper 70Fs in the following days. Perhaps showers mainly South Florida working north toward Friday to impact the east coast early morning hours but nothing overly ambitious with near zero thunderstorms except maybe SW Florida late week. So far, not a hint of another cold blast but toward the last week of October though I did read somewhere that the ECMWF model is showing something different next week, but in regard to temperatures at least, I do not know and not much paying heed at this point.

TROPICS: GFS continues to imply something tropical to work north around the 14th -17th of October, but as noted before, this model has done that same several times since May in the extended time frame and look what happened. Nothing. Still worth watching though.  

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