"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Tricky, Tricky

Interesting forecast challenge today. I've monitored the local forecasts and watched The Weather Channel, and have opted to go against the grain today as far as what our weather will be like. Here's the set up and my reasoning.

Low pressure centers over the Bahamas and Louisiana are no longer joined by a weak boundary but rather a low level ridge axis impinging south from the mid-Atlantic area is cutting that boundary in half right over east Florida. This ridge is acting as 'the great divide' at the lowest levels of the atmosphere and creating a relatively drier area just above the surface than the layers lower or above that along the east half of the state . The net affect is that as moisture gets working with the heat of the day and the air is lifted it will pass into this area and no longer be suitable for production of storms. The only area not succumbing to this predator is the extreme west half of the state and areas south of Lake Okeechobee.

Thus, for today I see no rain chance for the Space Coast other than maybe a large cloud that can put out some sprinkles. By late afternoon into early evening those storms that do get cranking up further west will spread out anvil debris in the more moist upper levels of the atmosphere, producing mostly cloudy skies (much like what happened yesterday).

And like was mentioned yesterday, I still don't see that chances of rain will increase for this immediate area until very late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. After that time, the chance for some real storms with colder air aloft seems to be in the cards at this time.