"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Risk of Severe Weather on Good Friday

Severe Thunderstorm, April 19,  2015 Cape Canaveral (4 years to date of Friday)
TODAY: Continued warm with east wind, highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior,
and lower 80Fs near the coast. Perhaps picking up a bit late in the day into tonight.

THURSDAY: Maundy Thursday's Storm system that is gaining 'infamy' before it has yet to fully take shape (but will later today in Texas and eventually several other states further north) will be progressing eastward.

Temperatures will be running status quo as wind becomes southeasterly  - the GFS model shows a chance of rain showers emerging, (maybe thunder) toward East Central later in the day but whether there will be ample moisture is in question. The GFS has been quite consistent, however, with that potential so can't say we weren't warned. Perhaps it's actually 'seeing' a patch of mid-level clouds rather than 'rain' but will go with the rain chances, though rather small at least as of this point.

GOOD FRIDAY: It's Darkest before the Light of A New Dawn, and no different in this case on this day. 

Though guidance is generally in agreement that the wind fields overhead will be considerably strong, ample enough with enough shear to produce severe category straight line winds or gusts, exactly how strong squa all line will be when it gets south of generally a Tampa toward Daytona Beach line is in question. 

Regardless, as seen by the latest SPC (Storm Prediction Center's) outlook, no point in being conservative this day. The weaker wind fields do seem to remain across South Florida as all models show though, and as depicted by the 'lower to no risk' zone for far South Florida (image below).

Though the "Threat being Denoted" (below) is for the 'Main Show' (or what is left of it as the system moves across the state after noon time) there is a  'Concern' for activity that "might' develop many hours out ahead of it (more below).

 Late Morning through Early Afternoon FRIDAY:

There is an ever small chance worth watching for, that activity could develop mainly near the Florida east coast come mid-late morning and quickly translate off shore. 

The Latest NAM Model (though it can get extreme) and a bit less the GFS hint that storms could form mainly near to east of I95.

The concern is that at that time, and given the NAM is now showing more Instability from previous runs and coming closer to the GFS, that anything that 'goes up' at the time could rotate as the wind fields earlier in the day are not as unidirectional  from the surface up through the mid levels as they will be later in the day, but rather have a bit of a 'turning with height'. 

The winds at the lowest levels will likely be 'quite breezy' early in the day (and all day for that matter on Friday) but be running  nearly parallel to the coast earlier on whereas with every given hour the winds overhead will be increasing from the SSW-W in the mid-upper levels. 

Temperatures aloft will also be cooling during this time frame with ample moisture sliding into place 'just in time' for a fuse to blow.

 Hence, for BLOG PURPOSES ONLY at this point, would be watching the skies from 10AM Friday near the east coast  mainly South of I-4 / along and east of I95  -- especially   Coastal Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie Counties for a quick storm to go up. No guarantees anything will form but the risk is there.

LATER FRIDAY: The 'Main Storm System' of Infamy by this time will have crossed the Panhandle and be moving eastward across the state. How much 'punch' is left of it is yet to be seen, though hints are 'the worst' of it might not be as bad as winds aloft suggest could be. Regardless, bulk shear and sufficiently cold air aloft at this time of year are nothing to mess with and The Storm Prediction Center (and National Weather Service are messing with this one).  Let it be known, and respectable storm with the winds that will be aloft on Friday with the Main System could easily be 'damaging' in nature. 

Advise having a TV station or some form of social media (preferably with warning capability) at hand Friday) until the 'all's clear' which appears would be well before sunset.

SATURDAY - EASTER SUNDAY: Clearing skies and a bit breezy but dry Saturday. Cool in the morning warming into the mid-upper 70Fs.

EASTER SUNRISE:  Wind by this time will have died down considerably. Temperature at the beaches for Sunrise Services appear will be near 60F give or take 3 degrees. It will warm up rapidly by mid-morning well into the upper 70Fs with light wind all day.

BEYOND: Very pleasant spring weather once again the first half of next week.

 So far it appears the next chance of rain, perhaps thunderstorms, emerges come Thursday and/or Friday as a 'short wave trough' passes mainly north of the state, but with enough effects to result in "cold air aloft and instability at the surface with the west coast sea breeze being the dominant player as it pushes to meet a near-shore east coast seabreeze'. 

Too soon really to know that will be the situation, and timing is still up in the air, but it does look like one or both days could 'produce' a storm or two. Perhaps strong.

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