"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Similar To Yesterday, Only A Bit Later with Thunder


TODAY (SUNDAY): Looks like a faux repeat of yesterday with the early morning boundary missing that was across Central yesterday. As such, earlier activity at this conjuncture not anticipated (pre-noon) but should see activity appear near East Central by 1-2pm time frame moving toward the beaches. We have clear skies in this location now as of mid morning, but satellite imagery reveals a different story in other locations, so heating and destabilization might take a bit longer to manifest in more clouded regions, thus too later for....the showers and storms as they trek across the state from the west to west south west.

 Perhaps the strongest activity will be off the tip of the Cape and near Vero and Ft. Pierce (where a sea breeze could develop). Elsewhere, any sea breeze from the Cape south will be glued and limited to the A1A Strip Bar to US1 or even i-95 in Palm Beach County. Showers to move off shore, with the strongest activity and propagation resulting in development southward toward North or Central Palm Beach County (at least). Morning soundings show slight warming in the mid levels so severe not likely.

BEYOND: Similar scenario Monday, but as the surface ridge now south of the state attempts to lift north, the low level pressure gradient will weaken and allow the sea breezes to work with each other a bit more. This potential aspect combined with cooler air aloft could result in stronger activity late Monday and/or Tuesday into Wednesday. The front mentioned yesterday now looks like it might not ever make it toward the panhandle.

TROPICS: This general pattern of typically wet season summer weather appears will come toward an end possibly near the end of the week as the GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF to bringing a disturbance toward Cuba and South Florida later on down the line near this time next week or so. What has been showing up as a follow up Hurricane potential seems to have dwindled by the dying embers of the camp fire heat sources in the Atlantic, but who knows what the Witches are Brewing up.  Interestingly though, the tropical wave or depression gets hung up as an inverted trough across Central for several days resulting in tropical like downpours and inches upon inches of rainfall , with a low forming along its NE boundary off the Carolinas. This could easily change in model runs ahead.

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