"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Later Day Onset Central./South, But Will It Happen?

Questionable Area Today Runs from North Brevard to
 North Tampa Bay and South (Big Time)
TODAY: Not much change from yesterday other than there is no apparent tendency for the rains to be edge southward compared to this time yesterday and the deepest atmospheric moisture has lifted north a bit.
In a sense, this puts Brevard County in the position that Indian River and St. Lucie Counties were in yesterday. Further inland, the position gets even more questionable in regard to rainfall potential.

Otherwise, given that activity attempt to the south of I-4  appears will occur later and be more dependant upon outflow from activity currently in place north, instability could be albe to build up a bit better further south and the sea breezes will have an infinitesimal chance of developing as well but remain glued well east of I95 if not even US1. Therefore, best chance of stronger storms or even a storm at all is noted above in purple, but on the other hand due to extenuating circumstance, the same area and south has a chance to see little but a rain shower if the sea breezes can't kick in, noting that virtually no model is showing rain to break out today much of anywhere other than where it is already raining and perhaps over the Everglades west of the Miami metros other than some sprinkles toward East Central. We can see how the models do with the situation either way given that the morning GFS showed nothing to be occurring now where it is currently raining. Not worth much then is it? Insert Frowning Smiley face here. 

TOMORROW: Once again guidance is not generous with the rain chances but the GFS implies a sea breeze south of the Cape for the most part, so perhaps it is not taken into consideration a well enough uplifting mechanism to make very happy tall clouds that produce big booms. 

UFO over Jetty Park, Cape Canaveral
Again, the next model run which will be arriving in the next hour on this end might spell a different story, but for now given it is showing sufficient moisture so will go with a chance of storms of better proportions in the vertical extent near the east coast than has been the case lately. No cooling aloft though as those temperatures have remained within a 2 degree range for days now.

BEYOND: Increasing rain chances going toward week's end pretty sure with perhaps a change in the winds coming early next week. Guidance of the GFS is showing the ridge to lift north of the state as a tropical wave passes to the south, but exactly how far north it will lift and for how long goes beyond  model reliability if not even after only day 4. The GFS has shown long term easterlies setting up though which puts an end to late afternoon thunderstorms east half of state going out into day 10, but seems to be wavering on that even as of the 2AM model run.

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