"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, May 4, 2019

Chance of Pulse 'Strong/Severe' Storms Today/Sunday

une 6, 2016 from the KSC Visitor's Center
TODAY: Similar temperature/wind regime from yesterday, though suspect it will get warmer today than yesterday with less cloud coverage to start the day. 

Plentiful low - mid level moisture and surface based instability with a near to side-shore 'sea breeze' along the east coast under a prevailing SW-WSW steering flow aloft of about 10 kts (South Central/South) up to at times 23 kts (North Central) could keep the convective train chugging with residual activity after the first thrust of storms manifests lingering toward dark in some areas.

Near to side shore winds combined with outflow boundaries from 'early onset' activity could result in greater low level convergence in the presence of very cool (but not unusually cold) air aloft, combined with per the RAP sounding for KSC (for example) at 4pm of a dry mid level slot , might result in 'small hail' but more certainly wind gusts in the 40+ mph range. There was a 'severe qualified' gust yesterday in activity near Jensen Beach, so would expect a bit more of the same today, if not a bit more active.

As of early today (this writing) , "Prime Time" could commence after 2pm east central as other showery with some thunder activity progresses east ward along the west coast sea breeze, with a collision occurring mainly near to south of I4 around the 4pm time frame. 

Areas that experience 'early onset' (prior  to 4pm) might all out 'escape' any of the stronger activity that would/could have occurred later since those areas would be stabilized by the cooling rains that fall from them (assuming there will be such activity).

Overall 'coverage' of storm activity looks almost certain, mainly for areas over the interior south of I-4. Here is a 'general thunderstorm' coverage outlook generated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), located in Norman , Oklahoma.

Back to home, strongest storms will be capable of frequent lightning. small hail, and strong wind gusts in and near the strongest storms. 

Things should begin to wind down in regard to the stronger activity rather quickly after 5:30- 6:30pm, though expect there could be residual pocket of rainfall to continue in some locations.

The bloggers most 'unofficial outlook' (refer to official sources as usual) is to be watching for strong/pulse severe activity in the 'red' area today.

SUNDAY: This day could be just as active (if not more so) as today. 

Early morning model guidance at least 'suggests' that the 'risk' of stronger storms seems to be even greater, for the same general area as today, though extending further northward to cover all of Volusia if not even Flagler Counties.

Granted , this is subject to change as usual, but it does appear to be that at a minimum, we could expect yet another day of a round of storms , but where specifically any one storm will hit with greater impact is as usual indeterminable.

MONDAY: Risk of stronger activity at this stage diminishes greatly as mid level moisture pooling along a mid level trough pulls off the U.S. East coast and slides south toward Lake Okeechobee. 

Temperatures remaining typically warmest inland. 

Coming days look to get quite warm by Wednesday, especially for the interior with wide spread lower and maybe even some mid-90Fs (?); however, as far as rainfall is concerned, mainly 'dry'.

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