"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 22, 2016

Risk Of Marginally - Severe Storms North/Central Wednesday - Much Cooler for Several Days

Sunrise , Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Warming and moistening trend continues through Wednesday afternoon with highs inland toward 80F today but closer to mid-upper 70Fs right at the beaches. Southeast - South wind this afternoon with increasing moisture mainly toward the east side of the state south of I-4. Chance of a light sprinkle from Southwest Florida toward the east coast of Brevard/Indian River much later today if not toward mid-evening (or merely increased cloud cover).

TUESDAY: Warmer with highs in many areas in the upper 70Fs - low 80Fs. Low pressure forming over SW Texas will begin to strengthen and RAPIDLY at that in the next 24-72 hours as it moves east then NE-NNE near the Appalachian chain bringing the whole gamut of weather variables with it along and ahead of it's trek up and down the eastern seaboard and the Smoky Mountains all the way up to Maine and back west toward the Great Lakes Region. This low pressure system is going to be HUGE.

For Florida, chance of showers and 'maybe' a thunderstorm toward Brevard/Volusia County late in the date due to convergence along the east coast us upper level winds begin to increase significantly with cold air aloft, though the surface based instability is so far forecast to be quite meager. 

Better chance of thunder might end up being offshore, but regardless even a good shower could contain surprisingly gusty winds in and near such activity some time after 2-3PM toward dark if they are able to materialize. The bigger story though will be warm temperatures even if cloud cover is present.

WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs in lower - mid 80Fs depending on cloud cover with a very breezy SW wind. 

Frontal boundary from attendant CYCLO-BOMBING low pressure system it now appears (rapid decrease in central pressure) will move across the state from early day through mid-late afternoon.

 Instability on the GFS model guidance is not shown to be but meager but much more per the NAM. Given the wind fields and temperatures aloft will highlight regions between the purple lines as having a chance of severe wind gusts (or more) with the better chance near to north of I-4. Have included south of I-4 as suspect better instability might be found there given the later point in time of day and storms 'might' be moving in as well as that winds are sufficient aloft for such type of activity. 

Any rainfall totals should be low and so far looking at less than an inch of even less than 1/2" due to quick storm motion. 

SPC  (The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK) and local NWS Offices are monitoring the situation and local news stations I suspect will begin to CHIME IN by early afternoon Wednesday if not sooner if conditions warrant. 
(for the previous event Channel 7 , WFTV in Orlando, had good coverage as did Channel 13).

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much cooler to cold mornings.

 Friday and Saturday mornings look to be the coldest with lows in the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30Fs inland/north with afternoons barely eking out 60F though the GFS might be over-estimating how cold the afternoons will be given the sun angle is becoming increasingly higher and days are getting longer. 

Saturday now looks to be the overall coldest day as at least one if not two additional frontal boundaries could transparently move through with no effects other than to re-enforce the lower temperature regime that will be put in place for several days. 

Cat on a Concrete Path

This upcoming system is the Second of a kind (from the one last week) and thoughts are now we might be seeing another one rearing it's stormy thunderheads in about a week after this one; though too soon to say,  the trend seems to be on and they often come in threes. 

Looking at the latest GFS now coming out as I type, indeed, it is showing another system late next Wednesday and/or Thursday time frame. 

Otherwise, all should be nearly dry after Wednesday afternoon for quite a number of days but very cool to cold until Sunday afternoon.

No comments: