"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 19, 2010

It's In the Details

(Image: Last vestiges of the only blip on the radar within 100 miles near the tip of the Kennedy Space Center Cape at 10am this Monday morning)
In the broad scheme of things nothing has changed from past days, but as expected could happen, there is currently a minor, unforecasted and probably only temporary change in local conditions which will affect many areas at different times today across Central Florida.

NOW: The latest KSC sounding was released and the verdict is in. The 700mb temperature has dropped about 2 degrees C and moisture (PWAT) has increased to nearly 2". Pretty significant. Additionally, some weak PVA (positive vorticity advection) is occurring overhead. As a result, some blips on the radar screen have popped up around Cape Canaveral the past hour and there was some increase in low level cumulus clouds along the coast. The Tampa sounding also showed in increase in moisture. It should be noted that none of the models indicated this unfolding of events would occur until about the latest RUC run which just came out. Better late than never I guess. Even still, the NAM did not pick up on it, just to show how small scale this is.

TODAY: There appears to be an axis of increased moisture stretching from near Sarasota to just off the coast of the Cape. LDIS plots show this nicely. Believe this swath first made its presence none very early this morning as showers moved onshore near West Palm Beach well before sunrise. Since that time that 'disturbance', if you will, has moved north and is now stretched across the entire Central Peninsula. Along this moisture axis is some PVA as well. Just how long these conditions will remain locally is the clincher for the forecast. Believe that by early-mid afternoon these conditions will move on or simply dissipate and we will be back to status quo along the immediate coast. But before that time some land falling rain showers could occur from Sebastian to Daytona but mostly likely from Melbourne Beach to Oak Hill. Not expecting thunder though.

MID-LATE AFTERNOON: The coast of East Central Florida will probably clear of rain chances, but the inland areas west of the spine of the state as well as from roughly West Palm to Miami further south will maintain some precipitation chance integrity through the day's remainder. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along the immediate West Coast where any sea breeze that can develop will remain very close to the coast. Tampa Bay preferred.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY: The general pattern of dry weather will continue across East Central Florida, although the possibility of another 'event' such as what is currently occurring overhead is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. Hence, daily if not hourly vigilance (for the 'super weather minded') will be the rule. Temperature wise -- Low around 80 and high near 90 (slightly warmer inland) throughout the period.

THIS COMING WEEKEND: A tropical wave roughly in the vicinity of Puerto Rico is forecast to approach South Florida on Saturday. Two consecutive runs of the NAM have tightened the disturbance up to nearly a low grade tropical depression, whereas the GFS only recognizes it in the future to remain a mere perturbation (wave). Believe the NAM is overdone for a variety of reasons, but it will be interesting to see which model was correct as we enter the late Wednesday time frame to see how things have progressed (or not progressed).

Either way, this area of interests poses the first real possibility of change in the broad picture which has existed over this area for a while now. Other than this area, there are no tremendous changes forthcoming. Our weather from late Wednesday - Friday will be highly contingent upon what type of organization, if any, the area acquires. Odd as it may seem, the better it gets organized the lower the rain chances go until it actually reaches the state. At worst, rain chances could increase to around 40-50 percent...with higher chances the further south one goes. And on the other end of the spectrum there will be no change from what we've already been experiencing. If I had to hedge my bets though, I'd go for the gold and say we'll see that increase in rain chances...especially on Saturday.

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