"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 28, 2010

ENE Flow Regime Slowly Becoming Established Today

(Image: Forecast of surface features for Sunday morning from the 8pm run of the NAM are depicted)
RECAP: Glad there was an update to yesterday mornings post because the early-late evening rainfalls definitely occurred over portions of Central Florida yesterday/last night. The heaviest storms were over portions of Lake County and western Orange County with one report of 4.23" which came in from Winter Garden in Orange County....and a special weather statement of a possible funnel was disseminated for one of the Lake County storms. Elsewhere, almost all of Osceola County was eventually encompassed with a broad area of light-moderate rains.  There was one lone heavy shower that passed over North Brevard near Mims/Titusville before sunset. Further west much more rain was to be found with big totals. Some of these rain remnants eventually piddled to the east coast providing for a few rain spits along the immediate coastal communities around midnight. Other activity formed along the immediate east shores of Lake Okeechobee during the mid afternoon hours.
SYNOPSIS: Most notable features this morning are the ever expanding/strengthening high pressure centered over Virginia and a surface/mid-level low just off the Louisiana coast which first made its presence known yesterday along that inverted trough which was extending from the low in the far SW Gulf.  The hurricane center has outlined this low with a very low probability of further tropical development, and all models are depicting this to be the case. Extending from this low is what remains of the stationary boundary which has been over Southern Georgia for quite some time now.  The old circulation of what I've been referring to remnant TD5 is finally gone, or perhaps is what generated that low off Louisiana. Probably not, but just like the number of licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop...the world may never know (who cares anyway...right?). This boundary has sunk south a bit and is now roughly located right along I-10. The southwest flow aloft is gone now for the most part..and mid-level winds over Central Florida are very light. 
LOCALLY: There also appears to be a weak disturbance riding ENE across N. Central Florida  along or just south of the weakening stationary frontal boundary which is accompanied by a fairly extensive deck of cloudiness across the same area from near Brooksville on the West Coast to Ormond Beach on the East Coast. This area of clouds is trying to penetrate toward Orlando but seems to be getting eroded from the bottom up as it reaches Orange County. Further north it is making it to the coast though. The high pressure ridge that was over the Florida Straits is almost overhead and in the process of merging with the high pressure circulation over the mid-Atlantic. I haven't seen a morning sounding as it was not available but I'd be willing to bet that winds wise there isn't much to see that would sway me from making the following forecast for the daylight hours of today.
SYNOPTIC OUTLOOK: The low south of Louisiana will push toward the coast right about where SE Texas and SW Louisiana meet. This will force the stationary frontal boundary northward along with abundant moisture into southern Louisiana, which for the most part has already begun. Hence, some big rains over the toes of the Big Boot State are on-going late this morning and will continue to do so through the day and evening. Meanwhile, further east high pressure will strengthen more along the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coast and expand southward. In turn, the far eastern portion of the stationary boundary along I-10 will inversely push SWard toward the Florida NE Coast and eventually the central portions of the coast over night tonight.  This boundary will washout over southern portions of the state on Monday as the high pressure comes fully under control  by mid-day Monday for the entire peninsula except extreme SW portions.
TODAY: Surface winds across the entire state to assume a generally ENE-Eerly wind component at the surface while mid level winds become light and variable over Central Florida. There is still plentiful moisture. Believe the easterlies will become somewhat enhanced during the afternoon which will be most notable along the A1A corridor up and down the entire Florida Coast which will push without hindrance toward the west half of the state during the course of the day. As such, storms, some with very heavy rains and frequent lightning, will mostly likely affect the Western Half of the state from the Everglades northward to just west of Orange County and over the Tampa Bay region, although western Lake County can't be fully counted out for some of this activity. Expect most of the show to commence in the mid-late afternoon with max storm coverage running from right before sunset through midnight. Further north toward Jacksonville the stationary boundary will start to enter the Jacksonville area as it begins a SSW trek down the coast to well offshore.  Thus, extreme NE Florida will be in the 'muck' of clouds and rains for most of the day.  From Daytona Beach south to Miami it will be a pleasant day other than some rampant coastal showers moving on shore, particularly south of West Palm. Unlike the past two evenings, the activity to the west will not spread eastward. Therefore, for the most part all of East Central/South Florida will remain dry all day into tonight.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY: NOT a beach day from Brevard and points north tomorrow but nice for the attractions inland. The backdoor boundary of sorts will remain to the north, but slowly increasing easterlies off shore could push some nocturnal rain showers on to the coast from the Cape northward. The likelihood of this evolution increases around sunrise and increases even more as we work toward noon. The front shown in the attached image which was derived from the NAM model is probably a little over done, but you get the gist. It's likely this boundary will never make a clean passage over the area at the surface, but rather simply become absorbed in the deepening ENE-E flow aloft late in the day.  The morning NAM is consistent though with maintaining somewhat elevated rain chances  throughout the daylight hours from Brevard County northward. This does not appear to be an all day rain event, but more of an occasional shower event whereas areas to the west are much more likely to remain dry.  By late in the day showers will spread WSW to the west coast. The best chance of thunderstorms tomorrow will likely be right along the SW Coast of the state where a late afternoon sea breeze could develop and thus low level convergence is established.  It won't only be the chances of rain showers that won't make it a good beach will also be the rip currents and ugly surf (as far as swimming is concerned).
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: The surface boundary, or what remains of it washes out to South Florida while lingering moisture and an onshore wind component maintains a possibility of nocturnal rain showers making landfall all along the east coast which could penetrate well inland. Monday could start out showery but that chance decreases by late in the day.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Pretty darned uneventful with rip currents being the big weather story. Actually, by around Wednesday - Thursday what will be Hurricane Earl could be close enough to the east to place much of the state in subsidence around the storm's periphery making for less clouds but warm inland temperatures.
FRIDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Watching the next tropical system to rotate around the Carousel of Storms which models are portraying to be Storm Friona. Lips might be pursed and brows furrowed as forecasts are showing this system to become quite strong as it approaches the U.S. Coast.
TROPICS/SURFERS: Hurricane Danielle is out of the picture weather wise, but the swells from this storm are beginning to impact the east coast. Looks like the peak of the swells will be later this afternoon into early tomorrow. SURFS UP GUYS! Unfortunately, onshore winds will not provide for the primest of conditions, so hit it early especially Sunday and Monday. It will be totally ride-able though for many days to come so stock up on the Sex Wax.
With Danielle eventually accelerating off to the NE in the open Atlantic eyes will be on what looks to be Hurricane Earl by this time tomorrow. Earl is forecast to move just north of Puerto Rico Sunday into Monday and slowly begin a more WNW (and eventually NW) curve as it does so. The GFS is forecasting Earl to strengthen significantly as it passes north of the island and heads toward the extreme SE Bahamas. The curve would be due to a weakening of the high pressure ridge to its north created by Danielle. If forecast trends continue the ocean swells will be more direct, and thus more impressive than those of Danielle along the East Coast from Florida-Hatteras. Thus, after a decline in the surf early in the week it will again pick up with Earl.
Now, the next pony on the carousel is forecast to be what would be named Friona. This will be THE STORY OF THE DAY if all amounts to what models are depicting. Each successive storm is inching closer to the U.S., and Friona is no different. As it stands now the big threat will be directly on the Carolinas-Virginia. But we know how that goes. Heck, the system as a named entity exist yet...but my bet is we will hearing the name over the air waves within 72 hours. For now it is being described the the Hurricane Center as a "vigorous disturbance". Don't know how 'vigorous' a disturbance can be..but with a high likelihood that it will organize into a tropical low...I guess this cuts the mustard better than describing it as 'mild'.

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