"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Winds To Taper Off Thursday As Chance of Coastal Showers Increases

Latest Satellite Image as of 11AM EST. Note: 1) To the right is the white line delineating a break in cloud types associated with high pressure in the middle levels. Those clouds appear to be missing most of the state north of the line, although an offshoot of them continues to impact the coast which will likely work across the state during the noon hours. 2) The Blue arrows show the motion of some high level cirrus clouds impacting mostly the North 1/3 to 1/2 of the state from time to time. These clouds could increase in days ahead, especially later on Thursday into Friday. 3) The green area is where showers are and could occur today, working north with time (yellow) to as far north as Southern Volusia (light blue) by Thursday noon time. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should persist.

TODAY: Very breezy at the east coast beaches spreading inland during the day. Winds will remain overnight at the beach but be notably less 'breezy' heading toward mid-evening, while they decrease significantly inland and away from the beach. Overnight lows similar to last night with mid-upper 60Fs along the coast and mid-upper 50Fs inland. Showers around the Keys would work north into Dade County later today.

THURSDAY: High pressure NE-ENE of the state in the mid-levels and surface reigns supreme; however, near the 850mb (5000ft) height the ridge will weaken and pull off more to the east of the SE states into the Atlantic and in doing so the wind at this level will become more Southeasterly to SSE and draw the shower generating moisture well to the south of Central northward. 

Expect that moisture convergence along the east coast accompanying this mid-level moisture up through 10,000 feet will potentially have enough atmospheric depth (just as if one were to go deeper into the ocean of water, we can go deeper 'upward' into the depths of atmospheric moisture except it is coming to the east coast instead) .  In turn, showers could form mainly east of and along I-95 and work north toward Southern Volusia perhaps by early afternoon on Thursday. It appears the area further to the west in the state will remain too dry for showers but either way the clouds persist as winds all regions die down even further.  Outside of showers continued warming with highs in the upper70Fs toward lower 80Fs on the west side of the state in particular.

FRIDAY: Higher clouds (the blue arrows) will continue as they ride over a bit of a 'dirty ridge' (the clouds) located well aloft in the atmosphere to the west of Florida. Those cloud will be generated by moisture from a trough located near the Desert SW Region moving into Texas, ejecting high level moisture up and over the ridge and across Florida...thus spillage of high clouds, or 'dirty ridge syndrome'.  Outside of those clouds, the low level ridge will be close to Central Florida with very light winds. Sea Breeze convergence and if enough heating can work in during the day, destabilization enough for a possible thundershower in the Western Orlando area toward Eastern lake County or Northern Osceola County. Sea breeze although light but very cool in comparison to inland highs in the mid 80Fs  on Friday will keep any showers or storm from reaching the east coast with the light steering currents in place by that time as well.

BEYOND: Continued moisture in place over Florida as the frontal boundary which will likely be quite problematic for parts of North and Eastern Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee (in general) becomes stretched from East to west and sinks slowly south toward Central Florida. Showers could be in our area with this boundary as well during at least the first parts of the weekend if not the entire weekend for the north 1/2 of the state (and possibly southward as well) although for now the more likely scenario spells out at least more opportunities for clouds. No cold air yet is on the way!!   

This  boundary might come in to being a big player for a repeat of what we are experiencing today but with rain showers as well. The next boundary behind the forthcoming boundary of this weekend (which will create showers) might not even reach Florida at all.

 Recall: The previous front which made it fairly cool for 36 hours made it to the Florida Straits and washed out (the showers down there today), then the next boundary should make it toward Central (this weekend), then the next one sometime next week not even that far south. Thus, each front is progressively making less southward penetration across the state, and in turn, no cold air.

In closing today's observational and preliminary (and quite unofficial analysis) forecast, I've noted that sea surface temperatures are generally running nearly 5F degrees warmer than they were last year around this time for the area off Cocoa Beach and North.. ..which can be attributed to the fact that this has been a mild winter all along the Eastern United States from North to South.  This could play in to future forecasts as we head toward the last week of March and into April in regard to a number of things yet to be determined.

"Cat Does Not Try To Wise. It is All She Knows"

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