|Zoomed in a bit. Lightning was coming out well to the left and right of the rain core noticeable in the center|
TODAY: Very difficult forecast for today. And no surprise. Recall the model forecasts for today were 'dumped', and it was stated we'd figure it out today?...It is still hard to figure out even at this hour. After looking through overnight guidance, that which came out so far this morning, as well as monitoring actual information using 3 hour animations of the changes since sunrise...today's post is again in lieu of any model. They all agree to disagree concerning where and when it will rain today...if anywhere. Thus, here's the line of thought and how it transpired.
Initially, it looked like good rain coverage over most of the state along and south of I-4 with the most south of Lake Okeechobee oozing into toward East Central and perhaps toward Jacksonville. But....
|Rotating Thunderstorm Off Shore Along the Boundary Across Central Florida|
|The circulation near JAX is evident, and another along the East Central Coast which was on analysis is not evident but drawn in with a question mark. Note how at noon nothing is happening anywhere.|
Finally, the last factor that just became evident is that unlike any model forecast has shown and which explains why nothing is happening, most of the state has become capped in the mid-levels with convective inhibition. Thus, it looks to be another late day to evening rain chance, if any. One model showed close to no rain most anywhere today which might have ended up being right on...
The other 'finally' is that the next trough approaching from the WNW-NW forecast to up the rain chances on Monday might be moving in faster than thought. This could mean less rainfall coverage tomorrow due to the bad timing of its arrival for late day storms (except toward the South Half of the State). Thus, the forecast for Monday is in limbo.
And one more thing while on a roll, so too may be the forecast for Tuesday out to lunch (per TV). Much depends on how strong, big, and in which direction Maria takes in the next 48 hours.
If it stays further to the east than thought, the state might not get into the sinking air surrounding the storm..so there could be some rain chances as shown by the very conservative and unreliable NAM model. The next boundary moving in tomorrow could get hung up across South Central Florida on Monday (in that case) and be a rain player for 'somewhere' for Tuesday, of isolated fashion. Beyond Tuesday, the rain chances dwindle either way with an up tick on the weekend coming up.