"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Very Sketchy Blog-Cast - Possible Potent Storms "At the Coast"?

TODAY: Very iffy forecast today. Some models show most of the rains today south half of the state whereas another shows just the opposite to be the case.

In either case, guidance shows unusually higher than normal Energy Helicity Index values from mainly Brevard County and north along and just offshore the coast which is about the only consistent factor. The short range guidance shows way too dry over South Florida today for much of anything to happen but MIA says to the image covers both bases but with hesitancy.

The contributing factors for 'unusual activity' near the coast would be the combination of colder air aloft combined with the EHI as noted as well as a sea breeze potential south of the Cape. Additionally, there is slightly stronger winds aloft today for some slight 'evacuation' and tilting of updrafts.

 If one were to put all guidance together and average it out Brevard County coast to Southern Volusia would have the greatest chance of a strong storm, with possibly a waterspout off shore any where from there to the north but said   'with great hesitancy'. 

Otherwise, outside of any rains..very warm today with wide spread low-mid 90Fs prior to cloud cover.  

BEYOND: Earlier NAM guidance 'suggests' again the potential for another day like today on Wednesday with a shift in characterizations going into Thursday and Friday as the large scale pattern makes some subtle shifting around. 

The repercussions of these subtleties cannot be fully foreseen with much confidence as again guidance is inconsistent in the precipitation fields especially oscillating anywhere from almost no rain anywhere to between isolated and scattered coverage (favoring the east side for stronger storms if so but working more inland going to late week and especially the weekend.

WEEKEND: Latest guidance over night at least wasn't as steadfast on favoring only far Interior and west but more 'down the middle' for rain chances with more of a southerly rather than easterly flow setting up at the lower levels. Time will tell in the next few days what will be closer to the truth of the matter.

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