"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

"It's Almost Here!" Frozen Precipitation in Panhandle Now

Current 4PM Position of Front. Last hour there was as much as a 50F degree
temperature spread between the Pensacola region and Orlando

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY:  Not too much of a change from previous post other than when the best chance of truly measurable rainfall might occur. As can be seen above, the cold front is on its way south slowly but surely. It now appears it will be in North Central into Central and finally South Central Florida between midnight though 9AM, and over direct Central somewhere between 4AM- 8AM (models differ). It also appears again to be a very shallow boundary with SW-WSW winds not too far off the surface. In that sense, the cloud cover is extensive with plentiful moisture associated with the front and behind it for a change rather than ahead of it. 

As noted the other day, this could set the stage for a pretty nasty day tomorrow near I-4 and north working southward with time. Cloud cover if not fully over Central Florida already at sunrise will be shortly thereafter with increasing chances of 'drizzle' and light rain. South Florida might also get in some heavier rainfall from a discombobulated pre-frontal trough.

Warmest temperatures on Wednesday might be those either before sunrise or shortly thereafter depending on the front's timing, but wouldn't expect it to warm much much if not become cooler all day, particularly if we started getting any form of  precipitation. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs (warmer south) and colder north.

The only change so far is concerning Thursday. The GFS is now showing this day to be the day with heavier rainfall (who knows, maybe a few rumbles of thunder) as mid level lift in an already over-running situation (cold air at ground but almost warmer above in association with the WSW winds)..would make for low clouds, fog, maybe some heavier rain, and maybe even some thunder. The latest Melbourne NWS forecast put it well, "If you ever wanted to know what the weather in Seattle is like, now might be your chance".

THURSDAY: Thus, Thursday might be the overall worst of the next two days with little change in temperature  the entire time. The worst is looking to pull out to the east overnight with partial clearing on Friday and much warmer, though possibly a bit cloudy at times yet still since we never fully see dry air, especially south of I-4.

THIS WEEKEND: The GFS is showing near to above record high temperatures by Sunday (already). Another front is poised to pass through but it would be  a backdoor front with winds immediately easterly behind it with a cool down to near to maybe a tad below normal but nothing outrageous at all.
It is looking to remain either very warm to near normal up through day 10 February if even another front goes through least as of the last couple runs of the GFS. We might have seen the worst of winter now...time will tell.

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