"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 4, 2009

Climatological Chance of "Wet" Today

(pileus clouds from above the top of a building large rain shower over the Banana River, yesterday. Pileus clouds form where humid, stably stratified air is mechanically displaced vertically ahead of rising convection.)

Not much change from days past today. A little deeper analysis of morning data shows the stationary boundary to be in place from just south of a Brooksville to well north of Ormond Beach line. Looks like some fog developed overnight west of US1 and the low clouds streaming across the early morning sky along the coast are the evidence of such (as well as surface observations). Additionally, the KSC morning sounding came in very stable with a low level cap of 2.0 strength (strong). However, moisture at all levels is still in place with a convective temperature of 86 degrees which should get things going with the normal heating of the day.

Unlike yesterday, do not see any real triggers in place for significant convection to get going early. Do believe that with some heating after sunrise and perhaps a weak sea-breeze developing by 11am that some coastal/intercoastal waterway shower activity will get going as the cap erodes. About the only fly in the ointment is just how earnestly the early stuff will materialize..but if that cap does break in a 'sudden' fashion, with such light winds at all levels and ample moisture we might see a funnel cloud from some of the coastal I nearly witnessed yesterday with the cloud tops exhibiting their pileus formations and low, flat dark bases.

It appears from water vapor analysis that the bulk of today's activity will be east of a Sarasota to Flagler County line (as was the case yesterday)...with typical Lake Okeechobee activity to be in full swing, particularly around Ft. Pierce on the east coast. Don't know how well the Tampa area will fare today. It wasn't too great there storm wise yesterday, and what did occur / happened there yesterday was due to a definitive triggering mechanism that arrived too early in the day. But given that this is Florida in the late summer, no holds are barred...especially when it's the Tampa area with a light wind regime!

As the day progresses, expect the sea-breezes on both coasts to make it inland..but not too far. Not sure if they'll actually collide which could further put a damper on things intensity wise. If they do collide it will be along the moisture axis describe earlier along the east 1/2 of the state. Regardless, expect the east coast to be overcome with higher clouds by late afternoon as convection that forms down near the Big Lake and inland disperses its high clouds across the region in the decent SW-SSW flow aloft.

In short, watch for late morning, early afternoon big rainshower activity along the east coast with a funnel possible if it can get going...then a lull in the early to mid afternoon with the typical afternoon 'stuff' going all segments of Central and South Florida after mid-afternoon with the greatest concentration along the east 1/3 of the state after 6pm. Activity will generally struggle to make it to the coast east of US1...but stronger cells that form closer to the coast...near I-95 could well penetrate into the immediate coastal communities.
Oh, almost forgot forlorn Erika. I'm writing her off for now. Either she becomes an entity again and moves N-NE away from the area near the Bahamas, or becomes a non-entity that moves close by with little to no impact...(as of THIS writing :-).

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