Ah yes...the sun is shining nicely shortly before noon today, and that's a good thing if you want it to rain late today or tonight? That might sound odd, but it's a good thing (for that to occur). With good, unfiltered sunlight, the land mass will heat up nicely today and set up for a sea breeze this afternoon, which earlier was questionable. However, even with the current south winds it has an onshore component out here on the Cape. The big fly in the ointment for today is how much moisture can we work into the 700mb layer..which is still quite profoundly dry. With a better sea breeze we have low level wind convergence with the prevailing SW flow aloft...giving rise to the air at the low levels (convection). Other than the dry slot aloft...we are Good To Go for some 'boom booms' very late today and tonight.
A frontal boundary remains 'dormant' across the extreme northern panhandle at this time, and will remain there until it gets a good push from the next system to move into the Plains mid-week...at which point it will be shoved south by Thursday morning. But in the meantime, other than that little dry slot...we are set up for thunderstorms today through Wednesday..most assuredly (speaking) for Tuesday. Today is just sort of the 'warming up' to the idea period...if the atmosphere will succumb to such thoughts that is.
But for today, model data is all in agreement that it will be the east coast from the Cape and points south along I-95 and points east and around the Big Lake that will have the best chances of a storm. For the Cape area it looks like it will be almost any time is possible after 5pm...well into the night. Doesn't mean it actually will rain, but the potential does exist. So for those lightning photographers this could mean some good news is in the offing for this evening. And in the meantime, pull out the iced tea and sunscreen, coz it's going to be a warm one, especially tomorrow with 90 degree temperatures over most all of central and southern Florida.
About the only effect the front will have either late Wednesday or overnight into Thursday will be to shift the wind around to the northeast and dry out the overall air mass with shower activity restricted to the most southern areas near the Lake. But there are hints that ample moisture might reside regardless for some coastal nocturnal showers, so I'm not jumping on the "all's clear" bandwagon just yet! Stay tuned to your official forecasts for the latest until tomorrow's post.