"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Chance of Isolated Thunder, Perhaps an Isolated "Strong" Event Near Coast

 TODAY: No big surprises, namely that there ARE surprises which was expected. The image two below will depict what 'might' occur as the mid-level trough east of the Mississippi River would start to deepen, but not to depend on that. That being, mid-level impulses forming which could impact the state mainly north and near Central Florida (at indeterminable time frames) with the first one doing so at this time as a section of storm activity near Ocala.  Depending on when or if each one reaches the state and any one area will greatly skew model guidance.

Winds just above 'the deck' today are strong enough to likely prevent the East Coast Sea breeze from forming north of the 528 Cswy and south of there it should remain (if it forms) within 1 mile of the coast at most,  except perhaps further south toward Ft pierce or so.  This is some upper level energy and deeper moisture north half of state though, and that combined with outflow from the earlier day activity could throw a wrench in model guidance in regard to where it depicts 'what' and at what time. This image below shows all of the above, but timing is questionable  Observe that the earlier in the day any storm activity approaches and area such as Southern Volusia toward Orlando and then Brevard, the less likely it is that it would be 'strong' activity, perhaps only showers. The better chances of thunder outside of the current activity is after 3pm.

 BEYOND: With some impulses crossing the Southeast states and likely more to come from the western Great Lakes region, expect that each day will be in question.  Tomorrow will be another day of  "will the sea breeze even form?" as perhaps will be Thursday. That is important to know for without the east coast sea breeze, stronger activity or even thunder becomes less likely.   The weekend, beginning Friday, at a quick glance looks like it could become quite active in the mid afternoons to late day and early evening with sea breeze convergence activity well pronounced as upper level winds begin to decrease. The frontal boundary in the Southeast States that has been discussed before is not showing to read the FLorida/Georgia Border, and even the latest GFS shows it in frontalysis across Central Florida manifesting as an afternoon 'heat low' at the surface which could spark stronger storms. That might be over-done.