Images 2 through 4 (below) (1 is above) and 1 above reflects the upper levels. Not too often we see those purple and red lines overlapped in Florida this time of year...now the lower levels, Surface:
The above image is mainly showing the best wind profiles will be over Central Florida, but greatest instability will likely mount a bit further south of the best winds ...rather..best for manifesting strong/severe storms. Thus, storms could be active out of those winds as well, along the northern side of the Lake Okeechobee shadow'...assuming there is one. If skies stay clearer long enough, a near neutral sea breeze/vs gradient wind could develop at the coast south of MLB Beach. Either way, that should not make a difference. Also to watch, is toward Coastal Palm Beach County.
In summary, the same boundary that absorbed Tropical Storm Lee is moving into North Florida. In fact, the temperature across the panhandle was only 60F last hour or two up there. Meanwhile, the boundary extends well into the Mid-Atlantic states and south toward the Bay of Campeche..but might not get much further east in the next few days. The reason being the approach of Hurricane Katia. High pressure surrounding that system could work as a 'blocking mechanism' preventing further east ward progress of the trough. For Florida (other than the panhandle), it could get as Far South as North or Central Brevard. The NoGAPS, latest GFS, and SREF models agree on this scenario through Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Florida in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today due to winds gusting to in excess of 58mph. There will likely be more fast moving rain showers than thunderstorms...but even heavy rain-showers could generate some gusty winds in the area noted ..which matches closely to the area highlighted in the above images:
|(4) SPC FORECAST from www.spc.noaa.gov|
BEYOND TODAY: Expect that the boundary will work toward Central Florida and struggle against approaching Katia and high pressure beginning to build westward across South Florida in the mid-levels. This in turn would create a 'deformation zone' across Central Florida of closely opposing winds at the same level side by side. Additionally, low pressure development along the far south end of the boundary will generate an area of low pressure in the bay of Campache area which would also slow further eastward progression. Between that area, the deformation zone..and then the remnants of Lee (which is expected to retrograde..or rather, be forced back toward the WNW rather than advancing on to the NE) toward the Ohio Vally.. these three low pressure areas will generate:
A Menage A Trois' of Low Pressure areas:
|IMAGE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY: Strength of low in Bay of Campeche highly uncertain but is not likely to impact Florida directly in the next 5 days, if ever. Note that Former Lee, Katia, and this low are loosely 'connected'.|
FRIDAY: Another Sea Breeze day with SW Steering. Thunder again possible South of Titusville to Miami/ Key Largo Area